Aggressiveness versus Assertiveness-India needs to stop treating Pakistan with kid gloves
- In Military & Strategic Affairs
- 09:35 PM, May 22, 2017
- Lt. Col Manish Jaitly
More than a decade ago when George Fernandes referred to China as our enemy number one, he couldn’t have been more wrong. It is Pakistan which is our enemy number one, for now at least. That’s because China is only assertive of its claims on parts of Indian Territory whereas Pakistan is not just assertive, it is aggressive. In every war that we’ve fought with Pakistan, they’re the ones who’ve been the aggressor, India has only reacted to the situation which they created.
For the 1962 war there are conflicting claims, both by China as well as India, as to who the aggressor was. The recently published Henderson Brooks report lays the blame on Nehru’s forward policy for the war. Pertinent to mention that it was China, who, after having reached Tawang and later Bomdilla, declared a ceasefire unilaterally and vacated these areas. An aggressive nation generally does not do that. This is not to say that they will always remain just assertive and not become aggressive. The situation has changed substantially since 1962 and is still undergoing a transformation which will manifest itself in times to come.
Pakistan, on the other hand does not believe in just being assertive. They’re aggressive in all their dealings with India. In many ways, their attitude even borders on barbarism. Sending terrorists to kill innocent people in India and beheading our soldiers on the border posts are prime examples of this barbarism. This should not be surprising since Wahabism has permeated into the very fabric of Pakistani society, which teaches its followers to kill and maim all Kafirs. As a result, their unofficial policy is that of Ghazwa-e-Hind which means they want to fly their flag in New Delhi and make us an Islamic nation. To the contrary, as things stand today, China only lays claim to certain parts of Indian territory. This explains the difference in their attitudes and responses vis-à-vis India.
Unfortunately, Indian response to both these countries has been less than appropriate to what it should’ve been. We’re only assertive against Pakistan and less than assertive with China. After our loss in 1962, we’ve become so wary of China that our response is much milder than what it should be. The fact that China has become a world power has only increased this wariness.
However, even today if there are any signs of an aggressive China it is only in Aksai Chin, not everywhere. This is so because one of their important highways, the G219, connects Tibet with Xinjiang province and runs through Aksai Chin. This highway is a lifeline for these areas. Even though China is aggressive in Aksai Chin, there are no violent clashes with them on the border. So, in Kashmir while we have border issues with both China and Pakistan, our engagement is violent only with Pakistan. It clearly shows, between the two, which one is the aggressive nation.
This clearly implies that in case we go to war with Pakistan in the near future, as things stand today, China may not get directly involved in it. They have too much at stake with India in terms of trade to risk a war, although they would help them with supplies, weapons and ammunition etc. However, if before that, for some reason, we have a direct faceoff with China, Pakistan will surely get directly involved and launch its own offensive on our western front. This is a no brainer. This means that we need to sort out our problems with Pakistan before we reach a stage wherein we have a faceoff with China.
Unfortunately, with the China-Pakistan economic corridor coming up, the window for us to find a resolution to the Kashmir issue is fast shrinking. Since this corridor runs through Gilgit-Baltistan, it makes China a direct stake holder in Kashmir. Till now what was only a bilateral issue will soon become a trilateral one. Not just this, this corridor gives China the capability to launch a two front war on its own. In a way, it is like they’re throttling us from both sides. It is therefore not surprising that China is in a tearing hurry to complete the process.
However, this hurry is also on account of certain economic reasons than just security. According to a Mckinsey report of 2016, in recent years the total debt of Chinese banks has risen to 25 trillion dollars, which is nearly 2.5 times their GDP. In order to service this huge debt they need to monetize both CPEC as well as its parent initiative, One Belt One Road (OBOR) corridor, as quickly as possible. If and when this corridor along with other factors like growth in global economy results in Chinese economy recovering from this huge debt trap, China will then surely think of exploiting this corridor for security purposes on its own. Whether this corridor is just a gamble or can it turn the fortunes of both China and Pakistan, only time will tell. If it succeeds, we can be rest assured that China will not remain just assertive anymore. The dragon will become aggressive. That’s the way the dragon works. Once it is fully grown and healthy it feeds upon its neighbors. In that scenario, a conflict between India and Pakistan will just be a ruse for it to launch an offensive against us, from two directions.
One way or another, in the next decade or even before that, we’ll know the fate of the corridor and its implications thereof. The question is - whether we want to wait for that to happen or can we do something to avoid facing both of them simultaneously. If the answer to this question is in the affirmative, then there are indeed a few things that we can do.
At this point of time, Pakistan is fast becoming a place which holds a lot of promise for Chinese hegemony. If we hurt Pakistan directly, we hurt China indirectly. Therefore, it is Pakistan which we need to deal with first urgently. For far too long we’ve been treating Pakistan with kid gloves. The first thing we need to do is to be more aggressive towards them. Surgical strikes too have not deterred them. We need to create a situation wherein we threaten the CPEC either directly or indirectly which Pakistan sees as a panacea for all its problems. Only when they see a threat to it will they understand that we mean business. If Pakis have made Kashmir our bane, we can make CPEC their bane too. It is their biggest weakness till it becomes successful. This can be done in two ways.
A very large part of CPEC is in the state of Balochistan including the all-important port of Gwadar. Ethnic Balochis are fighting against Pakistan army for quite some time now. They even oppose leasing out of huge tracts of land from the state to China for CPEC. The first step we need to take is to extend unflinching support to Balochistan rebels. An organized Baloch resistance will be seen as a threat to CPEC by Pakistan. To achieve this, the Balochis need to have a government in exile. It is likely that if this government is established, it will make sure that Pakistan climbs down a couple of notches from its perch where it sits today. Just like we helped Tibetans to establish their government in exile in Dharamshala, we need to do the same for Baloch rebels as well. Moreover, if by helping the Tibetans we can antagonize our bigger enemy China, I wonder why we cannot do the same with our smaller enemy Pakistan.
Secondly, the river Indus runs all along this corridor. Apart from being the lifeline of their food bowl in Punjab, adequate water in Indus is also a pre-requisite for this corridor to succeed. Revocation or even reconsideration of Indus Water Treaty will force both these nations to reconsider their antagonistic stance towards India. For Pakistan it’ll deal a double blow as it’ll affect the heartlands of Punjab as well. In a certain way, our aggressiveness with Pakistan will be seen by China our assertiveness with them.
Both the steps can either be taken simultaneously or one after another, after measuring the impact of the first. These issues have been discussed in the country for a very long time now. It’s high time the government took the bull by its horns, since time is at a premium now. There are many other small steps like declaring Pakistan a terrorist state or revoking their MFN status etc, which can also be taken. But these steps are too small to deter Pakistan from carrying out its nefarious activities. We need to get bolder and pro-active. If we only keep reacting to the shenanigans of Pakistanis they’re the ones who’ll keep getting bolder. Success of CPEC will only hasten this process. We therefore need to be more aggressive with Pakistan before China starts getting aggressive with us.
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