China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) across three newly developed missile silo fields, according to a draft report prepared by the United States Department of Defence. The report highlights China’s rapidly expanding military capabilities and says Beijing shows little interest in joining arms control talks.

The draft Pentagon report, which was seen by Reuters and could still be revised before being submitted to U.S. lawmakers, states that China has been steadily strengthening and modernising its nuclear forces. It adds that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other nuclear-armed country.

According to the report, more than 100 solid-fuel DF-31 ICBMs have likely been placed in silo fields located near China’s border with Mongolia. While the Pentagon had earlier confirmed the existence of these silo fields, this is the first time a specific number of missiles loaded into them has been mentioned.

China has strongly rejected claims about a military build-up. Beijing has described such reports as attempts to “smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community.” China’s embassy in Washington D.C. said the country has “maintained a defensive nuclear strategy, kept its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and abided by its commitment to a moratorium on nuclear testing.”

The Pentagon declined to comment on the contents of the draft report.

The report also said that China has no apparent desire to engage in arms control discussions with the United States or other nuclear powers. “We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report said.

Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he might be working on a plan to pursue denuclearisation talks with China and Russia. However, the Pentagon’s assessment suggests that China does not appear interested in such efforts at present.

Despite the reported missile deployments, the Pentagon noted that China’s total nuclear warhead stockpile remained in the low 600s in 2024. This figure reflects what the report described as a “slower rate of production when compared to previous years.” Still, it warned that China’s nuclear expansion is continuing and that Beijing is on track to possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

China has repeatedly said that it follows a policy of self-defence and adheres to a “no-first-use” nuclear doctrine, meaning it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.

The draft report did not specify any potential targets for the newly loaded missiles. U.S. officials noted that the findings and language of the report could still change before its final release.

Beyond nuclear forces, the Pentagon report provided a broader picture of China’s military ambitions. It said that China aims to be capable of fighting and winning a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027. China considers democratically governed Taiwan to be its own territory and has never ruled out the use of force to achieve “reunification.”

The report stated that Beijing is refining its military options to take Taiwan by “brute force.” One possible option mentioned includes long-range strikes extending 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles from China. “In sufficient volume, these strikes could seriously challenge and disrupt U.S. presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region,” the report said.

The timing of the report is significant, as it comes less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty. This agreement is the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the United States and Russia and limits both sides to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems. The treaty was extended for five years in February 2021 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-U.S. President Joe Biden, but it cannot be formally extended again under its current terms.

Many experts have warned that the end of New START could increase the risk of a three-way nuclear arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China. “More nuclear weapons and an absence of diplomacy will not make anyone safer, neither China, Russia, nor the United States,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

The Pentagon report also discussed internal developments within China’s military. It noted that President Xi Jinping has carried out a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) being a major focus. The report said these purges could affect nuclear readiness in the short term but may lead to “long-term PLA improvements overall.”

According to the report, revenues at major state-owned Chinese military firms fell last year as corruption investigations slowed arms contracts and procurement. In the past 18 months, at least 26 current and former senior managers in state-owned arms companies have been investigated or removed. The investigations have expanded beyond rockets and missiles to include much of China’s defence industry, including its nuclear and shipbuilding sectors.

Overall, the report paints a picture of a rapidly modernising Chinese military, expanding nuclear capabilities, and growing strategic rivalry with the United States, amid rising tensions over Taiwan and regional security in the Asia-Pacific.