Over the last year, oil-consuming countries have become increasingly gripped by crude's resurgence: from $50 to $75 to now more than $85. It was when Vladimir Putin, one of the leaders of OPEC+, warned that $100 a barrel was a distinct possibility that alarm bells started ringing.

As inflation quickens and some central banks hike rates earlier than expected, the United States, India, Japan, and other consuming countries are putting the strongest diplomatic pressure on the cartel in years.

Multiple diplomats and industry insiders involved in the contacts told that an intense campaign is underway to convince OPEC+ to speed up its output increases behind closed doors. On Nov. 4, the cartel will meet virtually to discuss policy. Currently, the cartel is boosting output by 400,000 barrels a day.

In addition to recent public appeals, the private efforts are now being stepped up. OPEC+ has been called on by the Biden administration to pump more oil for weeks as the price of gasoline has reached a 7-year high. The fourth-largest oil consumer in the world, Japan, took the rare step of adding its voice to those calls in late October.

Additionally, India, the third-largest consumer, has requested more crude oil. The Chinese government has been quiet in public, but is equally outspoken in private, diplomats said.

“We found ourselves in an energy crisis,” Amos Hochstein, the top U.S. energy diplomat, said this week, reflecting a view broadly held view by big oil consuming nations. “Producers should ensure that oil markets and gas markets are balanced.”

U.S., Japanese and Indian officials have spoken privately among themselves and also reached out to other big consumers and oil-producing countries. The calls started around three weeks ago, but have intensified in recent days after prices passed $85 a barrel.

The Japanese “government is currently asking oil-producing countries to increase production in the Middle East,” according to Tsutomu Sugimori, chairman of the Petroleum Association of Japan. “As the petroleum industry, we hope oil-producing countries, including OPEC, will take appropriate steps so as not to hinder a full-fledged recovery of the world’s economy.”

Until now, Saudi Arabia and others have refused to speed up, arguing that the monthly addition of 400,000 barrels a day is sufficient to quench the appetite for oil in a global economy still struggling after the pandemic.

“We are not yet out of the woods,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in an interview last week. “We need to be careful. The crisis is contained but is not necessarily over.”

Others within the OPEC+, an alliance of countries which represents nearly two-thirds of world oil supplies, echoed the prince's comments both in private and publicly. Parviz Shahbazov, Azerbaijan's energy minister, said there wasn't any point to rushing faster output increases.

"We have agreed on a very wise and smart program for the months to come," he said.

Saudi Arabia will probably get its way if it pushes to stick with a 400,000 barrel-a-day hike next. For many OPEC+ officials they’re being made a scapegoat for a crisis they didn’t create. The problem, they argue, is not oil but soaring natural gas and coal prices, which in turn have boosted electricity prices. Even if the cartel was to go faster, that wouldn’t resolve those shortages, they said.

Image source- Bloombergquint