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Mar 25, 2026
Shubhi Malhotra & Dr Adityanjee

Will the Newly Elected Government Cure Nepal of Its Persistent Problems?

Introduction It is true that elections are the backbone of any democratic government. But along with this reality comes another fact that elections have not always led to political stability or good government. Nepal, earlier, had toppled the monarchy by street revolt in 2007-2009 period to usher in democracy. Nepal has been facing this since the new constitution was passed in 2015. Since that time, Nepal has seen frequent elections and coalition governments, and instability at its peak. So, the question is: can elections alone fix Nepal's long-standing problems with its structures and institutions? In the last few years, Nepal has seen a pattern of broken mandates, weak coalition governments, and ongoing power struggles among political elites. Elections are supposed to renew democratic mandates, but they have often failed to fix the underlying problems of weak institutions, slow economic growth, and poor governance. As Nepal held another round of elections under a caretaker government after the Gen Z protest toppled the previous government, the bigger problem isn't just holding the elections and declaring the results; it's making sure that the results lead to real changes in how the government works. Fragmented Mandates and Coalition Instability Nepal's proportional representation system has made it easier for more than one party to participate, but it has also made parliaments very divided. As a result, complex coalition governments are formed, which often don't work out. In Nepal, political alliances are mainly based on decisions that help people gain power rather than on an ideological basis. Because of this, instability takes place, and governments often change, making it hard for policies to be made and implemented, and making the public lose trust in the government institutions. Political leaders are more worried about coalition management and political survival instead of governance, failing to meet public expectations. Nepal’s geriatric politicians, instead of taking responsibility for their own inaction and poor governance, always raised the bogeyman of the bigger neighbour to the south, holding India responsible for all their domestic ills. Governance Deficit and Institutional Weakness Nepal continues to face imminent challenges even after constitutional reforms have been introduced, and the country has transitioned to a supposedly federal structure. Corruption, lack of policy implementation, and inefficient governance have resulted in delayed economic opportunities and delivery of basic services to the public. When federalism was introduced in Nepal, it was intended to decentralise power and give empowerment to the government at the grassroots level. Lack of coordination, however, between the government at the local level and the national level has created loopholes and slowed the process of execution and implementation. Furthermore, the creation of provinces was flawed with a view to keeping the supremacy of one ethnic group of privileged people who were running the show, irrespective of the system of governance. Elections alone cannot solve these challenges without the strengthening of the government and administration. The Real Deal: Political Inefficiencies The political situation in Nepal is made worse by the country's economic problems, and vice versa. A significant portion of the country's GDP is dependent on remittances. Along with that, the country is facing a scheme of labour migration because of limited job opportunities, particularly among the youth. This economic stagnation has, in turn, contributed to growing political instability. Alternative political actors and independent candidates are rising, promising reforms and opportunities, as the public no longer believes in traditional political parties, perceiving them to be disconnected from the real problems. Additionally, Nepal faces a complex geopolitical environment. As it is situated between India and China, the country needs to maintain strategic autonomy, while at the same time seeking economic development and investment. For this, it is important for Nepal to carefully navigate its foreign policy. In the past, governments led by communist parties have played the China card against India. Even when Nepal was a monarchy, it frequently played the China card against India. However, the political instability complicates this balancing act. Frequent changes at the leadership level act as a deterrent in diplomatic continuity, resulting in delays in development initiatives and investment from other countries. Before the popular demonstrations by the Gen Z that toppled the last government, the influence of Western-supported NGOs and Christian missionary organisations was alleged to be the major destabilising factor. Results of the New Elections in 2026 Luckily for Nepal, the elections held on March 5th, 2026, gave a decisive verdict in favour of one party despite the proportional representation system. The newly created Rashtriya Swatantra Party under the leadership of party chair Rabi Lamichhane and Prime Ministerial candidate, 35-year-old rapper and structural engineer Balendra Shah has won a strong and decisive majority without the need for a coalition for the first time since 1999. Nearly 19 million people, including almost a million first-time voters, registered to take part in the ballot to elect 275 members of parliament. Out of 275 seats, 165 seats are chosen by the first past-the-post system, and another 110 are chosen by the proportional representation system. The election commission said 60% of registered voters took part in the poll. Balendra Shah defeated the former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in his own constituency. Everyone accepted the results that were free and fair. The RSP won a total of 182 seats, including 125 seats in the first past-the-post system in the 275-seat parliament, just two seats shy of a two-thirds super majority. The traditional Nepali Congress came in second with 38 seats, while the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN-UML) was third with 25. The pro-monarchist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party won only one seat. The Nepali Communist Party, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, won 17 seats. The results have shown the victory of candidates below the age of 40 years, suggesting a popular upsurge against Nepal’s geriatric ruling politicians. The electoral mandate is for a revolutionary youthful change under a democratic framework. Having discarded the monarchy in 2007-2009 years, the electoral results have shattered the myth that people of Nepal want to go back to a pro-monarchical system. In a symbolic message, PM Designate Balendra Shah is all set to take oath as the next Prime Minister of Nepal on the Hindu festival of Ram Navami (birth anniversary of revered Hindu God Rama), which falls on March 27. Post-Election Scenario The nation of Nepal has decisively elected a stable government for the first time since 1999. It will be important to watch how the newly created RSP governs the nation, tackles the problems of corruption, nepotism, governance deficit, unemployment, ethnic tensions, deficits in federalism and a host of other problems. The new leader of Nepal has serious challenges before him. His only previous governance experience is as the mayor of Kathmandu. During his tenure as mayor, he raised the issue of Greater Nepal claiming parts of India, especially Northern Bihar. If he is serious about succeeding as Prime Minister, he would have to be diplomatically prudent and not rake up issues that are irrelevant to the day-to-day lives of ordinary Nepalese. Conclusions Elections in Nepal reaffirm democratic participation, but they do not automatically resolve the structural challenges that continue to hinder governance and development. The future stability of the country will depend less on how often elections are held and more on how well political institutions can turn the results of elections into good governance. Nepal needs serious institutional reform and national self-introspection, and to own up to its own past deficiencies instead of pointing fingers towards India for all its ills. Nepal's true test of democracy is not just holding elections, but also creating institutions that can bring about stability, accountability, and economic growth. Elections alone are unlikely to fix Nepal's long-standing problems until these bigger changes are made. References Duffy, M. (2026, March 17). Opinion – Nepal’s electoral transformation. E-International Relations. https://www.e-ir.info/2026/03/17/opinion-nepals-electoral-transformation Generational shift: On the Nepal election, the results. (2026, March 9). The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/generational-shift-on-the-nepal-election-the-results/article70719548.ece Kaur, A. (2026, March 12). Nepal’s election marks a generational break—and a new strategic moment in the Himalayas. CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/nepals-election-marks-generational-break-and-new-strategic-moment-himalayas Mojumdar, A. (2026, March 14). Nepal’s 2026 election shock: What’s next for politics? Frontline. https://frontline.thehindu.com/world-affairs/nepal-election-2026-political-shift/article70743008.ece Sharma, G. (2026, March 13). Nepal ex-rapper's party wins election in landslide after Gen Z protests. reuters.com. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nepal-ex-rappers-party-wins-election-landslide-after-gen-z-protests-2026-03-13

Mar 25, 2026
Viren S Doshi

The War in West Asia: India is in the Eye of the Storm

Overview It may seem an exaggeration to state that India is in the eye of the storm that is raging in the Middle East, but a little scratching would make it amply clear. Let us recollect the chronological order of major events that have happened since September 2023. The Geopolitical Sabotage of the India - Middle East - Europe Economic Corridor How the October 7, 2023, Hamas Attack on Israel Served as a Proxy Strike by the Ayatollah Regime – Frontline of CCP Occupied China – to Stall India’s Strategic Bypass of the Strait of Hormuz to Damage Allied Economies… The present war in the Middle East / West Asia has a direct and deep connection with India. On September 9, 2023 – just one month before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 – leaders from India, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi to launch the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This ambitious multimodal project – encompassing sea-rail links, electricity grids, green hydrogen pipelines and digital connectivity – was designed to slash transit times between India and Europe by up to 40 per cent and logistics costs by around 30 per cent compared to the traditional Gulf to Suez Canal route. For India, which conducts over 12 per cent of its merchandise trade with the European Union (valued at approximately €124 billion in 2023), IMEC promised to unlock 5-8 per cent higher export valuations, potentially adding $21.85 billion annually in Indian exports while generating thousands of jobs and fostering regional integration. Critically, IMEC’s northern corridor explicitly relied on a Saudi Arabia-Israel rail link through Jordan, building on the momentum of the 2020 Abraham Accords and advanced Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks that were nearing a breakthrough in September 2023. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had publicly stated days earlier that normalisation with Israel was “getting closer every day.” The corridor’s underlying intention – to create an efficient, secure alternative trade artery – directly threatened to diminish reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil per day flowed in 2023-2025, accounting for about 20-25 percent of global seaborne oil trade and roughly 20 percent of total world petroleum liquids consumption. For India, which imports nearly 88 per cent of its crude oil (consuming around 5.5 million barrels per day) and sources over half from the Middle East, roughly 40-45 per cent of those imports historically transited the Strait of Hormuz prior to recent diversification efforts. Had the Hamas attack not occurred, IMEC would likely have accelerated Saudi-Israeli economic integration, drawn in further Gulf investment, and positioned India as a central node in a resilient east-west trade network independent of Chinese Communist-dominated routes. Instead, the October 7 assault – which killed over 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages – triggered the ongoing war, derailed normalisation, stalled IMEC implementation, and unleashed cascading disruptions through CCP-supported Ayatollah-backed proxies in the “Axis of Resistance.” The Ayatollah regime in Iran, acting as the frontline proxy of CCP-occupied China, provided the strategic depth: weapons, funding (estimated at hundreds of millions annually pre-2023), and operational coordination to Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The Strategic Calculus: Why IMEC Threatened CCP-Occupied China’s Dominance CCP-occupied China has poured billions into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to lock global trade into Beijing-centric infrastructure. IMEC was explicitly framed by Free World nations as a counterweight – a “cleaner, shorter, faster” alternative that would reduce Europe’s and India’s exposure to BRI debt traps and chokepoints. By integrating Saudi Arabia and Israel economically, IMEC would have normalised relations, stabilised the Gulf, and created a rail-sea hybrid route bypassing much of the Hormuz-Suez-Red Sea vulnerability. Pre-October 2023 projections estimated IMEC could handle 1.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container traffic annually initially, scaling to 3-6 million TEUs with upgrades, delivering $2.7-5.4 billion in yearly savings on Asia-Europe trade alone. The Ayatollah regime, heavily dependent on the CCP-occupied China (which buys roughly 90 per cent of Iran’s 1.6 million barrels per day of oil exports, generating over $50 billion annually in sanctions-evading revenue), served as the perfect disruptor. Tehran’s proxies ensured the war’s spillover: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea from late 2023 onward forced shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, spiking container freight rates 2.5-5 times higher than pre-crisis levels and insurance premiums nearly tenfold. This added roughly $1 million per round-trip voyage in fuel and delays, inflating costs for Indian exporters and importers while boosting oil price volatility. Global crude prices rose 5-10 percent in the immediate aftermath, with sustained risk premiums exacerbating India’s import bill. Quantifiable Damage to India and Allied Economies The war’s economic toll on India has been substantial. With oil comprising a major share of the import basket, even modest price spikes (as seen post-October 2023) widened the current account deficit and fuelled inflation. Red Sea disruptions – responsible for 12 per cent of global seaborne trade and 10 per cent of seaborne crude – directly hit Indian supply chains to Europe and beyond. Indian shippers faced elevated insurance and freight costs; exports to Israel (via Eilat port on the Red Sea) and broader European markets slowed. While IMEC itself remains in early planning, the conflict paused momentum, including bilateral agreements and feasibility studies that were advancing rapidly pre-attack. Broader allied losses include delayed EU-India trade growth (already expanding at double-digit rates in key sectors) and forgone Gulf-Israeli synergies. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification and Israel’s tech-export ambitions were sidelined. In contrast, the CCP-occupied China reaped clear benefits: sustained Hormuz dependency preserved its leverage over Gulf energy flows (China receives 37.7 percent of Strait traffic as the top destination), while BRI projects faced no rival corridor. Iranian oil revenues continued flowing to Beijing, funding further proxy destabilisation. The Ayatollah Regime as the CCP Occupied China’s Forward Operating Base The Ayatollah regime’s role is not incidental. Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tehran has funnelled advanced weaponry, training, and intelligence to Hamas (the October 7 perpetrators), Hezbollah, and the Houthis – the very actors who later targeted Red Sea shipping. CCP-occupied China enables this axis via dual-use technology transfers, financial networks for sanctions evasion, and diplomatic cover. Joint naval drills, drone component supplies, and oil-for-arms pipelines underscore the partnership. By igniting the war precisely when IMEC was poised to integrate Saudi Arabia and Israel, the attack achieved a classic proxy objective: economic warfare without direct fingerprints. In hindsight, the timing was no coincidence. The Hamas assault halted Saudi-Israeli normalisation “at the cusp,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it weeks earlier. Without the war, IMEC’s rail links through Saudi territory and Israeli ports would have been under construction, diversifying energy and trade routes away from Hormuz vulnerabilities and Chinese Communist influence. Instead, India and its partners face higher costs, delayed connectivity, and renewed strategic dependence on volatile maritime chokepoints. The present Middle East war is thus not merely a regional conflict; it is a calculated strike against India’s rise as a global economic power and the broader free-world effort to build resilient infrastructure. The true beneficiary – CCP occupied China, operating through its Ayatollah frontline – has succeeded in stalling a corridor that would have bypassed its strategic strangleholds, damaged Indian and allied economies, and reshaped global trade for the better. Conclusion It is time to convert this tragedy into a great opportunity. What is left with the 47-year-old, well-entrenched Ayatollah Regime is now only missiles, drones and probably mines. Have you heard of any other weapons used by this terrorist regime just after two weeks of this war? Its armed forces and the rest of its systems have been completely decimated in less than two weeks. Now, its missile arsenals and missile factories are pounded each moment. It has been reduced from a big military to just an “IRGC” outfit, a terrorist organisation. The only ransom that it has is the Strait of Hormuz. Reviving IMEC with renewed urgency remains essential to counter this sabotage and secure India’s and the Free World's economic future.