Tracking the Constituencies of South India: Part 3– Can the NDA alliance win in Tamil Nadu & Puducherry or will it be UPA in the Lead?
- In Politics
- 09:38 PM, Apr 17, 2019
- Kishor Narayan
South India goes to polls during the first 3 phases of the General Elections 2019. Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will be voting on April 18. This article is the third in a 5-part series which tracks important candidates and constituencies in the state of Tamil Nadu and Union Territory of Puducherry. The remaining parts will focus on the other states in the region. Part 1 on Telangana can be read here and Part 2 on Andhra Pradesh can be read here and Part 4 on Karnataka can read here.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu has witnessed multiple political developments in the past couple of years. Soon after AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa held on to power beating anti-incumbency in 2016, it was analyzed that she was unbeatable and DMK had no ideas about how to defeat her. This was followed soon after by her falling ill and eventually succumbing to her illness. As the people were left shocked and clueless due to her sudden death, AIADMK witnessed an intense power struggle between multiple factions – O Panneerselvam (who was the Chief Minister), Edappadi Palanisamy (who is now the Chief Minister) and Sasikala Natarajan (with her nephew TTV Dinakaran). Within a couple of months of her death, Supreme Court declared both J Jayalalithaa and Sasikala Natarajan guilty in the disproportionate assets case. Sasikala was jailed in Bengaluru and debarred from politics. The 2 factions of OPS and EPS jostled for the top spot. Eventually EPS prevailed as he had a larger support base among the MLAs. Battered and bruised, TTV Dinakaran walked out of the party and floated a new party Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (Amma People’s Progress Federation) and is currently an MLA from Dr Radhakrishnan Nagar in Chennai. He tried to poach 21 MLAs from AIADMK in an attempt to destabilize the government, but Madras High Court dismissed the MLAs.
On the other hand, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief nonagenarian M Karunanidhi passed away last year. His younger son M K Stalin picked up the mantle of party leadership. However, he hasn’t been able to instill confidence among the DMK voters in particular and the TN population in general. Example of this was in the RK Nagar bypoll which was won by TTV Dinakaran. Despite being in Chennai North Lok Sabha constituency where DMK is traditionally strong, DMK ended up a miserable third losing the deposit.
Now, the Election Commission has announced polls for 17 of 21 assembly constituencies along with the 39 parliamentary constituencies on April 18. The remaining 4 will go to polls on May 19. Results for both assembly and parliamentary constituencies will be declared on May 23.
AIADMK has a slender margin in the state assembly and it is important for the party to win a fair share of the 21 assembly seats. This was one of the reasons for it to enter into an alliance with multiple parties. As per the alliance deal, AIADMK gets to contest in all 21 assembly seats to maximize its chance to achieve a clear majority. In return, AIADMK will contest in just 20 parliamentary seats leaving the rest to the partners. Anbumoni Ramadoss’s Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) will contest from 7, BJP will contest from 5 and Captain Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (National Progressive Dravidian Federation) will try its luck from 4 seats. GK Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress, K Krishnasamy’s Puthiya Thamizhagam, and New Justice Party will contest from 1 seat each.
DMK is not fully confident of defeating the formidable NDA alliance all alone and hence has tied up with UPA parties and will be contesting from only 19 seats. Congress will contest from 10 and Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (Renaissance Dravidian Progressive Federation) will contest from 1 and Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chirutaigal Katchi (Liberation Panther Party) will contest from 2. India Jananayaga Katchi (India Democratic Party), Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (Kongunadu People National Party), Indian Union Muslim League will contest from 1 seat each. CPI and CPI(M) will contest from 2 seats each.
Historically Tamil Nadu has swung decisively in any one particular direction. In 2004 and 2009, DMK-led UPA alliance won 39 and 27 seats respectively. 2014 swung the other way. AIADMK under J Jayalalithaa won 37 of 39 seats with 44.3 per cent vote share. Only PMK and BJP were able to survive AIADMK’s onslaught by winning 1 seat each.
2019 is a unique case where the state is witnessing a double power vacuum after the passing away of leaders of both major parties. AIADMK’s internal squabbling, splits, defections and administration woes have helped DMK to emerge once again as a powerful alternative. AIADMK, on its part, has been unable to counter any allegations levelled against it. But the smart alliances stitched up by AIADMK has resulted in innovative social engineering among various castes and communities across the state.
Kamal Hassan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (People’s Center for Justice) and TTV Dinakaran’s AMMK are also contesting from all parliamentary constituencies and might act as spoilers for both the primary parties.
One thing is certain. 2019 will not witness a decisive swing for any one particular alliance. Political transition periods (emerging out of double vacuums) like these throw up interesting outcomes and Tamil Nadu might provide a split verdict.
Chennai South
Dominated by upper castes, Chennai South has always picked candidates who go on and assume larger roles. T T Krishnamachari (Union Finance Minister), C N Annadurai (Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu), R Venkataraman (Union Finance Minister), Murasoli Maran (Union Commerce and Industry Minister) are some examples of this illustrious list.
Sitting AIADMK MP J Jayavardhan, son of Fisheries Minister, D Jayakumar, a doctor by profession, is trying his luck again. In 2014, while DMK came second, BJP candidate was third (and lagged DMK by a very small margin). Arithmetic indicates that AIADMK and BJP contesting together now should be a cakewalk for J Jayavardhan. But Jayavardhan cannot take certain issues - like vote transferability from BJP to AIADMK, low voting percentage and traditional minority votes of ADMK getting alienated due to its tieup with BJP - for granted.
DMK candidate is Thamizhachi Thangapandian (also known as T Sumathi), daughter of former minister V Thangapandian. She is a poet, dancer and Tamil writer. She is contesting elections for the first time and not many people have even heard about her. These factors might go against her on polling day. An upset is highly unlikely and we should be seeing Jayavardhan retaining his seat.
Chennai Central
One of the smallest constituencies, Chennai Central will see former minister Dayanidhi Maran contesting to become an MP for the 3rd time. He has already been a Minister for Telecommunications and Textiles in UPA1 and UPA2 respectively. He is currently facing trial in the illegal telephone exchange case. He will have a straightforward contest against Sam Paul, a lawyer and businessman, of the PMK and should be able to win in all probability.
Sriperumbudur
5-time parliamentarian T R Baalu of the DMK is contesting from Sriperumbudur. He was a minister in both NDA and UPA governments holding various portfolios. Earlier he had represented Chennai South for 4 consecutive terms from 1996. However after delimitation exercise, he opted for Sriperumbudur constituency. He will have a straight forward contest against PMK’s Vice President Dr. A Vaithilingam.
Vellore
Vellore has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Election Commission raided a DMK associate’s house in Vellore and found 12 crore rupees in cash. It eventually countermanded the election here after receiving the Presidential nod. DMK’s associates have accepted that it was indeed their money that was confiscated. DMK’s treasurer and former Law Minister Durai Murugan’s son Kadir Anand was hoping to make his electoral debut from this seat and will now have to wait. He was pipped against AIADMK’s AC Shanmugam, businessman and chancellor of Dr MGR Educational and Research Institute.
Dharmapuri
Former minister and PMK leader Anbumani Ramadoss will contest from his stronghold of Dharmapuri. Such is his grip on the constituency that he was only one of two non-AIADMK candidates to win in 2014 (other being in Kanyakumari). In 2014, he had defeated AIADMK candidate by 70 thousand votes. Arithmetically, PMK and AIADMK had 78% of the votes then. He is now pitted against DMK candidate Dr. S Senthil Kumar and should have an easy path to retain his seat.
Nilgiris
Nilgiris has become infamous for its 2009 parliamentarian A Raja who was jailed in the 2G Spectrum Case and subsequently acquitted. He is now contesting on a DMK ticket against M Thiagarajan of AIADMK, former Pollachi MP. This seat can see a close contest between the two candidates with a narrow margin of victory for either candidate.
Coimbatore
2-time MP C P Radhakrishnan lost from Coimbatore in 2014 with a slender margin against the AIADMK candidate. Lying in the Kongunadu region, Coimbatore is seen to be traditionally softer on BJP than the rest of the state. Radhakrishnan would want to bank on it and the alliance arithmetic owing to vote transfers happening from AIADMK and DMDK to the BJP.
Pitted against him is the 2009 winner CPIM candidate P R Natarajan who is getting support from DMK and Congress. GST woes in the initial months and demonetization has led to some amount of resentment against BJP, since Coimbatore is a manufacturing and industries hub. Natarajan would be exploiting these fissures to the maximum.
Despite these shortcomings, based on traditional strength, past trends and alliance arithmetic, Coimbatore in all probability should be voting for Radhakrishnan.
Sivaganga
Former Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram has represented this constituency twice in 2004 and 2009. The 2009 victory was infamous for its recounts and eventually he was declared to be the winner with a margin of 3500 votes. In 2014, he opted out and instead fielded his son Karti Chidambaram. In a multi-cornered fight, Karti ended up 4th with just 10% of total votes polled in his favour. He is now the Congress candidate and hopes to be second time lucky. Unfortunately for him, there was a lot of internal opposition against him being fielded as the candidate. Ex- Congress MP Natchiappan led the revolt and it needs to be seen how it affects Karti’s chances.
On the other hand, BJP’s candidate H Raja is an old warhorse from this constituency, having contested in 1999 (captured 35% votes) and 2014 (captured 13% votes). In 2014 polls, AIADMK candidate had won with 46% vote share. In the end, we might see NDA’s alliance arithmetic helping H Raja to sail through and defeat Karti Chidambaram.
Theni
Theni will see a high-voltage contest between veteran Congressman EVKS Elangovan, who has served as Union Minister for Textiles in UPA1. He has won from Gobichettipalayam seat in 2004 and lost from Erode in 2009. He is now contesting from Theni against P Raveendranath Kumar, son of Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam. This will be a prestige battle for the party and the Deputy CM. Theni has been a stronghold of the ADMK. It has consistently captured 40%+ votes in all elections here in the past 2 decades. In the end, we should see rookie Raveendranath Kumar winning his first election.
Ramanathapuram
Ramanathapuram will witness a rare political event – BJP pitted against IUML. While mainland still has majority Hindu population, the island of Rameshwaram and surrounding areas has seen an increase in numbers of Christians and Muslims. Hence, religious and caste demographics will play a key role. Interesting BJP has maintained a steady 15%+ vote share here in all parliamentary elections. BJP has fielded Nainar Nagendran, who joined BJP from AIADMK after Jayalalithaa passed away. He has been an ex-MLA and minister in AIADMK government and is known to have considerable influence in the Vaigai delta areas. Upon joining BJP he was made the state BJP vice-president, which emphasizes his popularity in the region.
He is pitted against Nawaz Kani of the IUML who will be banking heavily on the minority votes from both Christians and Muslims. In the end, we might see Nainar entering the parliament for the first time.
Toothukudi
An all-woman battle in Toothukudi is adding to the drama in this constituency. In 2018 May, there were large scale protests against Vedanta’s Sterlite copper smelter unit in which 14 unarmed civilians were shot dead which was a major embarrassment for the ruling AIADMK. Amidst the intense legal and political battles, BJP too lost out in the narrative as DMK and other parties blamed the Union government for wanting to keep the factory running despite pollution concerns.
However, BJP and AIADMK have put all this behind and have fielded Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan, BJP State President. Hailing from the Nadar caste which has a sizeable presence here, Tamilisai will hope to get their votes to swing her way.
Contesting against her is another heavyweight Kanimozhi, daughter of M Karunanidhi. She too is a Nadar from her mother’s side and has been aggressively playing the caste card in the region. In addition, she hopes to get the sizeable Christian fisherfolk to vote for her. In the end, Kanimozhi might win a hard-fought victory for the DMK.
Kanyakumari
Kanyakumari, like Dharmapuri, withstood the AIADMK onslaught and had chosen Pon Radhakrishnan (locally called as Ponnaar) as the lone BJP MP from the state in 2014. He is currently the MoS for Finance and Shipping. He is facing stiff opposition from the Church for his victory. His promise of developing a port in Colachel in the constituency was moved out to Enayam under the Sagarmala project which led to protests from local fishermen. Eventually, the project was moved out to Kovalam not to anguish the sizeable Christian population in the constituency.
Kanyakumari has unique demographics with Hindus and Christians in almost equal numbers.
Congress is fielding noted entrepreneur Vasanthakumar, founder and chairman of Vasanth & Co., a home retail appliance store. He holds the record of being the richest candidate in the fray this time. He is also the uncle of state BJP president and Toothukudi contestant Tamilisai Soundararajan. With a Hindu candidate, Congress will hope to poach into BJP’s votes to win this constituency. However, it is to be noted that even in 2016 assembly polls, BJP did get a large share of Christian votes even in Christian majority assembly seats.
Hence, this constituency, like Nilgiris will see a tight contest and Ponnaar might eventually scrape through.
Puducherry
NDA’s alliance partner N Ramasamy Congress (NR Congress) will get to contest from Puducherry parliamentary constituency and is fielding a rookie politician. Similarly, Congress, which is the ruling party, gets to contest and is fielding its heavyweight former two-time CM V Vaithilingam. Amidst all the administrative tussle between Lt Governor Kiran Bedi, seen as Modi’s representative and Congress Chief Minister V Narayanasamy, Congress should be able to romp home with a handsome victory margin.
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