Part 1 of this piece focused on the overall numbers and the national picture, Part 2 focuses on the state by state breakup and how BJP has an edge there.

CLASSIFICATION OF BJP CONTESTS

India’s polity even though being a duopoly between BJP & INC has a vast space occupied by a whole host of smaller regional parties. These parties among themselves usually get around half the national vote share & around 220-240 seats (2004 was an outlier where both BJP & INC performed poor simultaneously & these regional parties/others captured 260 seats). These regional parties either being in an alliance or fighting elections by themselves play a decisive role in determining the winner in numerous constituencies across the nation. I will classify the contests among the 36 states + union territories of India from BJP’s point of view into 4 separate groups: 1) Direct BJP vs INC heads up contest 2) Direct BJP vs INC with alliance partners heads up contest 3) Multiparty contests (with or without BJP & INC) 4) “Greenfield States” for BJP (i.e. States where BJP won 0 seats in 2014).

1. Direct BJP vs INC Contests:

One can find countless articles written on how BJP won over 90+% of seats in the Hindi heartland to win a majority in parliament & that such an event was a fluke which is hard to replicate. The point on winning 90% of the seats in the Hindi heartland is true but one has look closer to find that what is often overlooked is the fact that most of the places where the BJP swept were primarily direct BJP vs INC fights barring Uttar Pradesh & Jharkhand (multi-party contests). The bigger point here is that BJP won well over 90% of contests in direct BJP vs INC fights. These 108 seats could very well decide if BJP retains power or not. INC can stitch up all the “grand alliances” it wants in the other states that they want but if they stumble as badly as they did in 2014 (4/108 wins) it won’t be able to prevent the BJP from retaining power.

Gujarat

In Gujarat the home state of PM Narendra Modi BJP won most of the seats by huge margins. During the 2017 assembly elections INC did close the gap on BJP to 7%. A point missed by many & brought out by a survey was that 10% of the voters voting for INC had done so due to anger at the local BJP leadership & would switch their vote to Modi come 2019. There would also be a reluctance to vote against the “son of the soil” despite displeasure with the state government. Since only 2 seats were won by BJP < 10% margin most of the seats would be safe for BJP: BJP 24 INC 2

Rajasthan

Massive incumbency seems to be brewing against incumbent BJP CM Vasundhara Raje with the distinct possibility of losing the assembly elections later this year. Two seats Ajmer& Alwar which were won by approx. 15 & 25% margin in 2014 during the by-polls earlier this year were lost due to huge swings towards INC. As per some reports anger is mostly towards Raje & not PM Modi but this discontent can easily spill over to the Lok Sabha elections. Due to the massive anti-incumbency only seats with 20% margin would be safe for BJP. BJP 16 INC 9

Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh

Despite being in power for 3 terms CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan & Raman Singh remains quite popular. INC is trying to make great efforts to win the assembly elections later this year to get some wind in their back before 2019. Excluding the seats won by <10% as they would be most prone to being flipped over by INC

MP: BJP 22 INC 7       CHA: BJP 7 INC 4

OTHER HEAD TO HEAD CONTEST STATES
For smaller states & UT’s like Andaman, Chandigarh, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Himachal Pradesh& Uttrakhand in absence of detailed info I am eliminating from the BJP tally the seats which were won by less than 10% margin. For Arunachal Pradesh where BJP is in power after assimilating the INC rebels they should be looking to win both of the seats as part of its expansion plan in the North East.  OTHER STATES: BJP 13 INC 4

2. Direct BJP vs INC with alliance partner Contests:

Bihar

Bihar is a unique case where the alliances have changed more than once since 2014. BJP in 2014 fought the elections with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP (Lok Janshakti Party) & smaller ally RLSP (Rashtriya Lok Samta Party).  INC teamed up with Lalu Yadav’s RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) while Nitish Kumar fought alone. In the three way contest BJP won 22 seats & its allies won 9 other seats. Nitish then joined hands with his arch enemy Lalu Yadav in 2015 to win a landslide victory in the assembly elections but the new found bonhomie lasted less than two years & last year Nitish returned to the NDA fold. The combination of BJP + JD(U) + LJP looks strong on paper & should win easily in 2019. The bigger question is distribution of the 40 seats in Bihar among the various NDA partners. BJP should be able to win similar no. of seats as last time: BJP 22

Assam

BJP fought alone in 2014 winning 7 of the 14 seats in Assam. During the 2016 assembly elections they fought in an alliance with allies AGP (Asom Gana Parishad) & BDF (Bodoland People’s Front) & won over 2/3 of all assembly seats. The opposition to this is alliance is by two other parties INC & AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front). With Rahul Gandhi on a mission to project INC as a “soft Hindutva” party it would seem unlikely that they team up with the minority based AIDUF to counter the NDA alliance for the fear of counter Hindu mobilization. NDA should pick up few seats which would be gained by BJP & its allies: BJP 8

3. Multi Party Contests:

Andhra Pradesh

Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP (Telugu Desam Party) fought in an alliance with BJP in 2014 winning the assembly election & 17/25 Lok Sabha seats (TDP 15 BJP 2). Last month TDP exited the NDA alliance claiming that central government was not providing special status for state & not enough funds for development. BJP bereft of partners is not a major player in state & would expect lose both its current seats: BJP 0

Delhi

Arvind Kejriwal & his AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) have lost the magic of 2014-15 time period but nonetheless remain a significant player in Delhi. The INC left for dead after the debacles during the same time period has been able to again become a respectable player though still being the weakest among all three. This makes Delhi one of the more fascinating multi party contest for 2019. BJP which won all 7 seats in 2014 is currently facing massive anger due to the recent sealing drive & could lose a few seats: BJP 3

Jammu & Kashmir

BJP won couple of seats in the Jammu area & one in Ladakh. The Ladakh seat which was won by a razor thin margin of just 36 votes would under risk of slipping away from BJP: BJP 2

Karnataka

Karnataka is going to the polls for assembly elections next month & picture will become clear after next month. I am for now keeping the 2014 numbers for BJP the same until more accurate information is gained in a month’s time: BJP 17

Maharashtra

BJP & Shiv Sena in an alliance in 2014 swept Maharashtra winning 42/48 Lok Sabha seats (BJP 23 SS 18). They benefited from an anti-incumbency wave against then ruling INC-NCP & both the alliance partners fighting separately. The BJP & Shiv Sena in late 2014 fought separately the assembly elections but formed a coalition government. However from time to time differences have cropped up between both the partners with Shiv Sena periodically threatening to walk out of the alliance. In a reversal of sorts from 2014 Shiv Sena has indicated to go alone for the 2019 polls while INC & NCP have expressed desire to fight in an alliance. BJP controls 32% of the vote share while SS has around 20%. The combined vote share of INC (~18%) +INC (~17%) at 35% would pose a serious threat to the BJP’s seats won by <15% (due to the ~15% vote transference from the other partner). Excluding seats won by <15% the BJP tally would be 19. This number 19/48 (i.e. 40% of all seats) is roughly in line with the results of just concluded municipal polls where BJP won 49/115 seats. BJP 19

Odisha

Odisha has been a Naveen Patnaik stronghold since 2000 when he became CM of the state. His party BJD (Biju Janata Dal) was in an alliance with BJP till 2009 when they parted ways. More recently the INC has collapsed in the state paving the way for BJP to capture the space of the primary opposition party. There is a build of anti-incumbency against BJP but most experts believe that it is not yet sufficient to topple him yet. However this is one of the states that BJP is looking to make serious inroads to make up for losses elsewhere. Amitabh Tiwari in his recent piece on Odisha has extrapolated results from recent municipal polls to assembly seats giving the BJP just under 40% of the seats. I am extrapolating this a bit further to give BJP 8 seats which wouldn’t be shocking given the scale of collapse of INC in the state. BJP: 8

Punjab

This is a state where the BJP is a junior partner to the Akali Dal. They did very poorly both in last years’ assembly election when they were voted out of power & also in the 2014 general elections. With local anti-incumbency no longer an issue & infighting within the local AAP leaders (who won 4 seats here in 2014) BJP this time around can pick an additional seat in Punjab BJP: 3

Tamil Nadu

The contest here is wide open with multiple parties/factions in the fray. You have 3 factions of AIADMK: EPS, OPS & TTV Dinakaran, DMK, Rajnikanth & Kamal Hassan’s new political outfits, INC, BJP & not to forget smaller parties like MDMK & PMK. There are infinite possible alliances that could possibly formed for 2019 elections & right now it  is just too hard to get any sense of what will happen in the next election .BJP can retain the Kanyakumari seat which it won by a handsome margin in 2014.  BJP: 1

Telangana

BJP in Telangana is a very small player where the politics is dominated by TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samiti) & INC. Without any formal alliance partner it would hard for BJP to do much except hope to retain the Secunderabad seat which it won by a huge 25% margin in 2014.  BJP: 1

Uttar Pradesh

BJP won in a landslide here in 2014 capturing 71 seats (+2 for allies) out of 80 total seats. The 40% vote share it got decimated the 3 way opposition of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) & INC. This success was repeated in the 2017 assembly elections where even in a three way contest BJP vs BSP vs (INC+SP) BJP again won a landslide victory. SP & BSP after these back to back drubbings have realized that their approximate 20% vote shares are toothless against the 40% vote share of BJP. Hence they have decided to fight in an alliance next year. This SP+BSP alliance shall prove to be a formidable challenger to the BJP in the next election. This 20% increase in vote share of SP & BSP would in theory put all seats won by <20% under potential threat of being flipped. As I explained earlier last month due to chemistry issues between the voter bases of both these parties I don’t foresee a full vote transference between them. This would give some more breathing room to the BJP in UP. Taking away all seats won by BJP < 15% margin would leave it with only 41 seats a significant climb down from the 71 it won just 5 years ago. BJP: 41

West Bengal

After ending the 34 year rule of Left CPI (M) Mamata Banerjee’s TMC (Trinamool Congress Party) has consolidated its grip over West Bengal. The CPI (M) & INC have been on a slow terminal decline creating an opportunity for BJP to become the main opposition party in the state. This is another of BJP’s expansion drive states to increase their pan India presence.  BJP with its increasing presence here should be able to atleast increase its tally from 2 to 5 seats. The results of the upcoming Bengal panchayat should provide a better picture of the situation on the groud. BJP: 5

Jharkhand & Haryana

Both have tri party contests between BJP vs INC vs smaller regional party. Jharkhand: JMM (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha) & Haryana: INLD (Indian National Lok Dal). I haven’t come across lot of reporting from the ground for these two states & am decreasing the BJP tally with seats won by less than 10% margin due to effect of anti-incumbency. JHARKHAND: BJP 7    HARYANA: BJP 6

 
4. Greenfield Territories

These are states where couldn’t open their account in 2014 & is part of their expansion plans in 2019.

North East States: (Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram Nagaland, Sikkim & Tripura)

BJP which won 8/25 seats in the North East in 2014 is now in power with alliance partners or by itself in 7 of 8 north eastern states. BJP is looking to make some serious gains in the North East in 2019. Since some of the seats will have to be given up to the NDA alliance partners so all the gains here will be for be just for the BJP.

MANIPUR: BJP 1   MEGHALAYA: BJP 0   MIZORAM: BJP 0   NAGALAND: BJP 1   SIKKIM: BJP 0   TRIPURA: BJP 2

Kerala

Kerala has seen a yo-yo pattern between CPI (M) & INC led alliances in assembly elections. BJP which had very little presence here just a few years ago in the 2014 election captured around 10% of the vote while barely missing out on opening their account: Thiruvananthapuram was lost by the BJP to INC’s Shashi Tharoor by less than 2%. The BJP’s vote share subsequently increased to 15% in the 2016 assembly elections where they won their first ever assembly seat. This continuous rise should allow capturing of one Lok Sabha seat in 2019 BJP: 1

Lakshadweep & Pondicherry

With no presence here there is no scope for picking up seats in these two union territories: LAKSHADWEEP: BJP 0   PONDICHERRY: BJP 0

FINAL TALLY

The analysis above has taken into account perfect vote transference from the winner to the runner up candidate. This is where an opposition alliance matters since parties can transfer their votes to a single opposition candidate against the BJP & it allies. This can do much more damage to the BJP chances than anything else. Since 3 out every 4 BJP candidates (210) won with a big 10+% margin this is where the level of vote consolidation & transference among the various opposition parties has to be high to make a difference. Some of the BJP voters from 2014 who now are dissatisfied with the BJP & chose to sit out in 2019 vs choosing to vote for an opposition candidate give the incumbent BJP an extra cushion. This is where I believe the opposition has to put forward a strong narrative to win over these disgruntled voters as otherwise their job of toppling the BJP candidates many of which who won by big margins becomes twice as hard. Having disillusioned voters is one thing but if they abstain from voting & don’t turn out for the opposition it doesn’t help the opposition’s cause to unseat BJP from power unless the % of BJP voters who abstain is a very high number.

Half the battle for the next election is in the 108 direct BJP vs INC match ups. Compared to 2014 INC as per current estimates INC is forecasted to do much better (BJP 86 INC 24 vs BJP 104 INC 4 in 2014) but not enough to create a big enough dent in the BJP’s overall tally. INC & BJP over the past few elections have combined to win around 300 to 320 seats. To push BJP below the physiological mark of 200 seats to wreck its chance of forming the next government INC has to break into the triple digits & get to the 100-120 range. A failure to keep BJP below the 220 range will result in INC conceding the advantage to the BJP. INC also has to avoid the situation where it not only picks up new seats but also retains all of its existing seats. During the last elections 20/44 seats were won by <5% margin & another 10 by <10% margin which would certainly be targeted by the BJP like they did in the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections. This election saw the INC pick up a significant number of BJP seats but 4-5 of its big leaders who were incumbent MLA’s lost thus lessening the damage for BJP in the final count.

The final BJP tally as per the analysis above would yield BJP 225 seats (-57 seats vs 2014) which is a loss of 20% seats vs last time around. This should still keep BJP in pole position to form the next government with the help of allies. There is always the possibility that disaffected allies like Shiv Sena & TDP return to the fold & either join the government or provide outside support. This 225 number does keep BJP just above the 210-220 threshold below which finding enough alliance partners would become increasingly difficult.

There are bound to be numerous twists and turns over the next one year with many surprises & shocks for both sides along the way. This is just an initial snapshot of the situation today which as we all very well know is always highly  fluid in India politics & can change at the drop of a hat. As we get more results for local & assembly elections plus ground reports I will keep updating the forecast accordingly & strive to share these on a regular basis.

Note: I wanted to extend my thanks to Amitabh Tiwari for answering my questions & exchanging thoughts on the 2019 elections.