China has released its long-awaited methane reduction plan, marking significant progress in its pursuit of a new climate agreement with the United States. The commitment to reduce methane emissions was initially made by Beijing at the COP26 summit in Glasgow in 2021, as part of a joint accord with the US.

However, the plan for methane reduction had been pending for two years. Its publication now, coinciding with the conclusion of a four-day discussion between the US and Chinese climate envoys in Sunnylands, California, indicates that the two nations are approaching the possibility of forging a fresh climate agreement.

This prediction aligns with an upcoming meeting between their respective heads of state next week and the UN's COP28 climate conference scheduled for the end of the month. These developments signal the potential for significant advancements in climate cooperation between the US and China.

The choice of venue for the recent meeting between Xie Zhenhua and John Kerry has drawn particular attention for its symbolism. The opulent estate served as the location for China's President Xi Jinping's initial presidential encounter with former US President Barack Obama in 2013. This historical context adds significance to the site, underlining its role in fostering diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Xi and Biden scheduled to to meet on November 15 at the APEC summit in San Francisco are building on Xie-Kerry talks for a potential climate deal. The historic 2014 US-China climate pact emerged from the Xi-Obama meeting, influencing the Paris Agreement with a global temperature limit of under 2°C.

Insiders are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of a new US-China climate agreement, considering it a "golden opportunity," according to Li Shuo, the incoming director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Policy Institute. He noted that upcoming elections in the US and Taiwan may potentially divert both nations' attention from climate discussions in 2024.

Both the United States and China are inclined to demonstrate the presence of "guardrails" in their relationship, with climate cooperation being one of the highlights, as emphasized by Byford Tsang, a senior policy adviser at E3G, a climate change think tank.

During COP26 in Glasgow, China and the US agreed to establish a working group focused on climate action. Negotiations faced setbacks after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, but recent US-China meetings have rekindled the dialogue. A significant turning point occurred when John Kerry visited Beijing in July, characterizing the meetings as "extremely warm and productive." These developments suggest a renewed momentum in US-China climate discussions.

Negotiating an agreement poses challenges, especially in establishing specific commitments. For instance, China's methane reduction plan lacks numerical targets due to its cautious approach to international pledges.

The issue of curbing fossil fuel emissions, notably coal phaseout, is becoming increasingly contentious. China's significant greenhouse gas production is mainly from the energy sector, with over 60% of power generation reliant on coal. Although phasing out coal is integral to China's 2060 net-zero goal, it has been complicated by energy security concerns and sensitivity due to past power cuts and blackouts. This has made discussions on the topic difficult.

Experts recommend grid improvements and market reforms to address China's energy security instead of more coal use. Surprisingly, local approvals for new coal power remain high, despite calls for transitioning to renewables. While Kerry and Xie disagree on coal, analysts remain hopeful for an agreement on climate goals, as presidential meeting approaches.

Image source: The Guardian