Union Home Minister had recently addressed a poll campaign at the Rajiv Gandhi playground at Borgolai in Margherita town of Tinsukia district of Upper Assam, where he clearly stated that andolan (agitation) and infiltration in the state would be a thing of the past if the BJP is once again voted to power. It is important to note here that Margherita is located in a strategic location in the map of Assam. The Union Government is gradually stepping up efforts to reopen the historic Stilwell Road connecting Margherita’s Ledo to Myanmar. As mentioned by Sarbananda Sonowal, the process has already been initiated by PM Narendra Modi. It is undoubtedly a welcome initiative for if it really happens, Margherita would soon be known across the globe, besides leading to the creation of ample opportunities for trade, cultural exchange and jobs for the youth. Home Minister Amit Shah further went on in his speech to criticise the Congress Party for its open alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by Maulana Badruddin Ajmal.

The question that arises now is – Will the Congress be able to make a comeback this time in Assam, holding on to the reins of the AIUDF? If such a situation happens, what lies ahead in store for the Assamese Hindus, their culture and identity? Or, will the BJP register a historic win, gaining a lion’s share of the seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly?

Of all the 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam, the fate of the Congress Party this time is largely going to be decided by the Nazira constituency in Sivasagar district that goes to the polls on March 27, 2021. Well-known as a strong Congress citadel since Independence, the declaration of Mayur Borgohain from the BJP instead of the former candidate Prahlad Guwala has angered the tea-garden janajatis in about 34 tea gardens of the constituency. It has also dissatisfied a large number of followers of the senior BJP leader Dharmeswar Konwar, who sought nomination from Nazira. The Assam Tea Tribes Students’ Association (ATTSA) through a series of meetings in various places, has been demanding their community’s representatives in the Assembly from tea garden areas since a long time. Hence, the deprivation of one of them from the panel has been taken as a humiliating blow to their self-esteem. The ATTSA has also resolved to launch an awareness campaign against the BJP-led government across the state for its failure to fix the minimum wages of the tea garden workers since 2018.

But, according to a section of the tea garden community here, Prahlad Guwala has already built a solid base for the BJP in the tea garden areas and thus it would not be very difficult for Mayur Borgohain to take off the reins forward. This has been coupled with the BJP’s well-devised strategy of reaching out to every tea garden worker as a beneficiary, which has definitely put the INC in a state of considerable discomfiture. It is in this backdrop that Rahul Gandhi’s recent visit to the district headquarters and the attendance of a large number of Congress party supporters from Nazira Legislative Assembly Constituency (LAC) can be understood. Similarly, pictures of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s recent interaction with tea garden workers at Sadharu tea estate in Biswanath while picking up a basket and plucking tea leaves during her visit to poll-bound Assam went viral on social media. These are theatrics that actually speak a lot about the Congress Party’s last-ditch attempt to re-establish its foothold among the tea garden community. 

Another severe jolt to the Congress Party has come after the general secretary of the Assam Chah Mazdoor Sangh (ACMS) Rupesh Gowala, joined the BJP and is now contesting from Doomdooma LAC. Ironically, Gowala was recently vocal against the BJP over wage and other important issues affecting the tea garden workers. Such a shifting of allegiance by one of the top leaders of the ACMS to an ideologically different BJP has come as a major blow to the Congress Party’s prospects in the tea belt of Upper Assam. The ACMS has always maintained a hegemonic hold in these areas with a significant political clout. This was made possible partly because of its affiliation with its parent body, i.e. the Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC), and an open political affiliation with the Congress.

Those who have keenly observed the political scenario of Assam would definitely vouch for the fact that the ACMS served as a very important pillar for the Congress Party to hold on to Assam for several decades. This time too, it was leaning upon the ACMS’ influence to garner mass votes from the state’s plantation industry. But, several ACMS leaders, who once happened to be the closest friends of some top Congress leaders, have begun to detach themselves from the party over what they have referred to as the latter’s step-motherly attitude towards the leaders from the tea garden working community.

Rupesh Gowala had earlier contested in the Assembly election on a Congress ticket from Doomdooma in 2011, but suffered defeat. This time too, he was one of the two aspirants for a Congress ticket from Doomdooma along with sitting Congress MLA Durga Bhumij. But, in a dramatic change of scenario, he switched loyalty and joined the BJP, thereby managing to secure a party ticket from Doomdooma. But several senior and dedicated leaders of the BJP including Tinsukia district BJP President Lakeswar Moran were among the aspirants for the party ticket from Doomdooma LAC. Consequently, Lakheswar Moran has filed his nomination as an Independent candidate against Rupesh Gowala.

Notably, Lakheswar Moran already has a strong base among the party workers and as well as in the constituency. Immediately after Prakash Gowala’s candidature, a section of dissatisfied grassroot-level BJP workers including a few panchayat ward members too, joined the Congress and expressed their allegiance to the Congress leader and sitting MLA of Doomdooma Durga Bhumij. Backed by bigwig Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma, the fate of Rupesh Gowala now depends upon how well he can manage the dissidence in the party and sail through the storm.     

Besides Nazira, the Titabar Assembly seat (Jorhat parliamentary constituency) is another traditional Congress bastion. The BJP, it seems, has adopted a well-chalked out game-plan to capture Titabar, quite similar to the strategy that it had adopted in wresting the Jorhat constituency from the Congress Party in the 2016 Assembly elections. It then succeeded by fielding Hitendra Nath Goswami, who was a former senior AGP leader and a former minister in the second term of the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta-led government. The BJP has now decided to field Hemanta Kalita from Titabar, an old friend who is also a former AGP MLA from the same place (1996-2001). Kalita had unsuccessfully contested the polls on an AGP ticket three times against the Congress. He joined the BJP in 2015. Kalita had also contested from the Teok seat on an AGP ticket in 2011, but failed to win against the then incumbent Congress candidate Membar Gogoi.

Among several ticket contenders, the BJP is smart enough to have picked up Kalita who is a known face among the people of Titabar, having a very good grasp of the grassroot-level politics here. A brief revisit of the political dynamics in this Congress stronghold of Upper Assam would remind us that the BJP had succeeded in reducing the victory margin of the then CM Tarun Gogoi in the 2016 Assembly polls by fielding then Jorhat Lok Sabha MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa. The party thereafter managed to gain control of the Titabar-headquartered Thengal Kachari Autonomous Council polls that are conducted under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution of India. It was precisely from this time onwards that the BJP has been consistently trying to build a strong organisational base in Titabar, aided by several years of hard work of the RSS cadres active in the area. Also, by bringing in local Congress and AGP leaders to its (BJP) fold in the past five years, the party is now rightly hopeful of seeing the lotus blooming in Titabar. The ball now lies in the court of the electorate of Titabar. It is they who will finally decide which of the two political fronts should be voted to power. But the game is definitely going to be a tough one for the Congress! 

The Mahmora LAC in Charaideo electoral district under the Jorhat parliamentary constituency is another interesting one. It happens to be the least developed of all the 10 assembly segments. Despite having a large number of prosperous tea estates, installations of the Oil India Ltd., and numerous small tea growers, the economic scenario of Mahmora has not changed much during the last several decades. The political leadership of the constituency till just a few years back, could hardly make any substantial impact on the politics of the state, nor could it bring cheers among the agrarian population which constitute a sizeable chunk of the constituency’s populace. Mahmora made the headlines in the last decade for all the wrong reasons that Assam had been known for. It was then a safe den of ULFA insurgents, and later witnessed SULFA (Surrendered United Liberation Front of Assam) excesses too on a large scale. As expected, the constituency has a legacy of a strong presence of the Left parties besides the Congress in its tea belt. The Assam Movement was significant in the sense that it was able to bring a sizeable section of the members of these parties into the fold of the AGP.

The BJP has now built up an enviable ground base in Mahmora. It had sent Minister of State for Revenue, Lok Nirman and Disaster Management Jogen Mohan to the state Assembly in the 2016 elections from this constituency. Mohan had defeated Suraj Dihingia of the Congress Party by a comfortable margin of 14, 325 votes. The 2021 election is going to be a very competitive one with the emergence of the ‘third front’ comprising of the Assam Jatiya Parishad-Raijor Dal combine. The Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal had held its first political convention in Mahmora considering the large number of followers of Gogoi’s Leftist party in this area. This ‘third front’ has fielded Lohit Gogoi who is said to be a trusted lieutenant of Akhil Gogoi. It was Lohit Gogoi who, along with Bhasco de Saikia, had spearheaded the anti-CAA stir in Upper Assam after the arrest of Akhil Gogoi on December 12, 2019 during the height of the protests in the state against CAA. But it is uncertain whether the AJP is going to extend its support to Lohit Gogoi or not. The rift between the two may eventually prove to be a straight bipolar contest between the ruling BJP and the Congress. The numbers game is definitely going to be an intriguing one in Mahmora, one of the most socio-economically backward areas of Upper Assam.  

Lakhimpur and Bihpuria LAC seats (both in Lakhimpur district) are also in the way of a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP after the formal announcement of candidates by both the parties. The Congress has declared Dr. Joy Prakash Das as its candidate for the Lakhmipur LAC along with AICC general secretary Bhupen Bora, who is set to contest from Bihpuria. The BJP has declared Manab Deka and Dr. Amiya Kumar Bhuyan as its candidates for the Lakhimpur and Bihpuria LACs, respectively. Manab Deka is said to be a close aide of BJP heavyweight Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma since their Congress days. He has entered into the electoral fray for the first time and is going to face stiff resistance from Congress’ Dr. Joy Prakash Das. The latter had lost by a whisker in the 2016 Assembly polls due to dissidence by a fellow party man. But both Manab Deka and Dr. Joy Prakash Das have been very much visible on public occasions across Lakhmipur LAC during the last few years, preparing their groundwork for the 2021 polls.

In Bihpuria LAC, the Congress’ Bhupen Bora (a two-time former MLA) is a familiar face, while Dr. Amiya Kumar Bhuyan is considered to be close to CM Sarbananda Sonowal. Dr. Bhuyan is a former AASU leader and ex-Congress worker, who has been associated with various types of social works, including flood relief. He bagged the candidature from Bihpuria following the denial of party ticket to incumbent MLA Debananda Hazarika. Naturally, Dr. Bhuyan will face a level of dissidence from Hazarika’s supporters and it is quite possible that these votes may directly go to the Bhupen Bora/Congress camp. The recent visit of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to the Bihpuria constituency can be directly situated in this context.

Another constituency which is likely to witness a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP in the ensuing Assembly elections is the Sootea constituency of Tezpur. While the BJP has fielded sitting MLA Padma Hazarika for the seat, Praneswar Basumatary has been granted ticket by the Congress. Both the candidates had started their campaign much earlier in their selected pockets to woo the voters. The presence of a large section of Bodo voters in Sootea is going to determine the pattern of voting this time, considering that Praneswar Basumatary belongs to the Bodo community. Padma Hazarika of the BJP is up for a tough challenge. Another important aspect is that despite a pro-BJP wave in the last Assembly elections, Hazarika had won from the constituency by a thin margin of 1,892 votes against his contender. Since the Congress and the AIUDF have forged an alliance, the anti-CAA camp is definitely going to help the Congress candidate in the election. The entry of the BPF into the alliance has proved to be an icing on the cake for Basumatary.

It needs to be mentioned here that Padma Hazarika has been dominating the constituency since the year 2006. Besides the Bodos, another important determinant here is the voting pattern of the Muslim community. In 2016, Padma Hazarika had polled a sizeable percentage of the Muslim votes, but whether the Muslims are in favour of voting for him this time too cannot be said with certainty. Due to several evictions drives that have been carried out over the last couple of months in Chowkighat and a few nearby areas of Tezpur such as Thelamara against illegal land encroachments. On October 21, 2020 the Sonitpur district administration had demolished over 60 houses of illegal settlers from Bhora-Singri-Sutipahar area on the banks of the Brahmaputra under Thelamara Police Station and Barchala LAC. There were about 2,200 families in the area out of which only 250 families were found to be legal Indian citizens, while the remaining 1,950 families were all illegal settlers from Bangladesh.

Many suspected illegal Bangladeshis have settled not only in the area surrounding Tezpur LAC, but also at Dulabari, Bhumuraguri, Batomari, Barghat, Barghuli, Napaam (Sulmara), Bhumuraguri bridge to Bishnu Prasad Rabha Samadhi Kshetra on the north bank of the river Brahmapura. They have also occupied huge chunks of government lands at the Burhachapori Reserve Forest area. Among the nine LACs in Sonitpur district, Sootea, Biswanath, Tezpur, and Barchala have been the most highly affected ones. After making these areas their safe haven, the illegal migrants have been carrying out various unlawful activities such as car-lifting, burglary, theft and robbery, running of cow syndicates in close association with certain local influential forces, etc. Locals suspect that some influential land mafias have sold lands to suspected illegal Bangladeshis, which has changed the entire demographic complexion of Tezpur and its surrounding areas within a time-period of a few years. Coming to the electoral prospects of the BJP versus the Congress Party led alliance and given the current political and demographic dynamics, the Sootea constituency is going to witness a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP.              

It has been argued in certain circles that the electoral prospects of the Congress-AIUDF-led Mahajot could have possibly brightened to a large measure if both the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal (RD) had joined it. But they have made it crystal clear that they would maintain equidistance from the BJP, the Congress, and the AIUDF at any cost, dubbing them all as communal parties. This has proved to be a spanner in the Congress strategy of putting up an anti-CAA front especially in those seats from where the Mahajot was expecting to take advantage of the anti-CAA sentiments of the voters. The Congress alliance feels that this move of the AJP and the RD will only help the BJP.

The now imprisoned “peasant leader” Akhil Gogoi had recently written an open letter addressing the people of Assam with an appeal to oust the ruling BJP from power in the forthcoming election. In the letter, he also urged the voters to vote for the Raijor Dal. Interestingly, Gogoi appealed to the voters to exercise their franchise in support of the candidates fielded by regional and communist parties in general so as to oust the BJP. Again, in case of those constituencies where both regional and communist parties have not fielded candidates or where candidates of such parties have little support base, Akhil Gogoi had asked the voters to cast their votes in favour of the candidate of any opposition party who could defeat the BJP candidate.

The letter has clearly proven Mr. Gogoi’s real intentions and reasons behind his discomfort with the BJP. Immediately after the coming to power of the BJP Government in Assam, Akhil Gogoi was arrested on the charge of inciting violence during the eviction drive in Kaziranga National Park against illegal encroachers. Akhil Gogoi has always been a vocal critic of the BJP government for the eviction of illegal encroachers from revenue villages near Kaziranga, Tezpur and various other places in Assam. He owns the sprawling Kaziranga Orchid and Biodiversity Park which has now turned into a must-visit spot for tourists. It was served an eviction notice from the Bokakhat District Authorities in July, 2018 on the ground that the Park has encroached 6.1 bighas of government land in addition to the 22 bighas allotted to them by the Government of Assam. He had also been at the forefront of the anti-CAA protests in Assam.

In a charge-sheet filed by the NIA against Akhil Gogoi, it was alleged that Gogoi had clandestine plans to instigate violence between the Assamese and the Bengalis in Amravati area, a largely Hindu Bengali-inhabited locality in Chabua town of Dibrugarh district. However, the administration soon got a hint of it and was able to successfully foil their sinister designs.

Akhil Gogoi did not categorically urge the people to vote for the AJP, the alliance partner of Raijor Dal for the election. This has also brought to the fore the internal clash that is taking place between the two newly-formed regional parties regarding seat sharing. Terming the BJP as a “communal fascist political outfit”, Gogoi has cited imposition of the CAA, recommencement of the Lower Subansiri Hydroelectric Project work, and the setting up of toll gates at national highways, etc. as some of the “misdeeds” committed by the BJP regime in Assam. As observed by Gogoi in the letter, “It is time to defeat the BJP at any cost in the interest of saving Assam and its people.” In a quite dramatic turn of events, Akhil Gogoi recently withdrew his nomination from Mariani where he was earlier supposed to contest. Raijor Dal working President Bhasco de Saikia has said that the decision to withdraw Gogoi’s nomination from Mariani has been primarily taken to prevent a division of the anti-BJP votes, thereby ensuring the defeat of the BJP from the same constituency.

The Congress has fielded its sitting MLA Rupjyoti Kurmi from Mariani and it was anticipated that he would have a direct contest with Akhil Gogoi. With Gogoi leaving Mariani, the three-time heavyweight Congress MLA will now have a direct fight with the BJP’s Ramani Tanti, a not much popular face. After the withdrawal of Akhil Gogoi’s candidature, Union Textiles Minister Smriti Irani participated in a rally on March 13, 2021 where she was seen to be vociferously campaigning for the BJP’s Ramani Tanti. It will be interesting to see in the coming days how the BJP’s Tanti, a businessman from the tea garden community, tries to wrest the seat from Rupjyoti Kurmi. The Mariani seat has traditionally been with the Congress Party since 1967, barring one full-term from 1985 to 1990 and also from 2004 to 2006 when Alok Ghosh won the seat in a by-election on a Trinamool Congress ticket.

But, the most important question that arises here is – by withdrawing his nomination from Mariani, is Akhil Gogoi facilitating the win of the Congress? Why did his letter mention only the BJP, and not make a single mention of Badruddin Ajmal and the AIUDF while he spoke of saving the interests of Assam? These are genuine questions that seek an honest answer. Both Sivasagar and Mariani are going to the polls in the first phase on March 27.

After withdrawing his candidature from Mariani, Akhil Gogoi is now contesting only from Sivasagar LAC. Although there are altogether six candidates in the fray, but it is in the way of a high-octane three-cornered fight between the BJP’s Surobhi Rajkumari, Subhramitra Gogoi of the Congress, and Akhil Gogoi of the Raijor Dal. Akhil Gogoi’s nomination from the constituency has already made newspaper headlines and a tough contest appears imminent in Sivasagar. His supporters had taken out a huge rally on March 8, optimistic of the fact that the people will come out in large numbers to vote for a change. Akhil Gogoi has also made an appeal to the voters of Sivasagar to support his cause in order to strengthen democracy and resist the “communal designs” of the BJP.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, former speaker of the Assam Legislative Assembly and four-time MLA Pranab Kumar Gogoi could return from the Sivasagar constituency despite a strong Modi wave primarily because of his personal image, the Congress Party’s strong organisational network with a large section of Muslim voters and a division of the anti-Congress voters. But, in the 2021 elections, Congress candidate Subhamitra Gogoi will face some difficulty. It is because one of the contenders for party nomination and APCC General Secretary Kalyan Gogoi has resigned from the party over the denial of ticket to him. On the other hand, the poll prospects of Surobhi Rajkumari of the BJP who lost the last election by a thin margin of only 542 votes, have been emboldened this time by visits of high-profile leaders and campaigners such as PM Narendra Modi and Smriti Irani. Thus, the final contest in Sivasagar will mainly take place between the Congress and the BJP.

Soon after the decision of not allying with the AIUDF at the behest of Akhil Gogoi, “eminent intellectual” from Assam Dr. Hiren Gohain has resigned from the post of chief advisor of the Raijor Dal, saying that the BJP represents a larger challenge than the AIUDF. It may be noted here that during the 2016 Assam Assembly elections too, this same “intellectual” and former professor at the Guwahati University Dr Hiren Gohain, had signed a petition and called for a press conference asking the people of the state to not vote for the BJP. The petition mentioned that the BJP was trying to divide the state on communal lines and it was ‘the biggest enemy of the state’. At that time, it was a well-crafted plot to hold the press conference right on the eve of the election, so that with the Model Code of Conduct in effect, the BJP was in no position to respond to the charges levelled against it. This trend of a few “intellectual elites” of our society to lead public opinion on various occasions is actually reflective a deep-rooted problem in Indian democracy today. It is really unforgiving when these same people make use of the influence of their offices and social standing to satisfy their own partisan goals, even at the cost of the larger well-being of their own people. Dr. Hiren Gohain’s resignation from the Raijor Dal on the ground of the latter not allying with Maulana Ajmal’s AIUDF proves his intention of pandering to the members of only one particular religious community.

President of the AJP Lurinjyoti Gogoi has also stated that there is no question of his party joining hands with national and communal parties, its main goal being the strengthening of regionalism in the state. But Lurinjyoti Gogoi’s visit to a Janaja and reading Namaz in a Masjid soon after his taking over charge as the President of the AJP, are enough to raise doubts about the AJP’s brand of secularism in the minds of the common middle-class Assamese voter. The AJP, Raijor Dal, and Anchalik Gana Morcha all owe their birth to the anti-CAA crusade that rocked Assam in late December 2019 and the beginning of January 2020. Hence, the sole purpose of all these three parties in particular, is to weed out “non-secular” forces from the seat of power. They are now leaving no stone unturned to reach the doorsteps of the common people, especially in Upper Assam which was the centre-stage of the anti-CAA protests.

There is little doubt that both the AJP and the Raijor Dal are weary of the division of the anti-CAA votes in Upper Assam, hence, their distance from the Congress-Mahajot alliance. But they have played the emotive card very well, especially among those who feel betrayed by the BJP’s promises over the Assam Accord and the CAA. However, translating this same feeling into votes may be a different ball game altogether. The AJP-Raijor Dal is still a temporary arrangement to be true, and it is still a long way from now when voters would really come to see it as a real, viable alternative o the ruling BJP.

 

Inputs for this article have been gathered on the basis of a day-to-day analysis of various news articles on the Assam Assembly Elections 2021 published in The Sentinel, The Assam Tribune, Dainik Janambhoomi, and Amar Asom newspapers.  

 

Acknowledgement: A very special note of thanks to all those karyakartas and booth-level workers of the RSS and the ABVP (Guwahati unit), especially S. Sarmah Baruah for providing me minute details in my study of the Assam elections.

 

Image Credit: ABP Live