The Context

Climate change has emerged as among the most critical issues facing the world. A strong signal for global cooperation on climate change was given by the Paris Agreement, which is legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP (Conference of the Parties) 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by around 2050¹.

Table 1 provides data on cumulative carbon dioxide in select countries from 1750 to 2018. If data were adjusted for size of the population, India (and China) would rank much lower. Even then, most countries in the Table 1 are high per capita income countries. If the measurement is since the year 2000, then China, in spite of high population, would rank high in emissions per capita as it has industrialized rapidly since then, and coal has been as important source in its industrialization.

Table 1: Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions worldwide from 1750 to 2019, by major country²

Country Carbon Dioxide Emissions (in billion metric tons) United States 410.24 China 219.99 Russia 113.88 Germany 91.98 United Kingdom 77.84 Japan 64.58 India 51.94 France 38.26 Canada 33.11 Ukraine 29.55 Poland 27.56 Italy 24.38

India is a signatory to the Paris Agreement. The COP26 United Nations summit is expected to take place from 1 – 12 November 2021, in Glasgow, UK.

Figure 1 provides greenhouse gas emissions by sector. It shows that agriculture, forestry, and land use account for about one-fifth of the global greenhouse emissions. Thus, any improvements toward more climate resilient practices in this area have the potential to impact greenhouse gases significantly.

Figure 1: Global Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sector

It is in the above context that this column discusses improving water productivity and mitigating and adapting to climate change by altering crop and food production and consumption in India. Mitigation refers to addressing the complex causes of climate change. Adaptation measures concern finding local-context specific innovative ways to adjust to the impacts of climate change.

The column explains how this can be achieved by making a moderate, gradual shift at the margin to plant -based from the animal-based products and practices.  Within each of the two categories, there is a scope for a moderate shift in crops grown and in food consumption to achieve the above objectives. This strategy is likely to cause minimal disruption as each year only a modest increase in the overall share of less water and climate change friendly crops in both production and consumption would occur. Cumulatively however the impact will be significant over the medium term.

In making such a shift, the principle of substitution is an important concept. In economics, this principle states that relatively cheaper input, goods and services performing essentially the same function would be substituted for relatively more expensive ones.

In the current context, this suggests that those crops and other food items in production and consumption with relatively larger water and climate change footprints could be substituted, within limits, for those which exhibit relatively lower footprints. In applying this principle, local context, and judgement about trade-offs (for example applying this principle versus reducing country’s import dependence on key food crops and products), would need to be applied. The proposed shift could also assist in improving nutritional value of consumed food, thus helping to address India’s malnutrition challenge.

Composition of India’s Agricultural and Horticultural Production

On the basis of data on India’s agricultural and horticultural production in 2014-15 and in 2020-21 in Table 2A and 2B, the following observations may be made.

Table 2A:    India’s Food Crop Production (in Million Tons)³

Sr No	Crop Category	Crop	2014-2015		Est. Prod. In 2020-2021 (Third Estimate)
1	Food grains		252.0	(100.0)	305.4	(100.0)
1.1		Rice	105.5	(41.9)	121.5	(39.8)
1.2		Wheat	86.5	(34.3)	108.8	(35.6)
1.3		Nutri / Coarse Cereals	42.9	(17.0)	49.7	(16.3)
1.4		Pulses	17.2	(6.8)	25.6	(8.4)
2	Oilseeds		27.5		36.6
3	Sugarcane		382.3		392.8
4	Cotton#		34.8		36.5
5	Jute & Mesta##		11.1		9.6

# Million Bales (of 170 kg each)

## Million Bales (of 180 kg each)

Figures in brackets are percentages of the total

India’s food grain production at 305.4 million tons in 2020-21 is less than the horticulture production of 326.6 million tons. Both exhibit healthy growth as compared to 2014-15. India’s food grain production heavily relies on rice and sugar cane which are water intensive crops. While the total production is not high for India’s needs and export potential, where they are grown in the country, and how to add value to them (e.g., fortification of rice is planned to increase nutritional value and obtain higher export prices) are the main policy challenges.

There has been a significant increase in the share of pulses, which are nutritious, from 6.8 percent in 2014-15 to 8.1 percent in 2020-21. There has also been encouraging increase in oilseed production of 36 percent between 2014-15 and 2020-21. But India continues to rely on imported cooking oil for about two-thirds of its consumption. To address this imbalance, the Government has accorded priority to increasing production of pulses and oilseeds. The formulated strategies are to increase production through area expansion, productivity through HYV (High Yielding Variety) seeds, MSP (Minimum Support Price) channel, and through procurement^4.

Table 2B: India’s Horticulture Production (in Million Tons)⁵

Sr No	Category	2014-2015		Est. Prod. In 2020-2021
	Total Horticulture Production	281.0	(100.0)	326.6	(100.0)
1	Fruits	89.5	(31.9)	103.2	(31.6)
2	Vegetables	166.6	(59.3)	193.6	(59.3)
3	Aromatics and Medicinal	1.0	(0.4)	0.8	(0.2)
4	Flowers	2.1	(0.8)	2.8	(0.9)
5	Honey	0.1	(0.0)	0.1	(0.0)
6	Plantation Crops	15.6	(5.5)	15.8	(4.8)
7	Spices	6.1	(2.2)	10.2	(3.1)

Details may not add up to 100.0 because of rounding

(Figures in brackets are percentages of the total)

Source:

For 2014-15^5; For 2020-21⁶

Conversions used for producing the tables:

1 million Tons = 1,000,000 Tons

1 million Ton = 1000 Metric tons

1 Ton = 1000 kgs

In horticultural production, vegetables and fruits dominate, but honey, plantation crops, aromatics and medicinal plants, and flowers production, all with potential high value-added, and climate friendly, have stagnated, providing opportunities for crop production and consumption as well as export diversification.

India’s Options

It is urged that Indian agriculture sector stakeholders utilize a combination of avenues to pursue the modest-shift being proposed. Such a shift must integrate insights from research on not just sustainable production but also sustainable consumption.

The first avenue is to initiate a modest shift in crop and food selection is to accord greater policy focus and allocation of resources to dryland farming. It is encouraging that the UNGA (United Nations General assembly) on March 3, 2021 unanimously adopted a resolution tabled by India along with other countries including Bangladesh, Kenya and Nepal to mark 2023 as the ‘International Year of Millets’. Millet is typical crop in dryland farming.

The water consumption and climate impact of differing crops and of food consumption practices varies considerably. Thus, a shift in crop pattern and food consumption behavior could assist in managing water resources and help in better managing the adverse impact of climate change.

Hoekstra (2014) has noted that: “We know from land, energy and climate studies that the livestock sector plays a substantial role in deforestation, biodiversity loss and climate change. More recently it has become clear that livestock also significantly contributes to humanity’s water footprint, water pollution and water scarcity… As yet, this insight has not been taken forward in national water policies, which focus on ‘sustainable production’ rather than ‘sustainable consumption’. Most studies and practical efforts focus on increasing water-use efficiency in crop production (more crop per drop) and feed conversion efficiency in the livestock sector (more meat with less feed). Water use efficiency in the food system as a whole (more nutritional value per drop) remains a blind spot”⁷.

Three types of water use are green water (i.e., rainwater), blue water (i.e., irrigation water), and grey water (fresh water used to dilute pollution)⁸.

Water problems are often closely tied to the structure of the global economy. Many countries have significantly externalized their water footprint, importing water-intensive goods from elsewhere. This puts pressure on the water resources in the exporting regions, where too often mechanisms for more effective water governance and conservation is not robust⁹.

Figure 2 shows that 26% of the world’s greenhouse gas (GG) emissions come from food and agriculture production and 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals are for agriculture.

Figure 2: What are the environmental impacts of food and agriculture?

There is a significant ecological problem with the growing meatification of our diets. Beef production has by far the highest environmental impact measures by kg of Co2eq per kg of protein (see Figure 3). This is followed by pork, and chicken. At the other end, soyabeans, legumes, wheat and Rye, maize, and potatoes have the lowest environmental impact.

Figure 3: kg of CO₂e per kg of protein

At a more disaggregated level, (Figure 4) beef products again exhibit the largest carbon footprint, followed by other meat products. Some plant-based food such as dark chocolate, and coffee also have relatively higher carbon footprints. At the other end, various types of nuts, fruits, vegetables, maize, oat, wheat and Rye have much lower carbon footprints. 

Figure 4: Animal-based foods tend to have larger carbon footprint

Figure 5 exhibits that in general meat-based products use far greater amount of water per KG that plant-based products. Water used in Liters to Produce 1 kg ¹⁰

Lts:  Liters

Reuters agency reports that a six-country study suggests that People on meat-free diets had lower odds of contracting moderate to severe COVID-19. Plant-based diets were tied to a 73% lower risk of severe disease, researchers found in a survey of 2,884 healthcare providers who cared for COVID-19 patients¹¹. 

Making dryland farming more prevalent, and efficient, and encouraging consumption of dryland crops could help in making the above shift and in reducing Indian agriculture’s carbon and water impact. This is because, in India more than two-fifths of the total food production is being supported by drylands and thereby playing a critical role in nation's food security.

Crops grown in dryland farming regions are cultivated without the use of supplemental irrigation during the dry season. Simply put, dry farming crops is a method of producing crops during the dry season by using the moisture stored in the soil from the previous rainy season.

Major dry farming crops are millets such as jawar, bajra, ragi, oilseeds like mustard, rapeseed, and pulse crops like pigeon pea, gram and lentil. Almost 80% of maize and Jawar, 90 per cent of Bajra and approximately 95% of pulses and 75% of oilseeds are obtained from dryland agriculture. Many of the dryland crops are nutritious, thus helping to address India’s malnutrition challenge.

The Government’s priority is on increasing production of pulses and oilseeds. The formulated strategies are to increase production through area expansion, productivity through HYVs, MSP (Minimum Support Price) method and procurement.

It is reported that experience in the Mustard Mission of Rabi 2020-21 of only selected varieties having yield potential more than 20 quintals per hectare resulted in 13% increase in productivity and 14% in production from almost the same area¹².

Crop Diversification

Diversifying crops away from water intensive crops such as rice, without too much disruption to the rural livelihoods and economy, is another option with potential. This design for encouraging sch diversification must be compatible with appropriate incentives to producers and other stakeholders, while managing the political economy.

There are early signs that this option is being implemented by some states. Agriculture is a state subject. Therefore, initiatives must come from the states, and so should the accountability. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana have allocated budgets to diversify away from paddy cultivation; and Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and other states have budgets to diversify away from tobacco production¹³.

Odisha state is set to implement crop diversification on a pilot basis in 101 villages covering 12207 hectares, using the cluster approach. It will provide incentives to bring about such a diversification.

India is also mapping forest gap areas, exploring expansion of the land area for horticulture development, identification and rejuvenation of wetlands, diversion of floodwater and assessment of Bamboo resources for livelihood needs and for crop diversification.

India is also encouraging production of palm oil. The potential area of cultivation in India is estimated to be 1.93 million hectares, the actual coverage was only 0.35 million hectares up to October 2019. Several problems ail this industry which includes long gestation periods, smallholding of farmers with limited resources, price instability due to fluctuation in international crude palm oil (CPO) prices and competition with crops like Tea, Rubber and Areca nut. In August 2021, the government announced a new National Edible Oil Mission-Oil Palm (NMEO-OP) with an outlay of INR 110 billion¹⁴.

Greater focus on seaweed cultivation provides another opportunity for crop and export diversification. India has plans for largescale cultivation of 60 varieties of seaweeds or macroalgae, which have multiple commercial applications in medicine, fertilizer, animal feed and food, being a rich source of amino acid and several micronutrients.

India plans to increase seaweed production from the current level of about 20,000 tonnes, to 1.12 million tonnes by 2025.  The world seaweed production is currently valued at around USD 12 billion and is expected to reach USD 26 billion by 2026¹⁵

Using Ancient Knowledge in water Conservation and Management

India has a long tradition of area and context specific techniques to catch, hold and store water.  These traditional techniques, though less popular today, are still in use and efficient.  There is a strong case for greater policy focus and allocation of resources to this area.

Figure 6 provides a map of traditional water conservation techniques in different parts of India developed over centuries for location specific conditions.

Traditional Water Conservation Techniques

Source: The Better India on twitter @the betterindia, Accessed on June 2, 2021

Implications of the shift for international Trade

The proposed shift also has implications for India’s international trade. In 2020-21, India exported agricultural products worth USD 41.3 billion, and imported products worth USD 21.3 billion, for a total of USD 62.6 billion. Among the major items of exports were Rice (USD 8.8 billion), Marine Products (USD 6.0 billion), Spices (USD 4.0 billion), and Buffalo Meat (USD 3.2 billion). Among the main imports were Vegetable Oils (USD 11.1 billion), Fresh Fruits (USD 2.1 billion). And pulses (USD 1.6 billion).

India plans to double its agriculture exports from the current levels in the next several years, including providing incentives to manufacturing activities in food processing. The government is planning to encourage fortified rice to fight malnutrition, anemia. Such rice would have demand in other countries as well which want to address malnutrition. Thus, the proposed shift could help diversify India’s agricultural export basket and enhance India’s relevance to the rest of the world.

There is increasing consensus that India must build real capabilities across broad segments, including in agriculture, and aim to have broadly balanced external trade, with imports focusing on critical knowhow and capital goods.

India is also attempting to diversify markets for horticultural products and add value by branding.

Thus, in August 2021, Himachal Pradesh exported first consignment of five unique varieties of apples – Royal Delicious, Dark Baron Gala, Scarlet Spur, Red Velox & Golden Delicious to Bahrain. The apples are sourced from the farmers of Himachal Pradesh and exported by APEDA (The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority) registered enterprises.

In July, 2021, in a major initiative for boosting mango export potential from the eastern region especially to middle east countries, a consignment of Geographical Identification (GI) certified Fazil mango variety sourced from Malda district of West Bengal was exported to Bahrain¹⁶.

Need for Policy Relevant Empirical Research for the Proposed Shift

Agriculture is a state subject under India's Constitution, and those states with leadership desiring broad-based high, and sustainable growth, should take the responsibility to bring about a proposed shift in their state.

At a national level, it is suggested that the ICAR (Indian Council of agricultural Research), in collaboration with recognized Central Agricultural Universities (CAUs), Deemed Universities and those State Agricultural Universities, that are willing and capable of participating, and other organizations such as CGIAR (Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and  the National Council for Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Public Leadership (NCCSD), initiate empirical-evidence based technical, economic, commercial, and livelihood impact research to implement such a shift in result-oriented time-bound manner.

The researcher should also include those with expertise in application of digital and other emerging technologies in agriculture in the Indian context, and data analytics capabilities involving large data. If the above organizations have skills-gas in these areas, they should be filled. It is reported that the:

“Indian farm sector is seeing a widespread digitisation drive - catalysed by both government and start-ups…there is usage of AIoT (Agriculture Internet of Things), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Block Chain, Big Data, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing, Drones, Robots and automated farm machinery in India…another new initiative which has been undertaken during the pandemic is building of the first ever federated farmers database at the national level. The data pertaining to farmers, farm lands and related areas were in different silos in the Government of India. These technologies could help enhance productivity, ensure quality, optimise use of inputs, reduce costs of farming and increase the incomes for farms and farmers¹⁷.”

The proposed shift will require pro-active public policies in other areas as well, such as infrastructure, local climate centers, and food processing and other value- addition options; as well as behavioral change on the part of all stakeholders.

 

References

1. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement Accessed on 21 May 2021
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11. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/meat-free-diet-may-lower-severe-disease-risk-no-serious-problems-found-with-2021-06-09/ Accessed on 10 June 2021
12. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1723864 Accessed on 2 June 2021
13. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1605057 Accessed on 21 June 2021
14. https://swarajyamag.com/economy/story-of-swinging-fortunes-atmanirbharta-in-edible-oil Accessed on 18 august 2021
15. https://krishi.outlookindia.com/story/india-news-india-bets-big-on-superweed/372690 Accessed on 17 August 2021
16. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1745344 Accessed on 13 August 2021
17. https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/digital-agriculture-recent-initiatives-by-government-of-india-despite-the-ongoing-pandemic Accessed on 16 August 202