The evening of 8th Nov was unlike any other evening for every Indian. Rich or poor, weak or powerful, within India or outside India; PM Modi’s announcement that 1000 and 500 rupee bills shall no longer be considered legal tenders rattled every one. The announcements had various effects on everyone. While I was thinking about what to do with my 20,000 that I had withdrawn from the bank just an hour back for running the house, there was my maid thinking, ‘does this mean that the money I have has become useless?’, and then there were people thinking what to do with the money that they are hoarded, which had essentially become worthless.
It took me barely a few minutes to recover from that sudden jolt and that’s when I realized all the changes that my country is going to witness in the coming days and years. I am not an economist hence I can't use heavy financial terms to explain my views, hence I’ll try to put my thoughts across in the language and words that come to me easily.
We keep hearing how India is a vibrant economy and the fastest growing one in the world but we also ask ourselves, ‘why don't I feel it in my everyday life?’ I always had the grudge that despite being honest with my taxes, the returns don't seem to come to me. Now I started jotting down things which I see happening immediately with that one announcement of Demonetisation.
1- The very first thing that crossed my mind was, how the entire fake currency racket got demolished in one stroke. Our country has been literally bleeding because of the fake currency being pumped in by our neighbor. This was not just economic terrorism but was also used to fund various terror groups. I am sure everyone has been reading how naxals had stashed 1000₹ bills in the forest, amounting to some 7500Cr. There were also reports of the Kashmir valley having suddenly gone calmer. The Azaadi chants have disappeared and so have all the stone throwers.
2- The biggest menace has always been black money and suddenly all the money stashed under mattresses and basement trunks had no value. While many would argue that black money hoarders invested their money in properties etc., I would still say, a significant portion used to be kept as hard cash and that would be used to fund their lavish lifestyle. Suddenly night clubs went silent, casinos saw no footfall and so did luxury hotels and restaurants. I had asked a high official in a luxury hotel about why the footfall had decreased when payment can be done by card, and he in return asked me "do you think these people pay through card" and explained it to me.
3- "What about politicians"... this was obviously next in the curiosity list. In our country the entire political system runs on black money and with one announcement the entire structure completely collapsed. These politicians have virtually no money left to pay their minions to even run a protest against this decision of Central Govt. After all they can't do online transfer to the trouble makers. I surely won't say that this will suddenly stop troubles but this is surely a jolt big enough to slow it down considerably.
4- What about property prices? Being a resident of Mumbai, I know how difficult it is to have your own home. When property prices are extra-ordinarily high but also paying 30-40% of the amount in cash which is nothing but black money. That makes the dream of owning your own home very difficult. After the demonetisation, my hope is that now flats will be purchased for the registered amount only.
5- The hawala network collapsed overnight. As per some economists, the hawala transactions amounted to as much as one third of our economy. Drying up of hawala funds means drying up of terror funding too.
6- The present government had advocated for a cashless economy and Jan Dhan Yojana was a part of that scheme. Cashless economy reduces the margin of black money and corruption. Today people are compelled to open JDY accounts and deposit the cash lying with them. For an economy to flourish it is very important that the money keeps flowing through proper route and channel. There can't be an output without any input. More than 3 Lakh Cr cash has already been deposited in the banks. I have come across a lot of small vendors who have started effectively using PayTM and mobile wallet facilities. More and more shops are opting for card swiping machines and high value transactions shall happen through cheque. In a nut shell, every penny gets accounted for.
7- I then started thinking if this demonetisation is going to bring any good news to me regarding the taxes that I have been paying. Will taxes come down? Well, my limited knowledge says yes, taxes will come down, may be not immediately but after one budget session probably. Demonetisation will improve the credit rating which will help in reducing the interest against loans taken by India. Once this interest rate comes down, commodity prices and import duty on goods will also come down. Once GST is properly implemented, it will increase revenue for government, which will help against tax reduction.
8- What about jewelers? Often I have seen jewelers giving discount to the customer if they didn't ask for a pakka receipt or a genuine receipt. This is one major hub of black money. Now every jeweler has to declare his gold stock every day and anyone whose stock doesn't match with the old record falls under investigation. And not only the jeweler but also customers who have bought gold without furnishing their PAN shall be investigated. So, no more stashing black money in gold bars.
Next day morning I reach my bank and see this long serpentine queue of people, most of them confused but one thing they were quite sure of, that it's for their good. Yes it was hard for many people to stand for long hours but while standing there they were also learning about the banking process and benefits of JDY. Volunteers and bank staff that I came across were eagerly helping each person and answering every query. The four days that I spent in different banks and branches filled me with great hope to see the positivity running through every person standing there.
Once I analyzed demonetisation through every aspect, I knew my country is taking a very big leap towards change and a big leap often means shaking up the entire system and country. Yes there will be a setback to financial activities especially for the small grocery store at the corner of the street or the tiny vegetable vendor, as people might prefer buying necessary items using their cards in departmental stores. But it will also encourage him to move from cash based to cash less economy. Today the high cash flow has resulted into high prices (demand and supply chain). Once this gets curtailed, prices shall automatically come down, making commodities much more affordable to the lower income group.
There shall be hiccups and usual teething problems too but then I remember what my father said "Desh ek din me Azaad nahi hua tha, aur is Azaadi ne qurbani bhi maangi thi"
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