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May 24, 2025
Ramaharitha Pusarla

Beneath the Facade of Trump's Peace Making

Responding to Trump’s claims of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, in a rather provocative interview with Dutch Broadcaster NOS, EAM Jaishankar clarified, “The ceasefire was negotiated directly between India and Pakistan….We made one thing very clear to everybody who spoke to us, not just the United States, but to everyone, saying if the Pakistanis want to stop fighting, they need to tell us. We need to hear it from them. Their general has to call up our general and say this. And that is what happened”. He pointedly noted, “The US was in the United States”. Jaishankar’s statement is among the numerous clarifications and denials the government of India has issued as President Trump continued to double down on the India-Pakistan ceasefire. Trump, being Trump, as evident from his first term, is a compulsive credit hogger. He continues to strut around pompously, exaggerating his role in the India-Pakistan ceasefire even as India has been rebutting his claims both politically and diplomatically. Trump’s ceasefire statement on social media ahead of the Indian government’s formal announcement in the thick of the conflict baffled the political dispensation and Indians alike. While the Indian military inflicted a mighty blow on the Pakistani terrorist ecosystem, Trump’s hubristic claims of the American role and mediation have despoiled the sheen of Operation Sindoor’s huge success. India’s opportunistic opposition on a prowl to pounce on the political regime got a big stick to belittle the military’s big bang delivered to Pakistan. Having invested immense energies and tact to position himself as a peacemaker, Trump’s nugatory peace overtures to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un during his first term ended up as a damp squib. During his campaign, Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking charge. Four months into office, Trump declared, “This isn't my war. We got ourselves entangled in something we shouldn't have been involved in”. Terming the call with President Trump on May 21st, ‘excellent’, Putin agreed to ceasefire negotiations, but offered no timeline or verifiable pullback. In fact, Russian forces launched 100 drones on Ukraine the same day. While Trump omitted the issue of sanctions, Russia continued to persist with its hardline claims, made no compromises, but welcomed US efforts. Trump pushed the idea of increased economic cooperation between the US and Russia ahead of bilateral talks in Riyadh in March. Responding to Trump’s reset, Russia included investment manager Kirill Dmitriev in the delegation. The mineral deal with Ukraine has been the essential precondition for Trump for America’s continued support. Trump’s big proclamations on China ended as a dud missile due to Xi Jinping’s defiance. By imposing huge retaliatory tariffs, Xi forced America to blink first, from whopping 245% tariffs on some goods, countries have now settled on 30% tariffs. Trump vowed to bring about peace in the Middle East and end the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. His team’s short-lived ceasefire ended up in a big failure, with Israel resuming attacks on Gaza after Hamas backed down on hostage release. The conflict continues to simmer in the Middle East. After his ‘peacemaker’ stance took a hit, he turned his attention away from Israel. Trump’s fetish for personal diplomacy and face-to-face interactions stems not from his aversion to conflicts but from his quest for deal-making steered by transactionalism. Unfortunately, his penchant for seeking a business opportunity is steadily overpowering his discretion in the complex geopolitical engagements. Trump, who signed a flurry of executive orders to combat anti-semitism, suddenly veered the track, voicing concerns over starvation in Gaza on the final day of his Gulf tour. Lest people miss the context, the $400 million Qatari jet made all the difference. Now, Trump is aggressively pushing for nuclear talks with Iran, much to the discomfort of Netanyahu, started direct negotiations with Hamas for American hostage release, lifted sanctions on Syria and recently bargained a temporary peace with Yemeni Houthis. Trump is keen that the world acknowledge his position as the leader of a superpower. He seeks an opportunity in every conflict to project America’s role. This was clearly evident in his repeated bluster about playing a role as mediator in the India-Pakistan conflict. Claiming that India has been fighting for 1000/ 1500 years with Pakistan he bragged about using the trade lever to stop the conflict, which was on the verge of going nuclear. In the process, he equated India and Pakistan all for the sake of optics. Trump’s equivocation of terror target, India, with terror perpetrator, Pakistan, has touched a raw nerve as it reminded New Delhi of the old entanglements. Trump’s repeated claims exposed his lack of understanding and his double-speak. In 2017, Trump vowed to “eradicate radical Islamic terrorism”, urged Muslim nations to “drive out terrorists”, and even barred citizens and refugees from seven Muslim countries over concerns of “terrorism”. Days into this second term, Trump approved the extradition of 26/11 accused Tahawwur Rana. The India-US Joint statement of February 13, 2025, stated, “recognising a shared desire to bring to justice those who would harm our citizens, the US announced that the extradition to India of Tahawwur Rana has been approved”. Days after the Pahalgam attacks, Trump announced US support for India in the fight against terrorism. In response to India’s strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan, Trump reacted, “It’s a shame. We just heard about it, they have been fighting for a long time… I just hope it just ends quickly”. Four days later, Trump posted on Truth Social, “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL and IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence”. In 2019, post Article-370 abrogation, on the sidelines of the G7 Summit, PM Modi categorically rejected “any scope of third-party mediation between India and Pakistan”. Trump’s repeated reiterations of false claims to hog in limelight were a rude shock. It betrayed India’s trust. India has refused to validate Trump’s claims on the ceasefire of Operation Sindoor, which is temporarily halted but not terminated. India is now doubling down on Pakistan by sending several multi-party delegations to various countries. Trump’s favourable statements about Pakistan, which are getting more repetitive, “Pakistan has got some excellent people, a really great leader,” have forced people to dig below the surface for answers. This eventually turned attention to a crypto deal signed between the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC), set up a month ago, with World Liberty Foundation (WLF), a cryptocurrency firm. Trump’s family- his two sons and son-in-law Jared Kushner hold 75% of the stakes in the firm. It is co-chaired by Zachary Witkoff, the son of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. Pakistani Prime Minister and Army General Asim Munir was seen hosting them after the signing ceremony. Gentry Beach, a friend of Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr, a Trump associate who raised millions of dollars for Trump’s campaign, toured Pakistan, Bangladesh and Turkey in January. He is believed to have favoured investments in the mining sector and facilitated the crypto deal. In the thick of Operation Sindoor, the US unlocked the IMF bailout plan for Pakistan, facilitating the immediate release of $1 billion and approving a fresh loan of $1.4 billion. As India continues to intensify its campaign against Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism, Trump has recently appointed two known jihadists and sympathisers of Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and Hamas, Ismail Royer and Shaykh Hamza Yusuf, to the White House advisory board under the Religious Liberty Commission. Buoyed by Trump’s favours, Pakistan signed long-time Trump associates Javelin Associates, Keith Schiller, and George Sorial, the Trump Organisation’s compliance officer, to forge a long-term economic partnership and secure investments in mining. It is well known that countries lobby the US to influence its foreign policy for favourable gains and trade deals. However, Trump’s brazen whitewashing of Pakistani terrorism and re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan has dismayed New Delhi. Trump’s praise of Pakistan at the Union State address for handing over a terrorist while lashing out at India as ‘tariff King’ and authorisation of $397 million for F-16 maintenance, which is among the 243 exceptions made under an executive order that halted overseas funding, hasn’t escaped India’s notice. The drift has been steady. India was among the few countries to have diplomatically managed Trump’s trade deal, quietly absorbing his barbs. But this perceived red line and misadventurous blustering on India-Pakistan mediation has solidified India’s doubts of the US as an ‘unreliable partner’. Trump’s diplomatic cover fire to Pakistan is inexcusable on many counts as it betrays the trust of his own vote bank that has silently voiced concerns over Islamist radicalism. Additionally, Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’, which proposes to impose 3.5% tax on outward remittances, his initial warning to Tim Cook, “I don’t want you building (manufacturing) in India” and threatening to impose 25% tax on iPhones made in India and other countries are ample indicators of his attempt to intimidate India. Putin has played down Trump, and Xi Jinping has defied him. Now, Trump is running down on India for some quick wins. Over eight decades, India has determinedly withstood America’s strong-arm tactics and asserted its strategic autonomy. However, Trump’s ruthless disregard of India’s insensitivities has sowed political distrust. Given the multi-dimensional cooperation of the Comprehensive Strategic Global Partnership between India and US, India has to now rework its engagement with Trump administration. With a strategic financial investment in Trump’s empire, Pakistan has now earned his backing. Implicitly, Trump expects Indian businesses to open their purse strings. While bureaucrats and analysts continue to parrot, ‘structural and systemic convergences between India and US are too deep’ to be undermined, the path to compromised American political systems clearly runs through lobbyist alleys. Value-based geopolitics is a thing of past; financial realism is what matters in Trump’s world.

May 22, 2025
Viren S Doshi

Trump 2.0: First Four Months, Geopolitical Decisions and Actions

Trump Administration’s geopolitical decisions and actions from January 20, 2025 to May 20, 2025 covering India, Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Qatar, CCP-occupied China, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Palestine, other key countries, multilateral organisations, UN, as well as the decisions and actions covering Islamic terrorism, illegal immigration, university campus protesters, and “wokeists” have been summed up in this compilation. This is a quick recap to provide a comprehensive view across the entire geopolitical spectrum, also bringing forth the interconnected aspects of various decisions and actions when viewed simultaneously. This summary is also likely to help counter the CCP mooted vitriolic disinformation campaign to disrupt US relations with others by tarnishing the credibility of the Trump-led US and Trump's image. Countries / Multilaterals India For: Extradited Tahawwur Rana (2008 Mumbai attacks) to India on April 10, 2025, strengthening counterterrorism ties. Arrested Khalistani terrorist Amarjeet Singh in California (March 2025). Put in efforts for India-Pakistan ceasefire on May 10, 2025, halting fighting after an April 22 Pahalgam attack attributed to Pakistan-backed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance engaging PM Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and NSA Ajit Doval. Trump pledged to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 during Modi’s February 2025 visit, with talks for a trade deal by autumn 2025. Against: Remittance Tax: A proposed 5% tax on remittances could impact Indian NRIs on H-1B, F-1 visas, and green card holders, as one fourth of India’s remittances come from the U.S. (This would affect other countries too, including CCP-occupied China and Pakistan. But, it would affect India the most.) Tariffs and Trade: Imposed a 10% baseline tariff on India’s exports (e.g., textiles, gems, auto parts), effective April 5, 2025, covering 56.1% of exports ($74 billion in 2024). A planned 26-27% reciprocal tariff, announced on April 2, 2025, to counter India’s 17% average tariff rate, was paused for 90 days on April 9, 2025, maintaining the 10% rate during trade negotiations. Exemptions apply to pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and copper. The 10% tariff may reduce India’s GDP growth by 0.2%, though opportunities may arise from higher tariffs on competitors like CCP-occupied China. India offered to reduce its tariff gap to under 4% and grant preferential access to 90% of U.S. goods to avoid future hikes. Revoked 1,000+ student visas of students (some of them Indians) reportedly involved in undesirable activities. Other: Supported Pakistan’s $1 billion IMF loan despite India’s terror concerns, but now an additional 11 stringent conditions have been applied on Pakistan. Provided $397 million in F-16 monitoring aid. Trump’s ceasefire announcement contradicted India’s stance against third-party mediation. Note: Ceasefire left India’s punitive measures (e.g., Indus Waters Treaty suspension, visa bans) intact; India firmly rejected U.S. mediation on Kashmir. The measures apparently against Indian interests are likely to open up new opportunities as stated in the case of tariffs. Measures related to Pakistan are likely to flip Pakistan from CCP-occupied China to the US and thereby may be of respite given the potential of India-US relations vis-à-vis India-CCP conflict. Israel For: Endorsed Gaza operations, approved $11.41 billion in arms deals, sanctioned ICC for targeting Israeli leaders, and backed Gaza aid blockade and Palestinian resettlement to Egypt/Jordan. Negotiated with Hamas for American hostage Edan Alexander’s release (May 2025). Against: Nuclear talks with Iran, Houthi airstrike cessation and Syria sanctions lift (opposed by Netanyahu) strained ties. UAE For: Secured $1.4 trillion in U.S. tech investments during Gulf tour (May 13-16, 2025). UAE’s mediation for Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchanges (4,181 prisoners) strengthened ties. Against: Pressured to cut CCP-occupied China ties, risking economic relations ($20 billion annual trade). Saudi Arabia For: Secured $600 billion in U.S. investments and $142 billion in arms sales. Hosted Trump’s meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa. Houthi strikes and the Abraham Accords align with Saudi interests. Against: Saudi Arabia’s CCP-occupied China ties and neutral Russia-Ukraine stance challenge the U.S. alignment. Saudi Arabia’s push for Palestinian statehood halted Abraham Accords talks. Europe For: Limited cooperation on Houthi-targeted trade vessels. Against: Imposed 20% tariffs on EU goods, prompting Italian PM Giorgia Meloni to warn of a trade war. NATO scepticism and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement / WHO strain ties. Berlin backed Trump’s 5% NATO spending demand. The EU launched consultations on countermeasures (e.g., duties on U.S. aircraft, IT equipment). Qatar For: Committed $1.2 trillion to U.S., including $96 billion for Boeing aircraft, mediated Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Syria talks. Against: Pressured to cut Hamas and Iran ties, risking non-NATO ally status. Qatar’s $400 million Boeing 747 offer for Air Force One accepted by Trump Administration. CCP-occupied China For: Signed a tariff deal on May 14, 2025, reducing U.S. tariffs on CCP-occupied China’s goods by 115 percentage points (to 30%) and CCP-occupied China suspending its 34% retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met CCP-occupied China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Geneva on May 12, 2025, to negotiate. Against: Tariff Timeline (2025): February 1: Executive Order 14195 declared a national emergency over drug trafficking, alleging that CCP-occupied China’s role in opioid networks. Imposed 10% tariffs on all CCP-occupied China imports, effective February 4, to pressure fentanyl trade. March 4: Raised tariffs to 20%. CCP-occupied China retaliated with 10-15% tariffs on U.S. agricultural, meat, and dairy products, effective March 10. April 2: Imposed a 34% “reciprocal tariff” on most CCP-occupied China imports. CCP-occupied China responded with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, effective April 10. April 5-10: U.S. tariffs increased by 125 percentage points (10% on April 5, 74% on April 9, 41% on April 10), reaching 126.5% average (including 20% fentanyl-related, Section 301 tariffs of 7.5-100%, and others). CCP-occupied China raised tariffs to 84% on April 9 and 125% on April 11, peaking at 147.6% average. April 11: U.S. clarified sectoral carveouts (e.g., electronics like iPhones, laptops) from reciprocal tariffs, though CCP-occupied China goods remained subject to 20% tariffs. May 2: Eliminated de minimis exemption for CCP-occupied China and Hong Kong, imposing 120% duties or $100-$200 per package on low-value shipments (e.g., Shein, Temu). May 12: Executive order reduced de minimis duties to 54%, effective May 14. May 14: U.S.-CCP-occupied China trade deal reduced U.S. tariffs by 115 percentage points to 30% (retaining 10% baseline, Section 301, and fentanyl tariffs) and CCP-occupied China tariffs to 10% for 90 days. Average U.S. tariffs fell to 51.1% (from 126.5%); CCP-occupied China’s fell to 32.6% (from 147.6%). Economic Impact: Tariffs raised $37.9 billion in revenue since January 20, 2025, with $63.3 billion in customs duties collected in fiscal year 2025, up $15 billion. Imports from CCP-occupied China fell by $542 billion (16%). U.S. GDP projected to decline by 0.7%, household costs to rise by $1,200-$2,800 annually. Stock markets dropped 4-5% after tariff announcements but rose after the May 14 deal. Other Actions: Tech Restrictions: Banned CCP-occupied China’s firms (e.g., Huawei, ZTE) from U.S. 5G infrastructure and restricted U.S. investments in CCP-occupied China’s AI and semiconductor sectors. Decoupling: Launched “Decouple Now” campaign with $50 billion in incentives to relocate U.S. manufacturing to Mexico and India. Apple increased imports of Indian-made phones. Sanctions: Sanctioned CCP-occupied China’s officials linked to Uyghur abuses, freezing $10 billion in assets. South China Sea: Strengthened Quad naval exercises to counter CCP-occupied China’s maritime claims, escalating tensions after a March 2025 near-collision. Taiwan: Approved $2 billion in arms sales (F-16 jets, missiles), prompting CCP-occupied China’s military drills near Taiwan. Tibet: Trump issued a statement on March 15, 2025, condemning CCP-occupied China’s “cultural genocide” in Tibet, citing restrictions on Tibetan language, religious practices, and cultural identity. He met the Dalai Lama’s envoy in Washington on April 20, 2025, urging CCP-occupied China to resume dialogue with Tibetan leaders, the first such high-level U.S. engagement since 2019. No Tibet-specific sanctions or trade measures were imposed. On May 18, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanded the immediate release of Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, the 11th Panchen Lama, abducted by CCP-occupied China in 1995 at age six, marking the 30th anniversary of his disappearance. Rubio urged CCP-occupied China to disclose Nyima’s whereabouts and well-being, allow him to return to Tashi Lhunpo Monastery, and permit U.S. officials to meet him in person, citing violations of Tibetan religious freedom. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch and Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen echoed this on May 17, 2025, calling Nyima a symbol of Tibetans’ fight for religious liberty. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) reiterated calls for an independent expert to verify Nyima’s status. Turkey For: Erdoğan’s rapport aided U.S.-Syria talks; NATO status leveraged. Joined Trump-Sharaa meeting, praising Syria sanctions lift. Against: Tensions over U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria. Pakistan For: Put in efforts for India-Pakistan ceasefire (May 2025); supported $1 billion IMF loan. Exempted $397 million in security assistance from aid cuts in February 2025 to monitor Pakistan’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, ensuring their use for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, not against India, via a Technical Security Team of U.S. contractors. Against: Pressured to extradite 26/11 terrorists like Hafiz Saeed. IMF loan tied to 11 conditions (fiscal deficit reduction, counterterrorism financing oversight, etc.). “Extreme vetting” targets Pakistanis. Iran For: Initiated nuclear talks via Oman (March 2025). Against: “Maximum pressure” with B-2 bombers, Houthi strikes, and proxy sanctions. Iran criticised Trump’s Syria sanctions lift. Yemen Against: Intensified Houthi strikes; terrorist redesignation. Palestine Against: Proposed Palestinian resettlement, halted UNRWA funding, endorsed Gaza aid blockade. Other Countries Syria: Lifted sanctions and pledged normalisation after Trump met interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Riyadh (May 14, 2025). Trump urged Sharaa to: sign the Abraham Accords; expel foreign terrorists; deport Hamas terrorists to Israel; prevent ISIS resurgence; and manage ISIS detention centres. Sharaa affirmed the 1974 Israel-Syria agreement but did not confirm Abraham Accords participation. Israel opposes sanctions lift, citing Sharaa’s al-Qaeda past, and escalated Syria airstrikes. Russia: Put in efforts for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks; voted against UN Ukraine resolution; agreed with Putin on peace memorandum. Ukraine: US-Ukraine deal for reconstruction signed. Efforts for a ceasefire. Quad (Japan, Australia): Strengthened naval exercises against CCP-occupied China; trade talks with Japan, India. United Nations Against: Withdrew from UN Human Rights Council, WHO, climate fund; halted UNRWA funding; rejected UN 2030 goals and gender equality language. Suspended 11% of WTO’s $232 million 2024 budget. NATO Members asked to contribute more towards defence expenses. Specific Issues Islamic Terrorism: Extradited Tahavvur Rana, arrested Pakistan promoted Khalistani terrorist Amarjeet Singh, struck ISIS in Somalia, redesignated Houthis as terrorists, struck them, truce in effect now. Appointed Department of Homeland Security vetted two ex-jihadists to an advisory board (March 2025) for religious freedom, facing criticism, but aimed to counter extremism. Pakistan’s IMF loan and $397 million F-16 aid are tied to counterterrorism oversight. Trump urged Syria’s Sharaa to deport foreign and Hamas terrorists and prevent ISIS resurgence. Gaza resettlement related plans. Illegal Immigrants, Criminals, Rapists January 20, 2025, executive order targets “alien” threats. Operation Secure Borders deported 15,000. Including 1,200 Muslims (300 Pakistanis, e.g., Mohammad Asif; 250 Afghans, e.g., Ahmad Zia; 150 Bangladeshis, e.g., Rahim Uddin). Ended Venezuelan protections (50,000 affected). Total deportations approximately 1,50,000. Criminals and rapists are hunted down vigorously for deportation. Hamas Protesters: Arrested 500 students (e.g., 50 at Columbia, including Fatima Hassan) for pro-Hamas protests. Wokeists Opposed Diversity Equity Inclusion (DEI) affirmative actions Opposed Gender related leftist agenda, rejected non-binary frameworks for binary definitions at all levels and took appropriate actions in this context.

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