According to the recently published 2023 yearbook by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has persistently augmented its nuclear arsenal in the previous year as part of its efforts to modernize its military capabilities. The report indicates that China's nuclear warhead count rose from 350 in January 2022 to an estimated 410 in January 2023, with projections suggesting further expansion in the future.

The SIPRI yearbook highlights China's ongoing commitment to bolstering its nuclear power, a development that coincides with the escalation of global geopolitical tensions. As countries continue to engage in strategic military advancements, China's efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal serve as a testament to its growing influence in the global arena.

“Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the USA or Russia by the turn of the decade,” the report said.

Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said that China has started “a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal.”

“It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with China’s declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security,” he added.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, besides China, the eight other recognized nuclear states, namely the US, Russia, the UK, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, also pursued modernization efforts of their nuclear arsenals in the past year.

SIPRI further noted that approximately 3,844 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, with nearly all of them belonging to Russia or the US.

The report highlighted the dominance of Russia and the US, collectively possessing almost 90% of the global nuclear weapons. While the sizes of their usable warheads appeared relatively stable in 2022, transparency surrounding nuclear forces decreased in both countries following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In the case of India and Pakistan, SIPRI observed that both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems in 2022. While Pakistan remained the main focus of India's nuclear deterrent, the report noted that India was placing a growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of targeting locations across China.

Image source: Statecraft