It is the election season in 2024, and the media is all about Trump vs Harris. This article is about the gold mine that Trump ignored: The Indian-origin immigrant voters.

For Indians who mostly vote Democrats, they are turning away from the democrats thanks to excessive taxes, wokeness and issues concerning undocumented immigrants. Back in 2016, Trump tried to cosy up to the Indian voter by attending the first of its-kind Republican Hindu Council’s meeting in New Jersey. He paraphrased Prime Minister Modi’s Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar to “Ab Ki Bar Trump Sarkar”. Chicago-based Shalabh Shalli Kumar coined this term and it echoed with many Indians.

Being statistically insignificant, the Indian voter did not contribute much to Trump’s win in 2016. However, at that point in time there were close to 1 million Indians in the queue for Green Cards through the legal immigration process. Surprisingly, a considerable number of those in the queue were angry with the Democrats’ preference for undocumented immigrants and persistently tying them to law-abiding legal immigrants from India whose patience was wearing thin. The Indian immigrants were of course contributing billions to the tax kitty and got nothing in return.

During various stages of the campaign, Trump had mentioned that he would support legal immigration over undocumented. This echoed with the Indian voters a lot. The support base in India for Trump is astounding. Many had called their family members who are US citizens to vote for Trump. While this information is anecdotal, it may not be far from the truth. TV channels in India were turning out to be mouthpieces for Trump.

I have witnessed many campaigns for elections in the US but have not come across anything like this for US elections where the Indian channels keep rooting for a candidate. The main plank of these channels is that both Republicans and India’s BJP are right-wing. I have argued against it in my earlier article emphasising the BJP as left-wing without Hinduphobia, which can be seen across the political spectrum in India¹.

But post-2016 elections, with the business of immigration put on the back burner, the million-plus immigrants from India are still in America without Green Cards. Had Trump paid attention to this segment and issued Green cards through executive order by early 2017, all of them would have taken up citizenship by now and voted. He had all three branches of government supporting him back then on becoming President.

Many in this backlog would have become the most loyal voters for the GOP and Trump. Without him batting an eyelid, Trump would have won the electoral college votes easily. States like Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin which gave wafer-thin margins in President Biden’s win in 2020 would have turned decisively Republican and in favour of Trump. Indian diaspora would have made the difference.

With JD Vance, Trump’s running mate this time being married to an Indian-origin woman Usha Vance, Indian-origin voters are excited to vote for him. Those in the Green Card queue were even more thrilled. Sad that they will not cast their choice in 2024. This may just sink Trump’s chances in November.

Based on my various conversations on social media and elsewhere, even those Indians who do not vote Republican tend to like Trump. While I have never fathomed this change of heart, it is the same Indians who say that they voted for Obama twice and call themselves liberal. Puzzling as it is, the change of opinion is real.

In fact, I had gone along with one of the Democrat supporters to attend a fundraiser in 2017 for Democrat Jon Ossoff for the GA-6 Congressional district by-election. He is now a staunch GOP supporter. It is worth noting that even after a felony conviction in New York, Trump’s support among Indians is intact. Such is the cult following for him among Indians. States such as California, New York and Illinois which traditionally vote Democrats will not change course. But for sure swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona would be effective.

If Trump does not win in 2024 one of the causes for sure would be ignoring the potential Indian voter. That would have been the biggest prize he left on the table. I have come across articles saying that his advisor Stephen Miller was the reason behind his inaction on immigration. So, it is not always the wrong actions that cause defeat. Inactions such as these on the immigration front might cost Trump 2024 and he might just rue it.

Happy Voting America.

Reference

1. https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/is-pm-modi-a-right-winger