Before a few days, one video went viral on social media in which a person was provoking Muslims to block the chicken neck and cutoff the North-East India. Yes, that Sharjeel Imam is now arrested but his threat had potential, in my opinion. We must hope for good but prepare for worst.

He made it very clear that Muslims should block the roads and railways of chicken neck of India.

Chicken neck and Chumbi valley are the strategic places for India. Chicken neck, or Siliguri corridor, is just 17 kilometer wide at one place. Defence strategic terms the corridor as “vulnerable part” and “geographical curse”. Hence, I did the demographic and other analysis of the region around the chicken neck and it’s seriously worrying for us.

First, let’s talk about demography.

There are six districts of West Bengal which are nearer to the chicken neck. They are: Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, Dakshin Dinajpur, Darjiling, Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar. Malda has 51.27%, U.D. has 49.92%, D.D. has 24.63%, Cooch Behar has 25.54%, Jalpaiguri has 11.51% and Darjeeling has 5.69% Muslim population according to census of India (2011).

Here is the attachment of religious demographics per sub-districts drafted by Center for Policy Studies.

Figure 1:- Overall Muslim population distribution in West Bengal

Figure 2:- Muslim population in area which are sensitive

Figure 2 is the zoomed in picture of the area where chicken neck becomes too narrow. Muslims are in the majority at these areas. If we include the Muslim populations of the nearby districts then it can cross the figure of 5 million. Even 1% of them, that is 50000, can do something like this then it will be chaotic.

Second, let’s talk about demographic changes. This is 9 year old data of 2011. We don’t have latest data of Muslim population but Muslim population is increasing at a level of 1.5-2% in West Bengal. Several reports have mentioned that Muslims in the West Bengal are increasing at higher rate than rest of India.

It is approaching to pre-partition level of approximate 30%. Here’s the snapshot of data from report of Center for Policy studies.

Figure 3:- Muslim population acceleration in West Bengal

 We can see that how Muslim population in the West Bengal has increased from 19.46% to 27.01% during 1951-2011. Prior to 1941, Muslim population was 29.48 which might be the number that we come across in the 2021 census.

Third, let’s talk about infiltration. India-Bangladesh didn’t have formalized border before 2015 agreements and exchange of chittmahals. Chittamahals are the enclaves across the India-Bangladesh borders which were infamous for the gun-human trafficking and hub of illegal activities.

We had a porous border which was beneficial for infiltrators to cross and come here. Police couldn’t do anything significant due to restrictions in their area. For example, an India Today report had quoted the officer Mukherjee who was deputy superintendent of Cooch Behar region which is near the chicken neck. He said, “You see, we are working in a helpless situation. The enclaves do not come under our jurisdiction, but we very well know what’s happening where. We cannot arrest criminals hiding in enclaves.”

In addition, Bangladeshi intelligence gave reports to India that more than 3000 militants of Jamaat-ul-Mujahiddin and Harkat-ul-Jihadi Al-Islami have entered into the India during 2014-17.

Islampur-Siliguri railway line, the meter gage line of Eastern railway, goes through a highly Muslim dominated area. That is significant to Indian defence and forms the Indian mainland connection to north-east India.

Sharjeel Imam not only gave a threat but he revealed the potential probability that this can happen too. The Indian government shouldn’t take a chance when the intentions are revealed. We must act now and sensitize the affected areas with different measures.