Post the thumping victories of BJP in both the 2014 & 2019 Lok Sabha elections, most folks had predicted handsome returns for BJP & NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP unlike the past two election cycles could not even get past the halfway majority mark of 272 and won only 240 seats (vs 282 in 2014 and 303 in 2019). All the NDA (pre-poll) allies put together were only able to win 292 seats. INC nearly doubled its tally from 52 to 99 seats while all the INDIA allies together won 233 seats. Others consisting of mostly regional parties not aligned with either bloc and independents won the remaining 17 seats.

BJP VOTE SHARE & SEATS

BJP’s vote share had continuously grown from 18.8% in 2009 to 37.4% in the 2019 election. However, this time around it vote share declined by 0.8% registering 36.4%. NDA vote % (BJP + Allies) decreased from 44.9% in 2019 to 43.8% (1.1% decrease).

Out of the 14 Prime Ministers (PM) that India has ever had Narendra Modi became just the Second PM ever (after Jawaharlal Nehru) to get re-elected after serving a complete two full 5 year terms

INC VOTE SHARE & SEATS

The vote share of INC (Indian National Congress) which was floundering badly at 19.5% in 2014 & 2019 received a small boost to 21.2% (+1.7% increase).

Around two dozen partners of INC in the INDI alliance pulled up the overall alliance numbers to a very significant 41.5% (which was just 2.3% below the corresponding NDA vote share of 43.8%)

Note: For the purpose of this analysis I have considered AITC (All India Trinamool Congress) to be part of this (opposition to BJP) INDI alliance even though their leaders have distanced themselves from INDI alliance as have some other parties.

BJP vs INC

The INC tally of 99 is not very top heavy unlike 2019 (where they had drawn a blank in 18/36 States and UT’s across India). In 2024 INC has seats from multiple regions/states. The biggest gains have been in Maharashtra (+12), Rajasthan (+8), Karnataka (+8), Haryana (+5), Telangana (+5) and Uttar Pradesh (+5)
Also by keeping their losses to no more than 1 seat in any State, they were able to vastly improve their 2024 to 99.

Now compare this to the BJP who had quite a few reversals in many states across Northern and Western India.

The loss of 29 seats in UP left the BJP with a massive hole, which they were not able to compensate for with gains from other states. Maharashtra with their alliances proved a massive dud which led to a loss of another 14 seats.  Big losses in Rajasthan (-10), Karnataka (-8), West Bengal (-6), Bihar (-5) and Haryana meant that they would not cross 272 majority mark on their own.

If not for the spectacular gains in Odisha (+12) where they also won, the Assembly and some gains in Andhra Pradesh (+3) & Telangana (+4) they could easily be looking at ~220 seats and possibly forced out of power.

In 2019, when the BJP and Congress had 191 head-to-head contests, the BJP won 175 contests for a whopping 92% strike rate against the Congress. In 2014, the BJP had a similar high strike rate of 86%. This time the strike rate fell to just 71% as the BJP could only win 154 of 216 seats head to head against INC (which won 62).

BJP has lost a good number of SC seats in 2024 (30 in 2024 vs 46 in 2019 and 40 in 2014) which should be a worry for the party. ST seats the losses were smaller in comparison (25 in 2014 vs 31 in 2019 and 27 in 2014)

 

NDA vs INDIA Alliance Vote% (by State)

Now, looking at data for the 2024 elections from an alliance perspective of NDA vs INDIA.

Note: (>50% vote share is denoted in black fill color)

INDIA bloc was able to breach the 50% in more States & UTs (vs 2019): Puducherry, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Lakshadweep, Kerala and Jammu & Kashmir. Tamil Nadu as we know DMK was the main driving force of the alliance and most of the credit here would go to DMK (& its smaller allies).

BJP has been able to get >50% vote share in 10 States/UTs on its own while NDA crosses >50% vote share in 2 more states once you add up the allies’ votes.

2024 vs 2019 Vote% (by State):

BJP lost vote share in almost all of the so called Hindi heartland states (including the ones where they had a clean sweep in seats like Himachal Pradesh/Uttarakhand/Delhi). INC on the other hand improving their vote share in many of these states was able to win a larger number of seats vs the BJP (including in several head to head contests)

OTHER VOTE SHARE & SEATS

In the previous several election cycles (barring 1991 and 2019) one has seen that the vote % of the big 2 national parties BJP+INC has remained fairly constant ~50% of the vote while the regional parties & independents have been getting the other 50% of the vote.

 

Looking at the combined seats won by BJP & INC they have been winning around ~300 to 325 seats in the previous election cycles (barring 2004 when both simultaneously underperformed and won only 283 seats together & 1991 when INC won 244 seats post-Rajiv Gandhi assassination which created a sympathy wave for INC). BJP & INC in the past 2 elections have upped their combined seat count to the 340-355 range.

Like a repeat of 2019, this time again the Others vote% has marginally dipped to 42%.  The number of seats won by others which used to be in the 215 to 260 range had dipped to below 200 last time around is now again above 200 at 204. Most of this can be attributed to a reduction in the BJP seats in this election cycle.

I plan to cover more on the national picture and some states in detail in the future as part of my deep dive into the 2024 LS election results.

 

P.S.: I want to specially thank Vivek Madani (@vivekpm) for helping to pull the data for all 542 constituencies from the ECI website.

 

Image source: Aam Chunav