China's grey zone warfare against Taiwan is a money-guzzler, cost Beijing $15.3 bn in 2023
- In Reports
- 09:22 PM, Aug 27, 2024
- Myind Staff
According to a previously unpublished Taiwanese estimate, China allocated approximately $15 billion, or 7% of its defense budget, to military exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023. This figure highlights Beijing's significant investment in military activities surrounding Taiwan and its neighbouring regions. The internal research by Taiwan's armed forces, which was reviewed by Reuters, provides a rare glimpse into a portion of China's defence spending as Beijing has intensified its military presence amid escalating regional tensions.
China asserts Taiwan as its own territory and has not renounced the use of force to assert control over the democratically governed island, despite strong objections from Taiwan. Additionally, China is involved in sovereignty disputes with several countries over large areas of the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
"This reveals the logic behind their resource allocation," commented a senior Taiwan official familiar with the research. "They are investing a substantial amount of resources to gain control over the west of the First Island Chain." This official, along with two other sources who were briefed on the research, requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information.
The First Island Chain is a series of archipelagos extending from Indonesia in the southwest to Japan in the northeast, including the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
In response to Reuters, Taiwan's defence ministry declined to comment on the specific figures. However, they stated, "The Chinese Communist Party's substantial military investment in recent years has indeed negatively affected peace and stability in the region, which is detrimental to global prosperity and development."
China's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment. In April, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and China's second-highest-ranking military official, remarked that the sea should not be a place where countries display their "gunboat muscles." He further stated that "maritime containment, encirclement, and island blockades will only thrust the world into a vortex of division and turbulence," seemingly addressing actions by the U.S. and its allies.
Taiwan's defence ministry compiled reports in May based on surveillance and intelligence regarding Chinese military activities in the Bohai Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the western Pacific Ocean. The reports assessed China's naval and air missions in 2023 and estimated the costs of fuel and other consumables for each hour of operation. The total expenditure amounted to 110 billion yuan ($15.3 billion), which included maintenance, repairs, and salaries, according to the reports and officials briefed on the research.
This research aimed to assist Taiwanese decision-makers in understanding how China allocates its military resources across different regions and to evaluate what Taipei perceives as a "gap" between Beijing's intentions and its actual capabilities, as explained by three officials familiar with the reports.
By comparing the cost of these military exercises to the state of China's economy, Taiwan aims to assess potential risks for both itself and China. The 110 billion yuan figure represents approximately 85% of Taiwan's 2023 defence budget, according to Reuters calculations.
This amount is about 7% of China's reported 2023 military spending of 1.55 trillion yuan. However, diplomats and experts note that this figure is often opaque and may not fully encompass all relevant expenditures. In March, China announced a 7.2% increase in defence spending for the year, bringing the total to 1.67 trillion yuan.
"It's like a black hole," said retired Taiwanese Navy Lieutenant Commander Lu Li-shih, highlighting that China's defence budget does not itemise individual spending programs. "You can gauge the trend, but you can't discern the detailed items."
Image source: Mint
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