The southern coastal state of Kerala is clearly seeing a paradigm shift ever the Narendra Modi wave had engulfed the country in 2014.  Although the BJP lost a victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency back then by a whisker, it had become clear that the two-front politics of the state has gone forever and a third force has entered the scene. The last five years saw a steady rise in BJP’s vote share signalling the opening up for the party in Kerala. With the Sabarimala agitation and Modi factor looming high in the picture, 2019 presents the party with its best ever opportunity, but the million dollar question is: “Will they be able to grab it?”

Sabarimala – The Rise of United Spectrum of Hindu Votes

The most election issue in Kerala this time is none other than Sabarimala, the shrine . It took a clearly violent turn when the Left Front Government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan took blatantly arbitrary steps with no concern for the feelings and emotions of lakhs of devotees of Lord Ayyappa, under the guise of the judgement of the Hon’ble Supreme Court. The brutal persecution of the devotee-protestors and slapping of hundreds of cases on the leaders of Sangh Parivar who were at the forefront of the agitation has completely underlined the fact that the ruling CPI(M) has decided to suppress the rising anger among the Hindu community with highhanded approach and also in hope of acquiring the minority vote bank from the Congress led UDF (UPA) which accounts for about 46% in the state.

While the Congress and its allies paid lip service for the agitation, it was the leaders and cadre of the Sangh Parivar took stepped on the ground on the side of the devotees, to protect their rights. It is to be noted that most of the BJP leaders were slapped scores of criminal cases upon them by the government. The BJP candidate from Pathanamthitta, K. Surendran was reportedly slapped 242 criminal cases against him in an effort to ensure rejection of his nomination, forcing him to resubmit his nomination papers.

The devotee anger has undoubtedly resulted in the rise of a united Hindu vote-bank in many parts of Kerala, in the magnitude unheard so far evident from the huge support coming in for BJP candidates, especially in South and Central parts of the state. As of now, it seems that BJP is winning the Thiruvananthapuram seat handsomely through the former Mizoram Governor Shri Kummanam Rajasekharan while it is having a shot of three more constituencies, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur and Palakkad. Further giving the flip to BJP’s fortunes is the joining of the independent MLA P. C. George joining the NDA. His support may be valuable to the party especially in Pathanamthitta, providing some Christian votes to add to the saffron surge.

Sabarimala has indeed become the catalyst for Hindu unity in Kerala, but it should be seen how BJP has been able to use it to its advantage as well as on how minorities respond to it.

Modi factor – Balakot strikes – Nationalist Fervour among the Middle Class

IAF’s Balakot strikes which destroyed the terror camps deep inside Pakistan, in response to Pulwama attack was well-received, but its electoral effect was much less, limited mainly to the Hindu community. Further, the blatant pro-Pak remarks by many of the supporters of the Left as well as the Congress and the Muslim League has led to the sparking of nationalist fervour in a small number of people, gaining new converts for the BJP in the middle class (the phenomena I witnessed in my own family).

The effect of Modi factor may be limited when considered to other states, the main traits of it like strong and decisive leadership, the welfare schemes of the Central Government has led to a churning among the majority community.  How far it has influenced the voters will be clear only on the polling day.

The Sangh Parivar Machinery – Helping to cover the last mile

Kerala which always had a significant presence of the RSS cadre was indeed an out of bounds territory for the BJP. But now it seems that the RSS is micromanaging the BJP election campaign in various constituencies, especially in Thiruvanathapuram where it has considerable presence. What is clearly visible on the ground is that the Sangh Parivar is pulling all stops for scripting BJP victory. With the Prime Minister himself campaigning in Thiruvanathapuram itself shows how the RSS invested in this region. The candidate list has a firm RSS influence all around which ensured that BJP has fielded the best candidates available for each seat.

The X- factors. (cross voting by the Left – possible minority consolidation)

With all these positive elements working for the BJP on the ground, the party has to overcome two almost certain obstacles to cruise to victory – Minority Consolidation and Cross-Voting by the Left Front. All the seats where BJP has chances of victory are bound to see a polarization with the minorities voting in favour of the strongest candidate against the BJP. It ought to be noted that it was this polarization which cost BJP in Thiruvanathapuram back in 2014. Further, it also fears cross voting by the left cadre who is hell-bent on preventing BJP from sending its first representative to the Parliament from Kerala. According to information from the ground, BJP seems to have considered these factors and strategies to overcome it.

Anyway, BJP seems set to script history in Kerala. The only things that stand between them and victory are the communal polarization and cross-voting. Whatever be the picture on 23^rd May, it is undoubtedly a fact that Nationalist forces have now clearly got a foothold in Kerala.