Bengal has always remained the fulcrum of Indian national politics. Right from the days when Calcutta was the capital of undivided India to Indira Gandhi's emergency era, Bengal has always played pivotal role in the national political domain.  From Prafulla Chandra Ghosh to Mamata Banerjee, Bengal has witnessed many ups and downs and welcomed paradigm shifts in its takht. From Congress governments, United Front governments and President's Rule after the Siddhartha Shankar Ray era, Bengal embraced the Communist era and it took 34 long years to dethrone them.  It was much expected that this 'change' would transform the face of Bengal from being a dead state to a vibrant state, the reality has been much different.  A state with maximum crime against women, increasing unemployment, gross violation of human rights, total lawlessness- Bengalis are witnessing constitutional tyranny and in all probability, Bengal is looking forward to another change.  Whether it would elevate or propel the rising BJP or the tried and tested Left Front or the Congress, which is considered to be a mere signboard in Bengal, is a vital question. The current political situation of Bengal is alarming indeed.

The present political scenario of Bengal is far from being a closely contested one. In the last Lok Sabha election, when the whole country experienced a Modi wave, Bengal wasn't any exception either.  Although BJP managed to win only 2 seats, Darjeeling and Asansol, yet the percentage increase in the number of votes had been overwhelming. The diametrically opposite situation was that of the Left front.  The Congress managed to claw back its forts in the North Bengal whereas reigning TMC romped with resounding victory with 34 seats. The results of the four political parties weren't unexpected but political analysts were apprehensive of the fact that the rise of the saffron power in the bordering districts of Bengal indicated a changed in the paradigm shift. Certainly BJP's chances of attaining the chief opposition party of Bengal got a serious boost with 16.8% vote share.  Even during the election campaign, Narendra Modi himself spearheaded the campaign and came to Bengal several times. He was ably supported by the RSS core group and Amit Shah. TMC supremo and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee also stepped up her ante against Modi and indeed the rivalry between TMC and BJP received a new dimension. The chit fund scam especially with Saradha, Rosevalley and other groups' added fuel to the campaign and Prime Ministerial candidate promised justice to the victims of the chit fund scam if selected.

Although BJP won the Lok Sabha elections handsomely, yet they aren't a dominant force in the Rajya Sabha.  For passing important bills like GST and others, Modi Government is looking out for probable support from parties like AIADMK, TMC and others. In this regard, one can point that in various instances TMC Government is helping or bailing out the NDA alliance in Rajya Sabha.  This whole situation is working not in favour of the BJP as certain of the mass believes that BJP has lost the credibility of their anti-TMC stance. Side by side the leftist parties spearheaded by CPIM are fighting for a comeback. In the Siliguri Municipality elections, there was a grand alliance which managed to defeat TMC and clinch Siliguri in spite of all stiff opposition from TMC.  Whether the Siliguri model can be applied elsewhere in Bengal remains a question though as Congress and CPIM are wary of their own 'secular' tags as far as making an alliance with BJP is concerned.

The political turmoil of West Bengal is quite evident at present as political clashes have become too common.  Be it rural Panchayat or schools, colleges or universities, the growing discontent over reigning Trinamul Congress is quite evident. The chit fund scam, the TET scam has aggravated antipathy for TMC.  The case of Muslim appeasement from ruling state government to garner votes has been another dangerous trend. Although BJP has called for serious review of the illegal immigrants from Bangladesh to West Bengal, referring it to the last religious census, the situation can't be simplified to that level.  The backward districts like East and West Dinajpur, Murshidabad, Malda are facing the tantrums and in reality these districts are lagging behind in most of the social indicators. As far as lawlessness and anarchy in Bengal are concerned, West Bengal has reached its nadir and veteran politicians are comparing the present scenario to the Naxalite era.  The police force has become a slave of the TMC Government and as far as employability is concerned, the state has failed to encourage investors in West Bengal. The state government employees are in great anger as the TMC Government is not agreeing to minimize the huge gap in Dearness Allowance with regard to the Central Government employees.  Certainly weaker opposition in the form of BJP, CPIM and Congress isn't helping the cause either.  Let's not forget the growth of  Gorkhaland Mukti Morcha, who are playing cheap divisive politics with vested interests to coax away vast areas of North Bengal. Alarmingly, the western part of the state is also witnessing rebirth of the Maoists, who went on to a sleeping mode after the killing of Maoist kingpin Kishenji.  The Khagragarh blast case once again pinpointed the vulnerability with which West Bengal exists in the present political dilemma.

Just like Delhi, where the civil society movement led by none other than Anna Hazare triggered huge opposition to the reigning Sheila Dikshit Congress Government, possibilities of such in West Bengal are not minimal. Last year Kolkata witnessed huge mass rally in favour of the students of the Jadavpur University amidst huge opposition from the ruling party.  Marginal increase in the 'no' votes category is thus of great significance where common people are looking for better alternative. The Left Front coalition, which rules the Bengal bastion for more than three decades failed to live up to the expectations and ended up in unceremonious defeat in the last Assembly Elections. At present they have failed in putting forward new faces in the state front. Whether the CPIM should make an alliance with Congress or opine for Third Front in the national politics, is another perspective which is hurting the prospects for any possible comeback of the leftists in West Bengal. As far as Congress is concerned, they have become a zonal party with North Bengal districts, riding on the legacy of Barkat Ghani Khan Choudhury. As far as BJP is concerned, even they have failed to come forward with new prominent faces. Thus in all probability TMC is going to stay in Government as far as Assembly Elections in 2016 is concerned.

Ranabir Bhattacharyya