According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2026, India has slightly increased its nuclear arsenal, taking its estimated stockpile to around 190 warheads by the beginning of 2026. The report states that India continues to modernise its nuclear delivery systems and is placing greater focus on long-range capabilities that can reach targets deep inside China. At the same time, New Delhi remains focused on its long-standing strategic rivalry with Pakistan.

The SIPRI report describes Operation Sindoor in May 2025 as one of the most serious military confrontations between India and Pakistan in recent years. During the crisis, India targeted air and missile bases in Pakistan that were believed to have links to nuclear-related operations. Despite the severity of the situation, both countries took measured steps to prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.

A major development during the May 2025 crisis was the use of cyber operations alongside conventional military actions. SIPRI noted that this was the first time both India and Pakistan had integrated cyber capabilities into an active military conflict. The report says this reflects the changing nature of warfare and deterrence between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, where cyber operations are increasingly becoming part of strategic and military planning.

The report further highlights India's growing military strength. India retained its position as the world's fifth-largest military spender in 2025 and remained the second-largest importer of major arms during the 2021–25 period. India's military expenditure reached $92.1 billion in 2025, registering an increase of 8.9 per cent compared to the previous year. Only the United States, China, Russia and Germany spent more on defence.

SIPRI identified 162 countries that received major arms between 2021 and 2025. Among them, Ukraine, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan emerged as the five largest recipients, together accounting for 35 per cent of total global arms imports. India alone represented 8.2 per cent of worldwide arms imports, reinforcing its position as the second-largest importer of major weapons systems.

On the global nuclear front, SIPRI observed that the world's nine nuclear-armed states are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power. These countries include the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. The report notes that this trend marks a reversal of decades of efforts aimed at reducing both the number of nuclear weapons and their role in international security. SIPRI warns that this shift increases the risks of miscalculation and escalation.

At the start of 2026, the nine nuclear-armed states collectively possessed approximately 12,187 nuclear weapons. Out of these, around 9,745 were part of military stockpiles and were considered potentially available for operational use. An estimated 4,012 warheads were deployed with operational forces. More than half of these were maintained on ballistic missiles in a state of high operational readiness, with the number estimated between 2,100 and 2,200 warheads.

Although the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide continues to decline, SIPRI says this reduction is mainly due to the dismantling of retired warheads by the United States and Russia. The report cautions that the pace of dismantlement is slowing. It also warns that the rate at which new warheads are being added to global stockpiles could soon exceed the rate at which older weapons are dismantled.

The United States and Russia continue to dominate global nuclear inventories, together accounting for nearly 86 per cent of all nuclear warheads. Both countries are actively pursuing extensive nuclear modernisation programmes. China is also expanding its arsenal at a notable pace. According to SIPRI, China's nuclear stockpile increased from 600 to as many as 620 warheads during 2025. The report adds that India, like Israel, has primarily produced plutonium for its nuclear weapons programme.

SIPRI also points to the growing importance of submarine-based nuclear delivery systems. Such capabilities are becoming more common, particularly among the four nuclear-armed countries in the Indo-Pacific region. India's continued investment in sea-based deterrence reflects this trend. Submarine-launched ballistic missiles strengthen survivability and provide a credible second-strike capability, making them a key component of nuclear deterrence.

The report notes a sharp rise in interstate armed conflicts across the world. The number of such conflicts doubled from three in 2024 to six in 2025 and involved at least 13 countries. These conflicts included Afghanistan–Pakistan, Cambodia–Thailand, India–Pakistan, Iran–Israel/United States, Russia/North Korea–Ukraine and Congo–Rwanda.

Karim Haggag, Director of SIPRI, stated in his introduction that the past decade has fundamentally altered the strategic environment. He emphasised that "the defining feature of this current phase of great power competition is the resurgence of large-scale interstate war between technologically advanced states and the erosion of the United States’ alliance frameworks."

The report concludes that the security environment across Asia and Oceania remained heavily influenced by the growing strategic competition between China and the United States throughout 2025. Within this broader regional context, India's nuclear expansion and military modernisation reflect shifting power dynamics and rising security concerns across the region.