Whenever the top leadership of Congress has found the going tough in North India, they have looked south beyond the Vindhyas and always found Karnataka offering them solace. 1978 saw former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi winning a bypoll from Chikkamagalur to enter the Lok Sabha. Little over 20 years later, 1999 saw Sonia Gandhi winning from Bellary against Sushma Swaraj. 20 more years have passed and there are talks of Rahul Gandhi contesting from Karnataka. This article tries to understand what happened in the previous 2 occasions and also if Karnataka will pave a new path for Rahul Gandhi to enter the 17th Lok Sabha.

There have been multiple reports in the past 3-4 days indicating that the top Congress leaders from Karnataka have requested Rahul Gandhi to contest from Karnataka in the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. Former CM Siddaramaiah tweeted asking Rahul Gandhi to contest from any constituency in Karnataka. Within a day, the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (under the leadership of Dinesh Gundu Rao) formally invited Rahul Gandhi to contest from the state. Well, this was not completely out of the blue, as I had mentioned this in my earlier articles in Jan 2018 and April 2018 in the runup to the assembly elections in Karnataka.

All these rumours and heresy are based on the 2 astounding successes Rahul Gandhi’s mother and grandmother have found – almost equating both to political rebirths to them. It is due to this fact that the Karnataka Congress fondly remembers its contribution in keeping their leadership flying high. We need to look at both these victories to understand how the people of Karnataka relented to stand by the then-shamed leadership of Congress.

Karnataka had chosen to support Indira Gandhi despite the evil of Emergency

Indira Gandhi had imposed emergency across the country in 1975 leading to large scale resentment across the country. But the anger was more palpable in the north. When the emergency was lifted and elections were held subsequently in 1977, the combined opposition under the leadership of Janata Party’s Jayaprakash Narayan routed the Congress. The people had spoken decisively. Indira Gandhi herself had to face ignominy when she lost from her stronghold of Rae Bareli against Raj Narain of Bharatiya Lok Dal by more than 55000 votes. In fact such was the anger against the Congress party, that all the 85 seats of undivided Uttar Pradesh were won by Bharatiya Lok Dal party (Congress drew a big zero!!). Such was the margin of defeat for the party in the state that in 1971, the Congress party had won 73 out of 85 seats!

Humiliated, Indira Gandhi searched for a way to get back into Lok Sabha. 1977’s election had shown that Congress was still strong in southern states like Karnataka where it had still won 26 of 28 seats losing just 2 to Bharatiya Lok Dal. 57% of the votes cast in Karnataka were for the Congress party while BLD captured 40% of the votes. Karnataka had given Congress something to cheer about. One such safe seat was Chikkamagalur where a young Congressman D B Chandre Gowda had won (he had won in 1971 too). He volunteered to vacate his seat and resigned (wishing to get closer to the party high command) allowing Indira Gandhi to contest in a bypoll. Indira Gandhi won the seat by a margin of over 77000 votes and entered the 6^th Lok Sabha. While Janata Party was popular in North India, Congress was still popular in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The Congress government in Karnataka under the able leadership of Devaraj Urs was extremely popular in the state. While the state unit of the Congress party was in glee that they were able to get their madam a victory and ensure her smooth passage into Lok Sabha, Indira Gandhi quickly forgot about the constituency.

In the next general elections in 1980, Indira Gandhi returned back to her time-tested bastion of Rae Bareli and won a handsome victory against a split opposition. Indira Gandhi had used Chikkamagalur and Karnataka like a use-and-throw commodity, never to look back again. Karnataka had been short-changed. However, the people of Karnataka continued to shower their love on the Congress party for years to come until the Janata Party and Janata Dal became a major force to reckon in the late 80s and early 90s.

Bellary had voted for an Italian outsider Sonia Gandhi in her first election

Fast forward to 1999 elections. Sonia Gandhi had stayed away from active politics after her husband Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991. A disastrous performance by the Congress in the 1996 polls led to a huge outcry within the party asking Sonia Gandhi to take up the cudgels. Eventually, Sonia Gandhi became the President of the Congress Party in 1998. In the runup to the 1999 elections, Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins became a major poll issue. So much so that while BJP was vehemently against letting Sonia Gandhi become the Prime Minister of the country in case the Congress would win the polls, even some of her own party men like PA Sangma, Sharad Pawar were opposed to this idea and walked out of the party. For Sonia Gandhi though, Amethi constituency which was held by Rajiv Gandhi earlier, wasn’t a safe seat anymore as BJP had won it in 1998. Sonia Gandhi, being a political rookie at that stage was like a fish out of water when it came to electoral politics and couldn’t afford to test her acceptability by contesting from Amethi. She chose to do as her mother-in-law had done before her. She looked towards Karnataka and picked the safest seat Bellary to contest (in addition to Amethi). This became a prestige issue for the BJP who brought in Sushma Swaraj to contest against her. This was a contest between 2 outsiders (one from Central India and another from Italy). Bellary had supported Congress in all elections starting from 1951 to 1998 and 1999 turned out to be no different. Sonia Gandhi was able to defeat Sushma Swaraj by about 58000 votes. In Congress’ language, Sushma Swaraj’s honourable defeat (BJP was organizationally absent in Bellary until then) was a ‘moral victory’. No sooner had Sonia Gandhi won from both Amethi and Bellary, she did the obvious, just like her mother-in-law. She ditched Bellary in favour of Amethi. Karnataka had been cheated yet again by the parivaar.

Neither are Congress bastions anymore

Today, both Chikkamagalur and Bellary are not considered to be bastions for the Congress any more. Chikkamagalur was merged with a part of Dakshina Kannada constituency during the delimitation exercise and is now called as Udupi-Chikkamagalur. BJP is now strong in both the coastal areas (known as the KaravaLi region) and the Western Ghats region (known as the Malenadu region). Congress has not won this seat since 1996 (lost to Janata Dal in 1996 and has lost to BJP ever since). Congress is a weak imitation of its glorious past in the region.

In case of Bellary too, BJP managed to make inroads into the district. While Sonia Gandhi never looked back towards Bellary, Sushma Swaraj nursed the constituency and helped in building the party in the district. Although Congress won the bypoll to Bellary constituency in 2000 (after Sonia Gandhi vacated the seat), BJP managed to secure a hattrick by winning Bellary in 2004, 2009 and 2014. It was only in 2018 when the sitting BJP MP vacated the seat to fight assembly polls, was the Congress party able to wrest Bellary back into their kitty after 18 long years!

Karnataka has not gained from helping the Nehru Gandhi parivaar

While most high-profile constituencies get to see some development as a perk for voting for a high-profile candidate, the 2 above mentioned constituencies haven’t had that privilege. The arecanut farmers of Chikkamagalur fail to get a minimum support price for their produce. Bellary had a mining boom but after the SC ruling banning all iron ore mining, the district economy is back in the doldrums with no viable industries. This is in stark contrast to how the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi has managed to revive his constituency Varanasi through multiple renovation projects. Varanasi, the world’s oldest city, is much more difficult to renovate and revive compared to Bellary and Chikkamagalur.  Karnataka will have to ask why this model of constituency development was not adopted by both Indira Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. Kannadigas will have to ask why both the Gandhis only used them as vote banks and didn’t do anything in return.

What is making Rahul Gandhi look at Karnataka?

Rahul Gandhi has been winning from Amethi since 2004. Earlier this seat was held by Sonia Gandhi for 5 years. Amethi lags behind in all human development indices and employment opportunities. Rahul Gandhi was challenged by Smriti Irani in 2014 but was able to hold on by winning with a reduced margin of 1 lakh votes (his margin of victory in 2009 was 4 lakh votes!). However, as is the practice of the Gandhi parivaar, Rahul Gandhi continued to distance himself from his obligation of development of Amethi. It was left to Smriti Irani to make incremental steps to develop Amethi as a minister in the central government. Looking at the reception Irani has received in Amethi in the past 5 years and at the success of the various projects started by Irani, analysts have started suggesting that Rahul Gandhi might find it very tough to retain his seat. It is in this backdrop that murmurs were heard that Karnataka might again be looked at as a use-and-throw commodity by Rahul Gandhi.

What is in it for the state Congress leadership?

Congress is a divided house in Karnataka, in the aftermath of a devastating defeat in the 2018 state assembly elections. Too many chieftains attempt to cling on to power by overtaking the others. Congress is now a junior partner in an alliance with JDS ruling the state. Earlier articles on Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar are found here, here and here. Many other sub-regional and caste-based leaders in the Congress have managed to become ministers. Sadly for Siddaramaiah though, he is neither a minister nor is he liked by any other Congress leader. He is now the head of a co-ordination committee between the two alliance partners but has been unable to quell any infighting between the party leadership. In a bid to stay politically relevant and also to be close to the top brass, Siddaramaiah managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat by publicly asking Rahul Gandhi to consider Karnataka to contest from in the upcoming elections. Such a unilateral step by Siddaramaiah forced the state Congress unit to officially endorse and request Rahul Gandhi to come down to contest.

Is it an assured victory for Rahul Gandhi if he contests in Karnataka?

The fact is that there are very few safe seats for the Congress in the state now. Karnataka has consistently voted for BJP since 2004 and given it upwards of 15 seats each time (out of 28). Unlike earlier, there are just 2 seats (Gulbarga & Kolar) remaining where Congress’s grip has never receded, but both are reserved seats. Chikkaballapur (won by Veerappa Moily in 2014) or Bengaluru Rural (won by D K Suresh, brother of D K Shivakumar in 2014) are the other options but the sitting MPs will not volunteer to give up their seats unlike how D B Chandre Gowda gave up in 1978.

A leader chooses a relatively new constituency only if the party is eyeing to make inroads into the greater region. In this case, Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Karnataka should be an attempt to influence the outcome from the greater South India region. While this may sound a good premise, the fact is that while Congress is weak in Karnataka, it is almost non-existent in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh and piggybacks on DMK to win handful of seats from Tamil Nadu. So, there is no organizational strength and love from the people for Rahul Gandhi to milk. In short, Rahul Gandhi’s entry into the south will be a dud attempt.

Contrast this with Modi’s victory in Varanasi in 2014. Although BJP had performed poorly in 2009 elections in the state, the party’s organizational structure was still intact and the public anger against the ruling Congress party was palpable. Modi tapped into these underlying factors to emerge victorious and it in turn helped the party to sweep the entire state by winning 73 out of 80 seats.

Sadly for Congress though, the party neither has a favourable scenario nor a strategy to turn around its fortunes in the state and the region. For the local leadership too, bringing Rahul Gandhi is just the beginning. The leaders will have to pour in all their resources to ensure a victory for Rahul Gandhi and even then it’s a difficult task as stated above. But as and when this materializes, the state leadership will be unable to focus on other seats in the state to challenge the BJP. In summary, for now, Rahul Gandhi will not find Karnataka as appealing as his mother and grandmother found it to be.