- Apr 02, 2025
- YagnaSri
Featured Articles
One Nation One Election Might be Electorally Counterproductive for BJP
This is in continuation of my initial article on the Sri Ramnath Kovid committee recommendations (https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/seminal-recommendations-of-ramnath-kovind-led-committee-on-one-nation-one-poll) Since the last Lok Sabha elections, which yielded unexpected results, the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, has revealed itself to be a deeply divisive political force, alarmingly pro-Jihadi, and openly antagonistic towards Sanatana Dharma. Since that time, it has become strikingly evident that the nation's principal opposition party, together with its numerous regional affiliates, is demonstrably intent on undermining the nation's stability through the advocacy of radical leftist economic doctrines, such as wealth redistribution and the promotion of policies openly antagonistic toward the Hindu population. Rahul Gandhi's endorsement of caste divisiveness is patently illegal and unconstitutional. A closer examination of the fundamental concept underlying the "One Nation One Election" initiative is necessary to properly analyse the complex interplay of political and national security concerns stemming from recent events. We will likely encounter many unforeseen challenges and difficulties that we must address in the coming days. As Bharat's economic strength expands with its technological and military capabilities, the determination of external forces to sabotage Bharat's progress and maintain their global dominance will only increase. In terms of purchasing power parity, by 2022, our economy had already reached approximately 40% of the size of the United States economy. It also boasted the highest growth rate among all major global economies. It is inconceivable that the pressures of international forces will permit the continuation of this situation. Given Bharat's robust nuclear capabilities, encompassing a robust nuclear trident, any direct kinetic military action is strategically unfeasible and too dangerous to undertake. But they can destabilise Bharat from within with their paid brown sahibs. Similar events have unfolded, and a much larger-scale manifestation is projected to follow. In a clear display of allegiance, Rahul Gandhi and his allies have publicly sided with these global interests. There is also a significant weakness in the political presence of the BJP. The BJP's current political dominance is confined mainly to India's vast western, central, and northern Gangetic plains. In the Eastern states, barring recently won Odisha, and in the South, they are significantly weaker. Even in the areas where the party is quite strong, there is a significant Muslim population in many seats. There are also serious and long-entrenched caste divisions, making it hard for the BJP to create a united Hindu vote bank a challenging task. Due to these, the BJP needs to have a strike rate of 90% in the seats, which it can practically win to attain a majority of its own. That is what it essentially did in 2014 and 2019. In 2024, it failed mainly in UP and Maharashtra very severely. It could not get a 90% strike rate in other small states like Haryana. As already stated, the meticulously crafted strategy employed by internal and external adversaries of Bharat in the 2024 elections has, to a considerable degree, successfully dismantled the BJP, particularly within the pivotal states of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, achieving a key objective. Consequently, the BJP saw increased support in various states, including Telangana and Odisha, but fell short of anticipated success in key states such as Maharashtra and UP. The party could not secure a majority in the Lok Sabha. With almost all opposition parties bent on destroying Bharat joined forces, any loss of power at the national level is no longer an option and will result in significant and irreversible damage to the Bharatiya civilisation itself. One can argue that the proposed increase in seats after the census and delimitation may increase the seats in many areas where the BJP is presently strong. While it may be true, as already discussed, there is also a significant Muslim population and caste divisions in the same areas. So, unless proper gerrymandering is done in these areas, the BJP's current weaknesses will persist. It is impossible to do so, as the delimitation work will be carried out by a commission headed by a Judge. In light of the above, if ONOE is implemented without any thought to ensure the BJP continues to be in power, it may lead to significant problems for the BJP. ONOE, with Assembly and Parliament elections held simultaneously, will present a massive and single target to the Breaking India forces. The experience of 2024 has shown how they managed to narrowly stop the BJP's return to power. Secondly, it was repeatedly observed that the BJP will get its best results when the elections are held based on national-level issues and at the national level. If the fight is divided state-wise, the INC and the various regional parties allied with it will significantly threaten the BJP's efforts to win the majority in the Lok Sabha. The results of 2004, wherein the BJP lost most surprisingly, are a prominent example of this. In ONOE, it will be harder for voters now to distinguish between national elections and state-level issues. The chances of elections being fought on state-level problems are higher. As a national party, the BJP and its workers naturally highlight national matters more. As State elections indicate, voters looking for solutions to state-level issues most of the time are not in favour of voting for the BJP. A tight fight will present a significant disadvantage to the BJP. Thirdly, Articles 355 and 356 are critical to ensure national security and law and order. What will be the fate of these two articles if ONOE is implemented? While the BJP does not favour using these articles, they are very much constitutional and even the Supreme Court, in Bommai's judgment, did not hold them unconstitutional. So, a detailed discussion on this issue is necessary if ONOE is to be implemented. Fourthly, the present anti-defection law today may also present a significant issue after ONOE. As suggested, a mandatory constructive no-confidence motion will ensure that there is no need to dissolve the house to seek fresh elections for the remaining period. However, the provisions of the anti-defection law create disqualifications for legislators, fresh polls, etc. It will also result in litigations, etc, and profound political uncertainty. The anti-defection law has already become facetious, with speakers acting in a blatant partisan manner. As such, in an ONOE situation with a mandatory constructive no-confidence motion, removing the entire corpus of anti-defection laws would be better. Legislators should be free to elect their leaders in the House without outside party bosses threatening them with disqualification. Fifthly, any defeat in an ONOE may be catastrophic, as the chances of the BJP losing both in the states and the Lok Sabha simultaneously are much higher. The system will present the BJP with a defence in depth, and it can learn and adapt and win state assembly and Lok Sabha seats. The most recent examples are the results of the recent Haryana, Maharashtra, and Telangana elections for the assemblies and the Lok Sabha. In any case, the main issue initiated by a proposal for ONOE is the problems of state assembly elections that are going on at different intervals. The proposed solution is to bring all the State assembly elections at once and conduct the Lok Sabha elections simultaneously. It is logical to combine both on the same day, except to reduce the costs, and it would also be administratively easier. However, clubbing of all the assembly and Lok Sabha elections will result in various issues, as mentioned above. One possible solution is to conduct all assembly elections at once and conduct Lok Sabha elections after some time, say, six months or a year. While this will result in additional costs requiring more administrative work, it will result in more clarity in election campaigns and enable people to examine and vote on the issue more informedly. It will also help the BJP to get a majority in the Lok Sabha more easily. Recent Telangana elections show how people will vote in state and national elections, and the BJP benefited greatly. One of the significant problems in passing any ONOE constitutional amendments is the serious opposition from regional parties, which do not have both the assembly and parliament elections simultaneously. However, they may not oppose it much if there is a gap of six months or a year between the two. They may even help pass the constitutional amendments, which require a two-thirds majority.- Apr 02, 2025
- B S Murthy