It would be prudent to ask that despite such heightened tensions and eight months of Indo-China standoff in Ladakh, why hasn’t a war erupted between the two countries. The answer to this is that unlike in 1962, this time we are prepared for war. Had we not been prepared, as was the case in 1962, China would have attacked us for sure, again just like they did in 1962. It may sound ironical to some but fact is that if eventually there is no war between India and China, it will only be because we’re prepared for it. That’s Clauswitz’s doctrine from his book On War.

However, having said this we must take a realistic view of the way things are at the moment. Both sides have mobilized their forces and we’ve a situation wherein we are at an eye ball to eye ball confrontation. There have been several rounds of talks at various levels, both political as well as military, but so far, they have failed to produce desired results. The situation appears to be a stalemate with both sides expecting the other to move back to its March status quo ante position. Yes, both sides have spoken about de-escalation and disengagement in joint statements issued after these meetings, but the fact remains that these words have not translated into any meaningful action on the ground except in Galwan valley, where Chinese troops have actually pulled back.

The most important issue remains in the area of Pangong Tso where both forces are deployed within a few hundred meters of each other. In the north bank of the lake, both forces have a detachment at Finger 4 with Indian forces being at a higher plane. Chinese want us to go back to Finger 3 whereas we want to go up to Finger 8. On the south bank, China wants us to vacate Rechin la, Rezang la and Helmet Top from where we have a direct line of sight to Moldo garrison where a large number of Chinese troops are stationed.

India has refused to agree to any of these demands. After what they did in Galwan, there is no way India can trust China. Our position is quite clear, there can be no alteration to Chinese positions to what it was in the month of March. Also, since they were the ones who changed the status quo, they ought to be the ones to move back. It is quite unlikely that we will vacate our newly occupied posts which we did on the night of 4-5 August. That would be fair since it was the Chinese who forced us to do so in the first place. Chinese, on their part, have also not agreed to our demands, and it is now obvious that these talks will yield little in future.

Apart from the mobilization of troops and the talks between the two sides, certain other developments have also taken place which merit attention. The first and foremost is formalization of the Malabar exercises with all four members of QUAD now taking part in it in November this year. This assumes significance since the focus of QUAD is to contain China militarily. After India, US and Japan, Australia forms the fourth pillar of this alliance to make it an even more formidable force, something to reckon with. Unsurprisingly, China is wary of this development. Apparently, this is another reason why it is hesitant to initiate action in Ladakh. It knows very well that Malabar exercise in November can turn into actual operations against China. Even if it doesnot, it links Ladakh theatre to South China sea since China would not be able to move troops from one theatre to another. That is a huge positive for India since given the current level of forces deployed, India seems to have an upper hand. In case war does break out in Ladakh, they will prove to be more than a match for China.

The confidence in India has further been boosted by the recent BECA agreement (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) in a 2+2 meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper with our Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. With this agreement India and US will now be able to share geo-spatial data in real time. It implies India gets access to data from 150 US military satellites which enables us to monitor any move of Chinese forces in real time and take action accordingly. To those who know, this would mean a huge positive for our defence preparedness. Pertinent to mention, China’s capability in this aspect are limited. They are still developing their satellite network and will take years to match what India has achieved with the stroke of a pen.

The third important development has been a statement by President Vladimir Putin wherein he says that a Russia-China military alliance cannot be ruled out. This statement was given a lot of attention by the media. However, what they fail to inform the readers is that China-Russia relationship is fraught with problems. Firstly, China doesn’t consider Russia an equal partner in this relationship. It wants Russia’s military technology which it tries to obtain through illegal means including reverse engineering. Russia, on its part, wants Chinese money which is scarce to come by because of sanctions imposed on it as a punishment for its Ukranian military adventure. Another important aspect in this context is that India is Russia’s largest buyer of weapons and ammunition. Russian military industrial complex thrives on export to Indian forces. Moreover, India’s relationship with Russia is not a transactional one. It is a decades old friendship based on equal partnership. Given the nature of this relationship it would be foolish for President Putin to forsake it in favour of an untrustworthy China. Moreover, those who follow geo-politics would agree that President Putin is the one of the most astute heads of state in current times. All his moves are extremely well thought out and have played out exactly as planned. Even his adventure in Ukraine didn’t elicit a military response. The sanctions imposed on Russia were the least the west could do, and that is the only thing they did.

Anyone expecting President Putin to put his own troops to fight a war for China is being naïve. It is not his war and he won’t fight it. That statement made by him was the least that is expected out of him. And that is exactly what he did. His statement doesn’t talk of a commitment or a timed schedule for such an alliance. It is just a vague statement to satisfy some geo-political hawks. To be clear, China is alone in this battle with possibly Pakistan and North Korea on its side only, who may be just their half-hearted supporters, as they have their own more immediate problems to deal with.

This brings us to the question of what happens from here on. To get a clear understanding of this we need to look at some activities scheduled in the near future, the first being the US elections. Joe Biden, the democrat contestant is a well-known China lover with his son Hunter Biden having several business relationships with Chinese firms. This poses a dilemma for many, should Biden come to power. However, the sentiment against China within the US is so strong that Biden will unlikely be able to change course. The establishment and the so-called Deep State wouldn’t allow it. How exactly this plays out, just in case he wins, is something we can only guess at this point. If Donald Trump wins, we would see more of the same US belligerence which we have seen so far.

The second activity we need to look out for is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting scheduled at the end of November in India. SCO is a regional security and stability forum of which all three, viz India, China as well as Russia are members. It is being hoped that Russia brokers a peace between India and China, which India wants too but not at the cost of territorial integrity. China on the other hand, would only want to extract a face saver. Unfortunately, both these are contradictory to each other. So, a resolution seems unlikely but we will have to wait and see if China blinks under Russian pressure. Pertinent to mention that Defence Minister Rajnath Singh met with his Chinese counterpart Gen Wei Fenghe in Russia in September this year under the aegis of SCO itself but nothing concrete had materialized then.

The third issue in this context is that by the time SCO meeting gets over it will be end of November by when we will have more than ten feet of snow in higher reaches of Ladakh where the troops are deployed against each other. As can be imagined, no serious operations can take place under such conditions, though minor incidents happening should not be much of a surprise.

And therefore, it can be surmised that even though we are prepared for any eventuality, this is a time to wait and watch. Something will give or someone will have to give in. There can no two ways about it. Two fully armed neighbours cannot remain in perpetual preparedness of war with their troops just a shouting distance from each other. If nothing or no-one gives, we should not be surprised if the war erupts as a result of an accidental shooting by the troops. A planned war would any day be preferable to an accidental war.   

Image Credit: The Financial Express, https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/india-china-news-live-border-clash-today-chinese-soldiers-killed-galwan-ladakh-modi-rajnath-russia-china-cyber-attack/1999153/