The 2024 General Election which is going to begin tomorrow, is all set to throw the biggest mandate ever. And the case for the PM Modi-led NDA alliance appears genuine too, all based on its fulfillment of commitment and beyond.

Let me list out a few deliveries that have created this unprecedented pro-incumbency.

From 12 crore toilets to 11 crore tap water connections, from 10 crore LPG connections to 33 crore Ayushman Health Cards, dealing more than 6 crore surgeries. From 43 crore Mudra loans to 50 crore plus Jan Dhan accounts. From 4 crores plus homes for the poor to pulling 25 crores plus citizens out of multidimensional poverty. Every delivery has changed people’s lives. Who can forget that when the worst hit the world, a billion plus Indians were administered vaccines, twice. Even on economic parameters, the GDP per capita increased from Rs.3800 to Rs.6400, the inflation came down from above 10% to less than 5%, and the FDIs increased from 305 billion to 650 billion USD. The electrification of railways, the cleanliness of railway stations, the Vande Bharat Express, Metros, unprecedented increase in the number of airports, major Expressways, and roadways. The 10 years of PM Modi’s governance have changed the outlook of India.

The way India dealt with both friendly and enemy countries, today Indians feel proud. Given the context, I have no reason to believe that the Indian electorates are stupid to not acknowledge that when they are voting to choose their preferred government, except those who vote primarily for their identity.

On that ground, we proceed to predict the prospects of the four biggest states, this election.

21. MAHARASHTRA [ 48 Seats]

Among the 48 constituencies of Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine repeated its 2014 tally winning 41 seats (BJP – 23, SS – 18) while the rivals Congress and NCP bagged only 1 and 4 seats respectively.

This time, from the MVA, Congress is contesting on 17 seats, while the NCP(SP) on 10 seats, leaving the majority 21 with SS(UT). Both the INC allies have been weakest since inception. Both parties are only left with the top leaders, with entire cadre being moved away from beneath their noses.

In Maharashtra, national security and steps against terrorism are the most critical issues in the urban areas, but in rural and tribal areas the people are more concerned about their basic needs. BJP is banking on its excellent groundwork both by the Central Government as well as the recent failure of the MVA Govt.

The BJP-SS-NCP Yuti is confident that change has happened, and people are responding positively with an expectation that more good work will happen when they come back to power again.

INDI Block has an uphill task with its top functional leaders moving to the NDA – from Murali Deora to Ashok Chavan after Shinde, Ajit Powar, and Chhagan Bhujbal handed brutal blows to the MVA.

Let us focus on some key constituencies where the contest is close.

Of the 27 seats BJP is declared to contest, it is retaining 25. The 2 seats having close contest are Chandrapur and Palghar. While INC is expected to retain Chandrapur, Palghar is a traditional BJP seat. BJP has not yet announced a candidate. Rajendra Gavit, who won the seat for BJP in 2014, and SS in 2019, is likely to contest and should retain the seat.

Of the 4 seats NCP is declared to contest, it is certainly retaining Ragadh and Shirur. The two seats it faces contest are Osmanabad and Baramati. SS(UT) has the upper hand in Osmanabad. In Baramati, Supriya Sule won the seat against BJP with a margin of 1.5 lakh votes. If Ajit Powar can manage even 20% of NCP votes to its side, Baramati is up for a super surprise.

Of the 10 seats SS is declared to contest, it is retaining 8. The 2 seats having close contest are Ramtek and Hingoli.

Parbhani, which is being contested by on NDA’s behalf, is also up for a tight contest. Likely SS(UT) should sail through.

Of the remaining 6 seats, where the NDA has not yet declared who (both party and candidate) is contesting, AIMIM should retain Aurangabad with other saffron parties fighting neck to neck. Rajan Vichare contesting Thane from SS(UT) and winning seat since 2014. But this being Sushil Shindde’s bastion, the contest should be severe. Nasik also is up for a tough close fight so is Mumbai North-west. If NDA finalises Milind Deora from Mumbai South, it can clinch the seat from SS(UT)’s Arvind Sawant. The SS(UBT) is likely to retain the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg.

[NDA – 42 (BJP 27, SS 11, NCP 4); INDI – 5 – {SS(UT) 3, INC 1, NCP(SP) 1}; AIMIM – 1]

 

31. Tamil Nadu [39 Seats]

No state is looked upon as curiously as Tamil Nadu in this election. There’s an obvious political churn in a state which remained a stronghold for regional Dravidian parties since 1967 with no national party able to establish a foothold here. The situation appears fluid more so because of the demise of both Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi, within two years of each other, which has left a vacuum in the state famous for personality cults.

Of the 39 constituencies, from the incumbent INDI Alliance DMK is contesting on 22 seats, Congress - 9 seats, Left Parties – 4 seats, VCK – 2, and IUML, MDMK one seat each.

From the NDA Alliance BJP is contesting 23, PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) 10, Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) - 3, TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK - 2, and expelled AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam is fighting from 1 seat.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha Election, the BJP, and its ally PMK managed to win one seat each while 37 other seats were won by Jayalalitha-led AIADMK. Before Jayalalithaa's death in December 2016, AIADMK also won the 2016 assembly election without any major alliance. However, in the absence of Jayalalitha, the AIADMK fought the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2021 Assembly election, in alliance with the BJP and could win only one LS seat and lost the assembly election too.

Given that context, the break-up with AIADMK is a good thing for the BJP to grow and strike out on its own strength. BJP now has two breakaway factions of the AIADMK, a party of the Most Backward Class group of Vanniars – the PMK, and TMC of GK Vasan.

The DMK occupies the pole position in the state, and the efforts of other parties are to consolidate the anti-DMK vote banks. To that extent, the support bases of the AIADMK and the BJP can shift easily from one to the other, especially from AIADMK in the absence of a charismatic leader. Tamil Nadu politics might at last be witnessing a churn with a determined push by the BJP to claim the status of the only viable alternative to the DMK.

This sustained push has a background, that would appear like a serious long-term game plan. It all started when a usually captivating and fiery orator, the prime minister was discomforted during his speech in 2018 when he was greeted with the “Go Back Modi” slogan. From that date, PM Modi has made Tamil Nadu his political mission.

However, it wasn’t only political. How to integrate society with thoughtful and innovative ideas is PM Modi’s core vision. Notably, the Prime Minister in an address to the United Nations in 2019 in the United States had spoken in Tamil and expressed his regret for not learning the "world's oldest language."

That was the first move towards invoking Tamil pride, aimed to bridge the divisive North-South binary. PM Modi’s pursuit of the philosophy of national integration has been evident in regularly holding Kashi Tamil Sangamam events in Varanasi, followed by the Saurashtra Tamil Sangamam. And then came the rise of Sengol – the ceremony of the installation of the Sengol in the New Parliament led by PM Modi with Tamil acharyas - a game-changing moment.

While Modi is an astute political strategist, there is also a nationalist side to him. He truly believes in his "Ek Bharat Shreshta Bharat” slogan because it encompasses his vision for India as a united cultural entity.

Modi has been to the state on more than 10 occasions. Modi’s whirlwind tours to Tamil Nadu, signal that the BJP is serious to make inroads into Tamil Nadu. Modi’s massive roadshow along with BJP state president K Annamalai and BJP candidates in Chennai, where the crowd was heard chanting “We want Modi again,” and not “Go back Modi”.

BJP’s Tamil Nadu BJP chief, K Annamala, has everything in him, for the party to not set the goal for the second place, but to come into power. Last year, when DMK leaders stoked controversy with adverse remarks about Sanatana Dharma, Annamalai intensified attacks on the ruling DMK. Annamalai was also credited for his 'expose' of DMK’s corruption. His 'En Mann, En Makkal' yatra across the state garnered a great amount of traction, and to aid his confidence, PM Modi held a public rally in Annamalai's support in Tiruppur in February.

Bringing the uninhabited island of Katchatheevu - a sensitive issue for the TN fishing community, into the Lok Sabha election narrative, has indeed given the BJP an emotive issue. BJP’s new allies include the PMK led by S. Ramadoss, and his sizeable Vanniyar caste has always been an X factor in Tamil Nadu politics.

Lately, Owaisi has made a pact with AIADMK and made a call to its Muslim brothers to vote for AIADMK. I do not see much shift in Muslim votes after this call. But if there’s any shift of Muslim votes towards AIADMK, it is going to hurt DMK badly, eventually helping the BJP. Owaisi has done this in the Seemanchal area of Bihar too.

BJP is set to significantly increase its vote share to 22-25% in the state. Besides winning 6-8 seats, the party aspires to challenge the Dravidian pole position in the coming assembly election in 2026.

SEATS BJP IS TARGETING

South Chennai: The BJP has been fielding candidates for the South Chennai Lok Sabha seat since 1991, except in 2019. This time, BJP’s Tamizhisai Soundararajan, who resigned from the post of governor of Telangana, has been pitted against DMK’s Tamizhisai Thangapandian, and AIADMK’s J Jayavardhan. In 2014, fighting against the Dravidian parties, BJP managed to get 24.57% vote share.

Vellore: The BJP had 33.26% of votes in 2014. In 2019 its ally AIADMK contested this seat. The skyrocketing increase in the percentage of BJP’s votes is largely attributed to Shanmugam, who left the AIADMK in the early 2000s and floated Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK). This time, he is contesting on the BJP symbol.

Perambalur: Just like Vellore, Perambalur is another key seat for the BJP this year. The party fielded only one candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Paarivendhar secured 23.2% of the votes in that election.

Coimbatore: It has been considered a traditional constituency of the BJP since 1989. From 3.34% of votes in 1989 to winning the seat two times in 1998 and 1999 with a vote share of 55.85% and 49.21%, respectively. Though the party could not win since 1999, it managed to secure a considerable vote percentage of 38.74%, 33.62% and 31.47% in 2004, 2014 and 2019 elections, respectively. This time BJP has fielded Annamalai in Coimbatore.

Nilgiris: The seat became BJP’s stronghold in the late 1990s when it started winning the seats in 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections, with 46.49% and 50.73% of votes, respectively. Its vote share began to dwindle since then. This time, Union Minister of state L Murugan from BJP has created a lot of buzz against former Union minister A Raja of DMK and AIADMK’s Lokesh Tamizh Selvan.

Virudhunagar: Radhika Sarathkumar, wife of actor-turned-politician Sarathkumar, who merged his Samathuva Makkal Katchi with the BJP is contesting from Virudhunagar.

Kanyakumari: BJP always secured second place in this constituency since 2004 with a consistent vote share around 35%. This time BJP has fielded the same candidate Pon Radhakrishnan against incumbent Vijay Vasanth of INC.

[ NDA – 8-10 (BJP – 6-8); INDI – 24-26, (DMK 18-20, INC – 4-6, Oth – 1-2); AIADMK – 4-6]

 

34. UTTAR PRADESH [ 80 Seats]

An excellent performance by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh will be crucial for Modi to return to power with a solid mandate. The sheer size and the scale of the BJP’s triumph in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and also in the 2017 and 2021 assembly elections is enough to suggest that the support of UP Janta for BJP and its leaders Modi and Yogi is only growing every day.

BJP’s overwhelming support base is an outcome of three factors: a strong Modi Wave, extraordinary Hindu vote consolidation, and fragmented opposition.

A similarly commanding performance by the BJP in 2019 securing 50% votes, despite former foes SP and BSP joining forces has silenced all its critics. Remember, RLD also with them had significantly increased the index of opposition unity with a pre-poll pact. But nothing worked.

This time BJP also has managed a very tactical alliance with RLD, Apna Dal, Sanjay Nishad and Om Prakash Rajbhar.

On the other hand, SP is allied with a weaker Congress, while BSP has chosen to go solo. This makes the INDI alliance much weaker than the last time.

Arithmetic and Chemistry

BJP’s vote share of 50% in 2019 against a united opposition is the highest any party has managed after the 1984 elections. The BSP and the SP had a combined vote share of 44% but it is divided.

If one were to believe in arithmetic, the BJP's UP tally could go up significantly.

However, the Muslim voters would consolidate against the BJP in support of the INDI alliance. The criticality of the community can be understood from the fact that most Muslims will vote tactically for that candidate or party, that would be able to defeat BJP. However, there is enough evidence that a small portion of the Muslim vote is likely to vote for the NDA and some will be split because of the SP-BSP contesting separately.

Congress is far weaker than it ever was in UP, and there isn’t any sign of a significant revival. The entire Gandhi clan reluctant to contest even in their family bastion of Amethi and Rae Bareli, tells the ground reality of Congress.

On the other hand, BJP has achieved a Hindu rainbow consolidation comprising Upper-castes, Baniyas, non-Yadav OBCs, and non-Jatav Dalits and is a hugely more popular party in UP than ever before and is expected to only increase its vote share.

Modi Factor

There is also a surge in support for both Prime Minister Modi and CM Yogi, and the momentum is heavily in favour of NDA. While PM Modi, in rally after rally, will talk about the work done by his government, CM Yogi Adityanath is mobilising the RSS/BJP cadre, asserting the Hindu conscience to hold BJP's core voters.

The biggest factor however is going to be the “Ram Janmbhumi Consecration’ and the spark would be much more widespread than the post-Pulwama retaliation had created in 2019.

I have travelled across UP even before the Janmabhumi consecration. BJP leadership has managed to convince its supporters that Modi and Yogi will stand by them and galvanised the poor across caste lines. Every household has received some or the other direct benefit - (House, Gas, Electricity, Bank Account, Ayushman card, Toilets, etc.) in terms of necessities of everyday life that shockingly didn't happen in the last 70yrs.

The BJP-led NDA is comfortably way ahead of the INDI block in both vote share and momentum. While it should go beyond 55% in vote share, it should also up the seat tally from 2014, its best performance so far.

Key Constituencies where there can be a close contest-

Firozabad – BJP’s Dr Chandrasen Jadon defeated SP-BSP combined candidate, incumbent from 2014 -Akshay Yadav with a margin of over 30 thousand votes. This time, BSP is also in the fray and BJP should win with a bigger margin.

Mainpuri: It is a typical SP home bastion that the incumbent Dimple Yadav should win comfortably.

Badaun: Another typical SP seat, that was breached by BJP in 2019 by Modi wave and by putting up a tactical Shakya candidate – Sanghmitra Maurya. This time too BJP has put Durvijay Singh Sakya from this seat. The fight would be very close, SP has an edge.

Moradabad: The demography of the constituency is in favour of SP. SP’s ST Hassan won this seat against BJP’s 2014 incumbent Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar Singh. However, in 2019, BSP was allied with SP. This year, BSP is putting up a Muslim candidate Irfan Saifi, against SP’s new candidate Ruchi Veera, giving an edge to BJP’s Sarvesh Kumar Singh.

Rampur: SP’s Azam Khan defeated BJP’s Jaya Prada in the 2019 election, which BJP’s Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi reclaimed in the 2022 by-election when Azam Khan was debarred. This year both SP and BSP have put up Muslim candidates, giving BJP an edge over its rivals.

Sambhal: In 2014, BJP won this seat in a triangular contest with a thin margin of 5000 votes. In 2019, with BSP as an ally, SP’s Shafiqur Rehman won with 70 thousand plus votes. This time the seat will witness a triangular contest, but the BSP is much weaker than in 2014. SP is likely to win this seat.

Rae Bareli: Without Congress family biggies contesting this seat, it has opened new contest. Though Sonia Gandhi won this seat in last 3 elections, every time the margin shrunk in favour of the BJP. None of the parties have declared their candidates. This seat is up for grabs.

Kannauj: BJP’s Subrat Pathak defeated Dimple Yadav of SP in 2019 despite BSP being an ally. SP has not yet declared its candidate against Subrat Pathak. BJP should retain this seat.

Azamgarh: A typical SP bastion of the Yadav family with a lot of Yadav population. Despite, riding on the Modi wave, Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ lost to Akhilesh Yadav in 2019 with a huge margin. However, ‘Nirahua’ won the seat in the 2022 by-poll against SP’s Dharmendar Yadav. Both are fighting again against each other. The fight would be tough.

Muzaffarnagar: BJP’s Sanjeev Balyan has been winning this seat comfortably. However, RLD’s Chowdhary Ajit Singh gave him a tough fight in 2019. With RLD an ally of NDA, Sanjeev Balyan should win this seat with a minimum 3 lakh margin.

[NDA – 75, (BJP – 70, RLD – 2, AD – 2, Rajbhar – 1); INDI – 5, (SP 4, INC -1)]

 

36. WEST BENGAL The party fielded Maneka Gandhi from Sultanpur, while Uttar Pradesh minister Jitin Prasada has replaced Varun Gandhi in Pilibhit. Sita Soren will fight from Dumka (Jharkhand).

[42 Seats]

As India's most politically violent state prepares for another fiery general election, the heated and dramatic campaign of both the TMC and BJP cadre makes it a fascinating watch.

Historically the Bengal assembly elections are always a bloody battlefield. In the last couple of years, we have read scores of stories about political killings. The spectacular level of violence and rigging has always been a deterrent in Bengal Politics. The state machinery tends to work as political party machinery and every political force in the government uses this well-oiled system to its advantage to remain in power. That is why Bengalis prefer not to be seen voting for a losing opposition. But when they decide so, they make sure that the political outfit in governance never comes back to power again.

After the triumph of the BJP in 2019, all eyes were set on the 2021 Assembly election for BJP to do even better. This author had also predicted a massive gain for BJP and Mamata Banerjee to lose power in the state. However, the only rider was the quantum of rigging that happens. We all know what happened during and after the election. It was a blood bath post-election.

The mood of the state was well-read, though. BJP increased its vote share and seats many folds despite industrial-level rigging.

Despite accusations of leaving their cadre and leaders to fend for themselves, the BJP has been working rigorously at the ground level in the state of West Bengal. Since 2021, Mamata Banerjee has been on a slippery slope. Its leaders getting caught on camera with huge piles of cash, to its high-profile leaders being charged by the court for immorality in parliament. The charges are continuous which has created very bad optics of Mamata’s TMC.

If that was not enough, the ugly truth of Sandeshkhali has put the local TMC government to shame. The whole of India witnessed the on-camera horror of Sandeshkhali. The women weren’t showing their faces out of fear but were not scared to speak up. While the perpetrator Shahjahan Sheikh was still not arrested, Mamata and her party came out in full support of him with full brazenness.

It’s the Singur Moment for Mamata Banerjee.... if BJP can play it perfectly to carry the message to the entire state, it's game over for Mamata Banerjee.

With the horrors and sins of Sandeshkhali, the winds of change are blowing at a historical speed in the state. The misrule of TMC is resonating across Bengal, leading to acute and unprecedented anti-incumbency. It’s so acute that if a fair election happens, TMC won’t cross even a double-digit mark. But the brazen rigging and unprecedented violence echo that the law & order is in complete shambles and offers a chance for the party to hold back. If the TMC cadre can attack ED and NIA officials in the open, imagine what they can do in the dark.

Beyond the lawlessness, what is driving this election is Mamata's politics of ridiculous appeasement. Brazenly lying and opposing the CAA is just an example.

The way things are developing, Mamata is perpetually giving a confusing signal to her party cadre. The same TMC workers who were attacking the "Jai Shri Ram" slogans were seen taking Ram Navami Procession.

Pollsters cannot gaze at what a well-organized party cadre can do. BJP had no presence in Bengal politics before the 2014 General Elections. And if there is anyone whom Mamata can blame for this unreal surge of BJP in Bengal, it is her and her queen-size ego.

At present, Modi's popularity in Bengal, both as the leader and the tangible deliverer of a positive change, is at an all-time high. Once he starts his massive rallies in Bengal, people will start feeling the ground reality. PM Modi alone can win a sizeable chunk of votes based on his personality and people's non-fading expectations.

Mamata's last hope is that Muslim votes remain polarized, and she gets a significant chunk. Most Muslims votes in the state are unlikely to split and will vote tactically for that candidate or Party that can defeat the BJP.

However, these developments and Mamata's brazen appeasement politics have resulted in acute sentiments among Hindus, especially where the Muslim population is more than 25-30%, and will further polarize in favour of the BJP.

This election is a wave election fuelled by a perfect mix of frustration and aspiration and a powerful, over-the-board cultural and civilisational assertion. On the 4^th of June, we will witness how swiftly Bengal rose and fought against blatant appeasement and gross misrule.

[BJP – 25, TMC 17, INC -0]

If my reading of this election is right, Abki Baar Rajiv Gandhi’s 414 Paar.