Two weeks before, the Delhi election was almost one-sided, and the incumbent CM Arvind Kejriwal's AAP had the pole position. Many pollsters, including BJP supporters, were sure of a landslide in favor of AAP.

Delhi is unique, and the election here is more of a 'municipal' election than a 'national' election and is fought pre-dominantly on local issues. It's one state that has even changed the government on the onion price of the previous month. In Delhi, a significant number of people vote for free Wi-Fi, free water, half-price electricity, regularization of slums, etc. These are people with focused interests and conflicted ethics. They stay awake all night participating in the Bhagwati-Jagrans with amplifiers on, so no one can sleep that night in their neighborhood. These are people who exist for themselves.

Another significant voter lot in Delhi is the substantial number of central government staffers. We all have witnessed thousands of them in parks and traffic islands in the capital playing cards, enjoying the post-lunch winter sun. This perk has been severely curtailed since Mr. Modi came to power. They live in government quarters in parts of Delhi, where Mukesh Ambani would think twice before paying the price for the plot. It is their right as an underclass, to seek satisfaction in harassing anyone who comes to them for anything, and they actively take bribes.

Despite assuring Purn-Swaraj, Arvind Kejriwal perfectly fits the bill.

BJP's Delhi unit is also no different. Easily, one of their worst state units. Since the Jan-Sangh days, it has always been a force in Delhi and has had a traditional presence. But it never came back to power since it lost the 'onion election' of 1998. Sometimes, it feels that at various points of time, the Sangh leadership itself ensured no popular face emerges in Delhi. If the Sangh fully supports BJP on the ground, it would be challenging to defeat BJP in Delhi. But it was never felt except during the two general elections of 2014 and 2019.

However, this time, the Delhi Assembly polls have assumed an absolute criticality because of the current discourse on Anti-CAA politics. The protest conducted at Shaheen-Bagh has caused a headache to the people of Delhi. It has resulted in the blockade of prominent roads that join South Delhi and Noida. The local residents of the area are becoming increasingly impatient over the troubles caused due to the protest.

First, the course of these protests shifted to riots across the country, to blocking roads to disturb the life of others like any leftist protest. But lately, in a dramatic turn of events, the CAA-Protests are being linked to the Friday Prayers. It suggests that the protest is forming a bond with religious identity. In a video, the JNU students were heard saying that 'we should not trust the Government of India and the Supreme Court - that carried out the hanging of 'innocent Afzal Guru.' Then, Sharjeel Imam was seen giving an inflammatory speech colliding with the time of Jamia violence. As a result, now it is clearly recognized as a platform to raise voice against Hindus, including distrust in the constitutional bodies of India.

The BJP leverage this emerging political situation. It looks like this firm-stand against the protests, and the blockade of Shaheen-Bagh would open the road to the BJP's electoral fortune in the Capital.

In 2013, AAP devised a strategy, never seen before campaign model - "Kejriwal for Delhi and Modi for Lok Sabha" to swing the neutral voters. Before 2015, BJP had scored two self goals - first, by not announcing the election immediately after the 2014 election, and then by announcing Kiran Bedi as a CM face from nowhere. Delhi voters, in general, do not want to be questioned by a competent Authority. That is the probably the only reason, BJP has not announced any CM face despite, still a popular CM face, Arvind Kejriwal. BJP may triumph Delhi election... that's another matter. But if it doesn't, one big reason would be not having a CM candidate.

In 2015, there were several thousands of volunteers in Delhi working for AAP. Today, that number has reduced to one-tenth. Arvind Kejriwal understands this changing phenomenon and is trying to compensate it with ultra-socialist schemes. Compared to the last election, AAP is nowhere to be seen on social media.

On the other hand, in the last few days, there is an aggressive, never seen before the campaign launched by BJP on the ground. Amit Shah has made this election appear as a direct fight between him and Kejriwal and is able to successfully change the game in his favor. Both the party cadre and the Sangh machinery have put the same effort as was during the Lok Sabha elections.

Here are some numbers. 

BJP has always got more than 32% votes in all the elections - Municipal, Assembly or Lok Sabha. It can be easily assumed that they have a traditional cadre vote of 30%.

AAP's vote share at its peak in the 2015 Assembly election was 54% that fell down to 26% in the 2017 MCD election and 18% in the 2019 LS election. However, it will gain again over that in the assembly election, particularly because the third contestant Congress is practically absent.

BJP's vote share was about 57% in the 2019 LS elections, gaining roughly 27% -30% of floating voters. All that BJP needs is to retain one-third of these floating voters. If the recent surveys based on Delhi are to be believed, in which more than 65% people fully support CAA-NPR and more than 70 % are against the Shaheen Bagh protest, it reflects that on the ground level, BJP will be able to hold at least half of these floating voters, if not all.

If Congress manages to pose a fight and holds more than 50% of its 2019 LS vote share, BJP can easily witness a landslide in its favor. But the Congress Party is absent from the ground once again. Either there is a strategic understanding with AAP, or the cadre itself has shifted permanently. How enigmatic for a party that ruled Delhi for 15 years on a trot. But this should help AAP consolidate anti-BJP votes.

As it is poised now, it's a neck-to-neck fight. Whoever manages the campaign better in the last couple of days and are also able to ensure their voters turn out and vote, should cross the line.

Looking at the shift of the mood and the narrative at the very fag end of the campaign, it seems, the ruthless BJP, led by none other than Amit Shah, is firmly scripting a BJP victory, and the Congress will be reduced to only sloganeering in the national Capital.