This analytical report examines Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-occupied China’s dominance over critical minerals — lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements (REEs). Report examines how this dominance shapes global electric vehicle (EV) markets, creating strategic challenges for the free world, specifically the United States and India.

While examining the EV dynamics of US, the report analyses Leftist Biden-Harris Autopen Administration’s promotion measures for “other-than-Tesla” EVs, EV tax credit and Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and other actions against EVs.

This report examines Indian developments around EVs. Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, infamous for a “secret” MoU with the CCP, has repeatedly and openly promoted EVs. The report takes note of India’s EV producers (Tata, Mahindra, and others) and India’s efforts to counter CCP-occupied China’s mineral dominance.

CCP-Occupied China’s Control Over Critical Minerals

CCP-occupied China dominates EV supply chains:

Lithium: Mines 17% of global lithium, refines ~65-70%. Australia (43%) and Chile (25%) lead mining, but CCP firms like Ganfeng Lithium control refining.

Cobalt: Congo produces ~70% of cobalt, with Chinese Communist Party firms (e.g. CMOC) controlling ~60%. CCP-occupied China refines ~80% of battery-grade cobalt.

EVs require ~200 kg of critical minerals against ~35 kg required for ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles, amplifying vulnerabilities.

REEs: Mines ~60-69% of REEs, processes ~90-92%, including 99.9% of heavy REEs (e.g., dysprosium) in 2024 due to a Vietnamese facility outage.

As part of its unfair trade practices and trade war, CCP-occupied China has imposed export restrictions (e.g. April 2025 ban on seven heavy REEs and magnets).

Impact on Global EV Markets

Despite EVs being heavier by 30 % by weight, impacting fuel efficiency and road infrastructure, thanks to climate propaganda, Global EV sales hit 17 million in 2024 (CCP-occupied China: 11.3 million, Europe: 3.2 million, U.S.: 1.5 million).

CCP-occupied China’s dominance creates risks:

Supply Disruptions: REE magnet bans imposed by CCP-occupied China threaten EV motor production (~520g REEs per vehicle) in other countries, thereby thwarting diversification and competition.

Cost Pressures: Indian firms like Tata face delays due to end-user certificate requirements and other intentional delays by CCP-occupied China firms, risking halts by June 2025.

Geopolitical Leverage: CCP-occupied China’s 65% lithium and 80% cobalt refining share creates bottlenecks. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 500% demand rise by 2050.

Global EV markets are facing uncertainties due to technical, servicing-related and geopolitical factors.

The US and India, the Big Two, are in retaliation mode in response to unfair trade practices and the trade war of CCP-occupied China.

U.S. Retaliation, Political Dynamics and Elon Musk’s Tesla - the American EV producer

To comprehend the domestic, at times CCP-backed, political dynamics around EVs in a big democracy like US; the background of EV policies and politics across last few years may be viewed first.

The U.S. federal EV tax credit, worth up to $7,500, incentivises new electric vehicle purchases or leases to reduce emissions and support domestic manufacturing. Introduced in 2008 under President Barack Hussein Obama, it was expanded via the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) under President Joe Biden.

This tax credit applies to SUVs/trucks under $80,000 and sedans under $55,000, assembled in North America, with battery materials meeting sourcing rules (e.g. excluding CCP-occupied China). Eligible Buyers must earn ≤$150,000 (individuals) or ≤$300,000 (couples). The incentives also cover $4,000 credit for used EVs (≤$25,000) and a 30% credit (up to $7,500) for commercial EVs.

In 2024, ~3.4 million households claimed over $8 billion in these credits, reducing prices for models like the Tesla Model Y ($7,500 cheaper) and Ford F-150 Lightning (from $62,995 to $55,495).

This incentive supposedly boosts EV adoption, supports U.S. EV automakers. Critics say this favours high-income buyers and firms like Tesla ($2.7 billion in carbon credits).

Elon Musk opposed EV subsidies in 2021, claiming Tesla succeeded without them, though Tesla benefited a lot from them. After Biden’s 2021 EV summit excluded Tesla, Musk aligned with nationalists led by Trump in 2024, criticising leftist Democrats.

Elon Musk’s Republican alignment and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role polarised Democrats. The Electric Vehicle Intelligence Report poll 2025 showed Democrat support for EV mandates fell to 78% from 85% in 2023, citing Musk’s Trump ties and Tesla’s $2.7 billion carbon credits as elitist.

In 2025, Musk favoured the continuation of incentives as Tesla’s sales dipped (1.8 million vehicles, down 1% from 2023). Elon Musk also claims credit repeal would hurt GM and Ford more, but Tesla, too, could lose 100,000 U.S. sales annually. Some environmental activists see Musk as a climate ally but distrust his ties with  CCP-occupied China (Shanghai Gigafactory).

Tesla’s Supply Chain: Tesla likely relies on CCP-occupied China’s minerals.

Lithium: Sourced from Australia and the U.S., but CCP’s ~65% refining share implies indirect, if not direct, dependence.

Cobalt: Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery (LFP) LFP batteries (Model 3/Y) avoid cobalt; NMC batteries use CCP-occupied China refined cobalt (~80% of supply).

REEs: Model Y motors use ~520g of REEs. CCP-occupied China’s 90% processing dominance suggests reliance, somehow via CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited), a CCP-occupied China company in Shanghai.

Reportedly, Tesla mitigates this dependence on CCP-occupied China companies by using LFP batteries, REE-free motors (announced 2023, impacting CCP-occupied China companies’ stocks by 5.9-10%), and North American sourcing.

Democrats’ Perspective: Democrats view EVs as vital for climate goals (Biden’s 50% EV sales target by 2030). Democrats frame EV credits as job creators. But their excluding of Musk from policy discussions alienated Tesla.

Trump’s Actions Against EVs

Trump’s anti-EV stance, based on climate scepticism and self-reliance, includes serial actions:

Trump Campaign (2024): Pledged to “cancel the EV mandate” (officially tactfully projected as emission targets by the Biden Administration) and repeal the $7,500 credit, claiming EVs would kill 40% of auto jobs. Promised increased oil production (“drill, baby, drill”).

Transition Planning (November 2024): Trump’s team proposed for repeal of the EV tax credit to compensate for proposed tax cuts, offsetting $921 billion.

Executive Orders (January 2025): Unleashing American Energy, the Presidential orders halted funding worth $7.5 billion in EV charging infrastructure (NEVI/CFI programs). The orders rescinded Biden’s 50% EV sales goal by 2030 and signalled relaxing EPA tailpipe emissions rules.

Legislative Support (Feb-May 2025): Backed Sen. John Barrasso’s S. 541 (Eliminating Lavish Incentives to Electric Vehicles Act), repealing the $7,500 credit, $4,000 used EV credit, and charging incentives, effective 30 days post-passage. Supported Sen. Deb Fischer’s bill for a $1,000 one-time EV purchase fee, citing road damage from EV weight, as previously stated, EVs are far more heavier compared to equivalent petrol vehicles.

Big Beautiful Bill (May 2025): Trump secured near-unanimous Republican support for the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (1,116-page Republican tax and budget proposal) passed by the House, curtailing EV incentives. The bill eliminates the $7,500 new EV tax credit, the $4,000 used EV tax credit, and charging station credits effective December 31, 2025 (originally expiring in 2032).

The bill imposes new fees - a $250 annual EV owner fee and $100 for hybrids to offset gas tax losses, managed by the Federal Highway Administration. The bill extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), offering a $10,000 deduction for interest on U.S.-assembled vehicle loans (≤$100,000 income) but excludes EVs from this. The Senate is reviewing the bill. The bill aims to reduce reliance on CCP-occupied China’s minerals and rare earths.

California Emissions Waiver (May 2025): Supported Senate Republicans blocking California’s 2035 fossil fuel car phase-out, affecting 12 states and 30% of the U.S. market.

Tariffs (April, May, June 2025): Imposed 25% import tariffs on cars, parts, and semiconductors.

Distancing from Musk: In June 2025, Trump criticised Musk, accusing him of flip-flopping on EV credits: “Elon knew the bill’s inner workings… now he has a problem.”

President Trump unplugged California’s EV mandates by signing three Congressional Review Act resolutions into law in second week of June 2025.

These serial actions are likely to cut U.S. EV sales by 40% by 2030 and aim to protect 1.5 million auto jobs and reduce mineral reliance on CCP-occupied China. Trump’s actions protect immediate U.S. interests. Diversifying supply chains is a more strategic long-term objective that which Trump Administration is yet to spell out.

India’s Retaliation, Domestic EV Players and Political Dynamics

India is also a big democracy and deals with adversarial half front within similarly to the US.

India’s 100% import dependence for lithium and cobalt (82% lithium, 60% graphite from CCP-occupied China) and REE magnet bans pose risks for which it has promulgated mitigation plans.

National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM): Launched in 2025 with Rs. 34,300 crore; it targets exploration (e.g. 5.9 million tonnes of lithium in Jammu & Kashmir), recycling, and acquisitions via KABIL (Khanij Bidesh India Ltd, a joint venture company promoted by reputed Indian mining companies) of lithium blocks in Argentina and Australia as well as copper blocks in Zambia.

Allied Partnerships: Joined the U.S.-led Mineral Security Partnership (2023), exploring REEs from Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Australia’s Lynas. A $1 billion Australian deal for lithium and cobalt is underway.

Refining Capacity: Public Sector company IREL’s Vizag plant produces 3,000 kg of samarium-cobalt magnets (aerospace-focused). A 20,000-tonne REE plant in Odisha by 2028 challenges CCP-occupied China’s 200,000-tonne capacity.

Policy: The 2024 EV policy cuts import tariffs to 15% for $500 million local investments, attracting Tesla but challenging domestic firms. Rs. 1,000 crore provision in public spending supports charging infrastructure for 100,000 EVs by 2030.

Innovation: Funds cobalt-free LFP batteries and REE substitutes, with IIT Mumbai developing tetrataenite magnets.

India’s indigenisation efforts align with its broader goal of reducing reliance on CCP-occupied China.

Indian EV Producers

India’s EV sales reached 100,000 units in 2024 (2.5% of 4.3 million car sales), targeting 30% by 2030.

Tata Motors: Leads with Nexon EV and Tigor EV, investing $1 billion. Opposes tariff cuts to protect its 60% market share.

Mahindra & Mahindra: Offers eVerito and XUV400 EV, with $500 million invested.

Maruti Suzuki: Launched e-Vitara in 2025, scaling up.

MG Motor India: A China-India joint venture company (SAIC-JSW), sells ZS EV.

VinFast: Vietnam’s entrant showcased EVs in 2025.

Telsa’s India investments ($2-3 billion) include Mumbai and Delhi showrooms, and also possibly a manufacturing facility in India for its selected cars.

CCP-occupied China's REE magnet bans and other unfair trade practices threaten indigenous and “Make in India for the World” production (~550g REEs per EV vs. 140g for ICE Vehicle). Domestic firms seek tariff protection against CCP-occupied China's EVs until 2029.

India is dealing with the CCP-occupied China threats by short term measures and long term plans for own production as stated above.

Congress Leader Rahul Gandhi’s EV Advocacy

Rahul Gandhi’s propaganda of EVs is notable. In interactions with Naga students and in an important parliamentary speech as leader of opposition, he raised concerns that were in alignment with CCP-occupied China’s interests.

Naga Students Interaction (February 2025): In a discussion with Naga students, Rahul Gandhi “emphasised EVs as part of a mobility “revolution”, stating, “Future of mobility will change everything”. He “urged” educational reforms to prepare for EV-driven industries, framing it as “economic progress”. This aligns with CCP-occupied China’s EV dominance, given India’s mineral import reliance.

Parliamentary Speech: Responding to the President’s Inaugural Address for the Budget 2025 session, Rahul Gandhi highlighted EVs, advocating for EV manufacturing to “create” jobs. He criticised Modi government’s “slow” progress on EV infrastructure. His focus on EVs without addressing supply chain risks fuels debate. His 2008 MoU with the CCP highlights transparency concerns, amplifying suspicions about his EV advocacy.

Strategic Considerations & Recommendations

Demoting CCP-occupied China linked EVs by US and India would impact CCP-occupied China’s 11.3 million EV sales and monopoly over supply chains.

Apropos, these recommendations are made.

U.S.: Expand MP Materials Corporation operations, fund LFP batteries, develop tetrataenite. Tariffs to protect domestic EVs producers.

India: Accelerate NCMM, secure KABIL assets, scale refining. Support Tata, Mahindra and other producers like Tesla if they focus on developing indigenous technology and supply chain diversification as well as resilience.

Global: Partner with Australia, Canada and Vietnam to diversify.

Conclusion

CCP-occupied China’s ~65-80% control over lithium, cobalt, and REE processing threatens EV markets. Trump’s anti-EV actions serve the immediate interests of the US. India’s robust efforts counter CCP-occupied China’s dominance. Rahul Gandhi’s EV advocacy in Nagaland and Parliament lacks a take on supply chain nuance. Diversifying supply chains and innovation can counter CCP-occupied China while also advancing alternative energy and more importantly self-reliance.