China could occupy Taiwan without firing a shot with 'quarantine' strategy, warns think tank report
- In Reports
- 09:43 PM, Jun 22, 2024
- Myind Staff
China could occupy Taiwan without firing a single shot by using its 'quarantine' strategy, according to a report from a top think tank. Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province and is committed to its reunification with mainland China, not ruling out the use of force. In recent years, Beijing's military provocations around Taiwan have intensified, with exercises simulating an invasion and takeover becoming increasingly aggressive.
This morning, Taiwan's Defence Ministry reported spotting 41 Chinese aircraft and seven naval vessels around Taiwan, with 32 of the aircraft entering the island's air defence identification zone (ADIZ).
Amid these tensions, the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published a report suggesting that China might use a quarantine strategy to take Taiwan without an invasion. According to the CSIS, the report is based on in-depth research, tabletop exercises, private consultations, and expert surveys.
The quarantine strategy involves deploying a blockade-like net around Taiwan to force it to surrender to Beijing's terms. Unlike a traditional military blockade, this strategy would incorporate law enforcement elements from Beijing's security apparatus.
According to the CSIS, the quarantine strategy would entail controlling maritime and air traffic around Taiwan. Rather than completely sealing off the island, the goal would be to assert Beijing's control by setting the terms for traffic in and out of Taiwan. This would mean that China would dictate how, when, and under what conditions countries and companies could access Taiwan, as well as how Taiwan could access the outside world.
The implementation of the quarantine strategy could involve the China Coast Guard, Chinese maritime militia, as well as various police and maritime safety agencies. This approach would position the operation as a law-enforcement effort at sea. In the event that the US Navy or other allies intervene in support of Taiwan, Beijing could portray them as aggressors, shifting responsibility for any escalation onto them.
The primary objective of this quarantine strategy would be to control Taiwan's interactions with the international community and to influence how other countries engage with Taiwan and China. The threat of Chinese authorities seizing ships could effectively discourage maritime trade with Taiwan, potentially damaging its economy significantly.
If the quarantine strategy focuses specifically on the port of Kaohsiung, it could impact up to 57% of Taiwan's trade. This level of economic pressure, combined with potential requirements such as customs inspections by Chinese officials before ships are allowed to enter Taiwan, could compel both Taiwan and the international community to yield to China's demands. The report suggests that such measures could effectively coerce Taiwan and influence global responses, highlighting the strategic leverage China could exert through this approach.
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