The Alaska Summit between President Trump and President Putin has been the major talking point for various reasons. An invitation to President Putin for direct talks ended the Western isolation that began with Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine. More than three years into the war, which Trump has proclaimed “should have never happened”, has turned into an acid test for the much-trumpeted negotiation skills of the US president who got re-elected on the promise of ending the war ‘within 24 hours’.

Close to eight months into his inauguration, Trump failed to make a headway in the Ukrainian peace process. Worse still, barking at the wrong tree, Trump not only impaired the trade ties with India, Treasury Secretary threatened New Delhi with secondary sanctions if “things don’t go well” during talks between Putin and Trump. Hours before the scheduled summit between the two Presidents, European leaders in a virtual meeting urged the US not to strike a unilateral Ukrainian deal.

Soon, the leaders of the Coalition of the Willing also held talks with the US Vice-President JD Vance, where President Zelenskyy put forth five key ‘common principles’ to guide the negotiations. These are -nothing related to Ukraine should be discussed without Ukraine; there should be US, Russia and Ukraine trilateral; a precondition for Russian ceasefire for the peace talks to begin in all earnest; fourth, Ukraine should receive security guarantees and Moscow can’t veto Ukraine’s EU or NATO prospects and finally, Russia should face fresh sanctions if Putin refuses to ceasefire. Sufficiently briefed by the European leaders, Trump, who bluntly hinted at ‘land swapping’ initially, reprimanded Putin of “very severe consequences” in the run-up to the summit.

Trump announced a summit with Putin after his deadline for sanctions on Russia’s touted “shadow fleet” had expired on August 8^th, without facing any consequences.  With a reputation of bombastic threats culminating in a “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) and episodic blusters ending in a blooper, it was hardly any surprise when Trump remarked, “it’s not a deal until done”. Trump’s call for direct talks with Putin underscores his strategic weakness as Moscow remained unflinching in the face of sanctions designed to cripple its oil trade and finances. Nor does the penalty on countries trading with Russia work in his favour. PM Modi rebuffed his threats and strongly resisted US attempts to gain access to the Indian agriculture and dairy sectors.

The Ukraine war is becoming unsustainable to the US, and in the backdrop of Russia’s continued advances into Eastern Ukraine, it is turning into a major setback for the West. As per the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has gained 2350 sq. kilometres since December 2024. Frustrated by Russian escalations and the lack of progress towards a ceasefire, Trump shortened the 50-day deadline on July 28.

Later, in response to Russia’s former President Dimitri Medvedev’s perceived “inflammatory remarks” on August 1, Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines closer to Russia. On August 4^th, far from being ruffled, Russia withdrew from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which it unilaterally upheld after the US suspended its participation in 2019.  The announcement, coinciding with the anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, cautioned of an impending “nuclear reality” replete with burgeoning nuclear risks. Trump’s lame negotiation tactics, online barbs and ultimatums have miserably failed to bring Putin to the table.

Trump’s trail of desperation became more evident as he warmly greeted Putin on the tarmac with a B-2 bomber escorted by four F-35s flying overhead and F-22s lined along the runway. The staged display of American might was responded to in full measure by Russia, by bombing Ukraine around the same time. Trump’s show of power revealed America’s insecurities and growing anxiety. 

After three hours of closed-door one-on-one talks, while Putin triumphantly walked away saying, “Next time in Moscow”, like a burdened general, Trump admitted, “We didn’t get there”. A seasoned intelligence veteran, Putin has assessed the weakness of Trump’s pompous vanity and ceded not an inch. In fact, a direct conversation with Trump has ended Russia’s diplomatic isolation and put him on an equal footing with the European leaders. Excluded from the talks, the direct stakeholders of the region’s security, Ukraine and European leaders, together with Trump’s act of rehabilitating Putin, widened transatlantic rifts.

Unquestionably hailed as “peacemaker” by minions under diplomatic duress, the summit punctured Trump’s tall claims of master dealmaker.  Trump’s ultimatums and sanction threats have, till now, failed to make peace; on the contrary, it exposed his bullying tactics. Across the board, bullies are deemed cowards. Chinese resistance to Trump’s sanctions, Putin’s defiance towards peace negotiations on US terms and India’s stark rejection of mediation claims during Operation Sindoor have underscored the futility of tariff/sanction threats.

Putin is certainly in no hurry to clinch a ceasefire agreement. While admitting that the “conversation was very frank, substantive, and, in my opinion, brings us closer to the necessary decisions. We had the opportunity, which we did, to talk about the genesis, about the causes of this crisis”, and reiterated, “It is the elimination of these root causes that should be the basis for settlement”. Ukraine is an “existential war” for Putin and “non-negotiable” for Russia. Embarking for Alaska, Trump stated that his main goal is a ceasefire, a stance echoed by Ukraine, “Our vision is a ceasefire first, and then everything else”.

However, shortly after meeting Putin, Trump wrote on social media, “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.” Eyeing a long-term durable plan, Putin is steadfast about Russia’s security interests. Intractable in his approach, Putin has vowed to protect the interests of the Russian-speaking people in the occupied regions.

For long, Russia has been firm on steps for a durable peace and strongly opposed to Ukraine’s association with the EU and NATO. Putin expressed concerns about the swift militarisation of Europe and its plans to deploy peacekeepers on the ground.  This runs contrary to Trump’s short-term, Nobel Peace Prize-winning plan of huddling the stakeholders into a quick agreement. Right now, Putin is testing the waters. His first priority on the list is to negotiate the lifting of the stringent sanctions regime on Russia. Putin is here for the long haul. His calibrated, clinical plan would test the diplomatic patience of Trump.  

Humiliated, disrespected, and isolated globally, Putin has quietly endured everything from being labelled as a ‘war criminal to being accorded a red-carpet welcome on US soil’. The Alaska Summit is a turnaround of sorts for Putin, who has weathered numerous economic and geopolitical storms. Leading Russia through the thick and thin for over 25 years, Putin has mastered the craft of diplomacy, which is reduced to a social-media bluster by Trump.

For Trump, Ukraine is a “photo-opportunity move”, while the security calculus of Russia hinges on resolving the issue. Peace is not a breakthrough for Putin but inevitable for Russian sovereignty. Russia made the cardinal mistake of buying James Baker’s promise to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO wouldn’t move “one inch to the east”. This time around, Russia would want the origins of the conflict hammered out for eternity. Peace remains elusive until the moot point is addressed.

The Alaska Summit is just the beginning..