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Apr 16, 2024
Shwetank Bhushan

General Elections 2024: A Repeat of Modi-Tsunami and Foreseeable Gains in New Constituencies [Part 3]

The Congress Part’s manifesto — the Nyay Patra —is full of subsidies, doles, and freebies, aimed at keeping people poor and feeding them with imaginary funds. If that wasn’t enough, blind minority appeasement pushed it to directly call for a ‘fight against majoritarianism.’ It was immediately called for its striking similarity with the Muslim League charter of 1936 and fiscal irrationality. A week later BJP also unveiled its manifesto — the Sankalp Patra, a complete blueprint of a holistic and sustained growth of a country like Bharat. From the Uniform Civil Code to ‘One Nation one Election,’ continued focus on infrastructure, the Olympics in 2036, a manned mission to the moon and a permanent seat in UNSC. It has all the right ingredients, creating a propelling force for taking India through the upward curve of becoming a developed nation — Viksit Bharat. The ‘Ayushman Yojana’ or free medical insurance for all Indians above 70 years will not only cheer the senior citizens, but every caring child would also appreciate it. Commenting on it while campaigning in Kerala, Congress candidate from Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi once again found lying through his teeth. He said, “Today, the main fight is against the ideology of the RSS. The BJP people, the Prime Minister, they say one nation, one people, one language, one leader…Language is not something that is imposed from the top. Language is something that comes out from inside the person, inside the heart of the person. To tell a person from Kerala, that your language is inferior to Hindi is an insult to the people of Kerala…This idea that India should have only one leader is an insult to every single young Indian person.” Clueless of any vision for India or his party, that’s what he does every time — Lies and falsehood, then lies and falsehood, and then some more lies and some more falsehood. Surprisingly embarrassed, one of the chief Modi-baiter and congress sympathiser, who also happened to be the former chairperson and editor of The Hindu, wrote, “Time for Congress Party to get real if it wants to fight BJP on the ground. It’s loud & clear from the BJP’s poll manifesto, and the speeches of its lead campaigners particularly PM Narendra Modi, that their pitch hinges on their guarantees to various social constituencies-youth, senior citizens, farmers, and the labour force. The expected aggressive emphasis on Hindutva is just not there. Yes, there’s mention of the Ram temple & the UCC but the triumphalist tone of “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan” is thankfully abandoned. For Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, to continually harp on “manuvadi” and the RSS agenda is showing them up as outdated, and removed from the ground reality as it is today.” With all the information at their fingertip, the aspirational Indian electorate now is too smart, to ignore such a contrasting appeal. With that context, we proceed to look at what’s in store for the following 97 seats covering 13 states and UTs. 20. JAMMU & KASHMIR [ 6 Seats] There are three interesting points to be noticed in the Kashmir valley. First, no INDI alliance. The Congress manifesto says they will restore statehood to J&K, while their partners in Kashmir — both JKNC and PDP are talking about restoring 370. And they clearly do not wish to clarify their stand to the people of J&K. Second, even the ‘GUPKAR Alliance” has vanished from the valley. Third, no one is talking about boycotting the elections anymore. The Abdullah family announces that JKNC will contest all three seats in Kashmir Valley. Following that Mehbooba Mufti also announced that PDP will contest all three seats of the valley making all three seats to be a three-cornered fight. PDP announces Mehbooba Mufti as a candidate for Anantnag-Rajouri seat. Wahid Para will contest Srinagar and Fayaz Mir to contest Baramulla. JKNC has declared Syed Mehdi from Srinagar, Omar Abdullah from Baramullah and a strong candidate — Miyan Altaf from Anantnag-Rajouri. This makes Anantnag-Rajauri an interesting high-profile profile four-cornered fight since Ghulam Nabi Azad too has announced his candidature. Zafar Iqbal of the Apni Party is also contesting from this seat. As a result, the BJP is also strongly in the fray on this seat. PDP and NC will support congress candidates in Jammu and Udhampur. In Valley, congress won’t field any candidates leaving it to NC and PDP to fight it out. Now all eyes are on BJP who should be announcing their 3 candidates for the Valley and from Ladakh soon. [BJP — 3, NC — 2–3, PDP — 0–1] 21. MANIPUR [2 Seats] In Manipur, the BJP is contesting on one seat in Inner Manipur, while the outer Manipur is to be contested by its ally Naga People’s Front (NPF). Congress is contesting both the seats in alliance with CPI. On the Outer Manipur seat, NPF has fielded Kachui Timothy Zimik as the candidate denying the ticket to sitting MP Lorho S Pfoze. In 2019, NPF won this seat against BJP. Both parties together garnered 76% vote share. This seat NPF should win without a real contest. In Inner Manipur, which has been a traditional Congress seat, the BJP won in 2019 by a 2% margin in a triangular contest between Congress, BJP, and CPI. This time Communists supporting Congress should cross the magic number. [NPF — 1, INC — 1] 22. MEGHALAYA [2 Seats] In Meghalaya, where BJP is not contesting, its NDA partner NPP is contesting both the seats directly against the Congress Party. While NPP should easily retain its Sura seat, INC will also sail through Shillong, despite a good fight by NPP, BJP combined. [INC — 1, NPP — 1] 23. MIZORAM [1 Seat] The fight for the singular parliamentary constituency has become interesting with the emergence of the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) which is an alliance of six regional parties formed under the leadership of former IPS Officer Lalduhoma. In the 2023 Assembly polls, the Party won 27 out of 40 seats. It is in direct contest against Mizo National Front (MNF) which displaced its arch-rival Congress in 2019. Both Congress and BJP have fielded their candidates but are not in the fray. [ZPM — 1] 24. NAGALAND [1 Seat] In Nagaland, the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) is contesting from NDA. The BJP under Himanta Biswa has formed a formidable alliance in the Northeastern states that has almost ousted Congress from the region. NDPP should easily retain this seat. [NDPP — 1] 25. ORISSA [ 21 seats] The political space in Odisha is churning like never before. Sensing the upsurge of BJP in the state, and the lethargy in 77-year-old Naveen Babu’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), there has been an exodus of top leaders from BJD to BJP. BJD suffered a major jolt ahead of polls, when six-time Lok Sabha member and Cuttack MP Bhartruhari Mahtab, Odia cine star and two-time Biju Janata Dal MP from Berhampur Sidhant Mohapatra and well-known litterateur of Santali language Padma Shri Damayanti Beshra joined the BJP. Many leaders in BJD are feeling suffocated as the authoritarian rule of Naveen Patnaik has engulfed the organization. Since then, the outflow has not stopped. To list a few, Debasis Nayak, once among the trusted aides of Naveen Babu, former OPCC secretary Prafulla Sunyani, four times MLA and former Odisha minister Pradeep Kumar Panigrahi along with other senior leaders, sitting MLA Arabinda Dhali and Jagannath Nundruka, a top tribal BJD leader. Ramesh Chandra Sai was the fifth legislator under CM Naveen Patnaik to do so. They have complained of their past failed attempts to meet CM Naveen Patnaik, lamenting the obstacles posed by internal party dynamics. Naveen Babu is still a respected, de facto leader in Odisha. However, the fact is, that BJD is the only family-controlled party, where Naveen Babu has not worked on a succession plan. None of his trusted lieutenants see a future in BJD. On the other side, while Congress is dying, under PM Modi’s leadership, BJP offers a positive long-term plan. The popularity of PM Modi is growing in Odisha because of the NDA’s welfare schemes while the popularity of the ruling BJD is declining due to its long reign. There’s a clear anti-incumbency factor against the BJD because of several scams, irregularities, corruption at the official level and deprivation of eligible beneficiaries under various schemes. Pushed to the brink in Odisha and intending to convey that the two erstwhile alliance partners BJP & BJD are still in a tactical understanding, Congress has been pushing for a narrative over the “BJD-BJP nexus,” making zero impact on the ground. If we look at the numbers, from 2009 to 2024, BJD grew (37% to 44%) from 14 to 20 seats at the cost of Congress’s decline (from 33% vote to 26%) from 6 to zero seats. In 2019, riding on a clear Modi wave BJP grew (from 21.5% to 38.5%) from 1 to 8 seats again at the cost of Congress (from 26% to 13.5%), while BJD also lost a couple of percentage vote share. All indications suggest that Odisha is heading for a saffron surge. Riding on the huge popularity of PM Modi and his welfare scheme deliveries, the BJP is expected to gain again at the cost of Congress and BJD both losing a few more percent votes. If my reading is correct, BJP should get around 44–46% votes, followed by BJD with 38–40%. In such a bipolar election, 4–5% vote gap will be big enough to make a heavy dent. With this organic growth of the BJP in the state, supported by a huge Modi-wave, BJP will have an impact in the Assembly elections too. [BJP — 13, BJD — 8, Cong — 0] 26. PUDUCHERRY [1 Seat] The lone seat of Puducherry has always witnessed a direct contest between Congress and All India N.R. Congress (AINRC). BJP is first time contesting this seat, in alliance with AINRC. Although some pollsters are indicating a BJP win, I have my doubts. INC’s V Vaithilingham should win this seat, unlike a huge margin in the last election. [Cong — 1, BJP — 0] 27. PUNJAB [13 Seats] Punjab is another state that is going through deep political churn and a shift of loyalty where the LS election results will not just decide the immediate future of the state but could also have far-reaching implications on the national political scene. The best news for BJP this general election came from Punjab when BJP ended ambiguity about an alliance with Akalis. Corrupt to the core, the Sukhbir and Majithia family are the primary reason for the state of Punjab today! There is a huge sense of relief amongst ordinary Punjabis- the silent majority. Shooting in the foot, Congress and AAP have agreed to share seats in Delhi, Gujarat, and Haryana but will fight against each other in Punjab. Confident AAP decided to go solo after storming to power in Punjab with a landslide victory in the state polls, bagging 92 seats in the 117-member Assembly and trouncing the Congress that managed to win 18 seats. The rapid rise of AAP, led by Bhagwant Mann, in the 2022 elections was a clear indicator of the voters’ desire for change. Given that background, AAP had a certain edge in a multi-cornered contest. However, in a very quick time the feeling of anti-incumbency and diminishing appeal of AAP’s prominent figures could lead to a reversal of fortunes of other political parties now have a crucial opportunity. There’s a unique psychology of Punjabi voters that traditionally rally behind charismatic leaders, when the electorate overwhelmingly supported leaders like the late Parkash Singh Badal, followed by Capt. Amarinder Singh, and most recently, Bhagwant Mann. Currently, Punjab is witnessing a leadership vacuum. With the arrest of AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, Bhagwant Mann is also facing a leadership crisis, but not to the extent of a leaderless Congress, which is in complete disarray, after its Patiala MP Preneet Kaur, three-time MP Ravneet Singh Bittu, and former state finance minister Manpreet Singh Badal joining BJP adds to that unambiguous messaging. Sunil Jakhar provides wise leadership to BJP Punjab, which has primarily been an urban party in the state, the confidence to contest on all 13 seats. The following seats are up for an interesting contest. Ludhiana: Ludhiana has always witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the SAD. However, in the last election, AAP came second pushing SAD to third place. In a big shock to Congress, the grandson of ex-CM of Punjab Beant Singh, and three-time Congress MP, Ravneet Singh Bittu has been fielded by BJP after he left Congress. Amritsar: BJP has fielded highly respected retired diplomat Taranjit Singh Sandhu, a prominent Sikh face from the holy city who had served as Ambassador of India to the US. Curiously, Congress has still not named its candidate, despite Gurjeet Singh Aujla having defeated BJP’s Hardeep Singh Puri in 2019 and Rajinder Chinna in the 2017 by-poll. This time, AAP has announced Punjab Cabinet Minister Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal as its candidate. Gurdaspur: The border constituency has seen a contest between the BJP and Congress in the past few general elections. BJP has replaced its sitting MP Sunny Deol with Thakur Dinesh Singh. Deol defeated then-Congress leader Sunil Jakhar, who now heads the BJP’s Punjab unit. Hoshiyarpur: BJP has been winning this seat since 2014. However, none of the parties have declared their candidates so far. In a four-cornered fight, the BJP has a chance to retain this seat. Jalandhar: BJP has fielded Sushil Kumar Rinku, who had won the Jalandhar By-poll in 2023 on the AAP ticket. No other party has fielded their candidate yet. Bathinda: Another SAD stronghold which Harsimrat Kaur Badal has been winning since 2009. However, in a triangular contest, in which AAP secured 8% votes, the winning margin was reduced to 21 thousand only. An upset is expected on this seat. Patiala: In a triangular contest, Preneet Kaur won this seat on the Congress ticket with a huge margin defeating AAP’s Dharam Vira Gandhi who held this seat in 2014. BJP has fielded her from Patiala after she moved to BJP along with her husband Capt. Amarinder Singh. She has a huge chance of retaining this seat. [AAP — 5–6, BJP — 3–4, Cong — 3–4, SAD — 0–1] 28. RAJASTHAN [25 Seats] In Rajasthan, which sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha, for the second time in a row, Congress could not win even a single seat. BJP won all 25 seats (BJP -24, ally RLP-1) again despite Congress winning the 2018 Assembly Elections just 4 months before the LS election securing a 0.5 % lead over BJP in terms of vote share. I must remind the readers what we heard as popular slogans in 2018 — “Modi Tujhse Bair Nahin, Rani Teri Khair Nahin,” explaining the anti-incumbency was against the state government and not the Modi government. Interestingly, it’s the last time ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is in alliance with Congress (contesting 22 seats) this time along with CPI(M) and Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), all contesting on one seat each. In 2019, BJP improved its vote share to 59% from 55.6% in 2014. Rajasthan once again witnessing a huge Modi wave and is expected to better its vote share. With 60% plus votes, BJP is all set to repeat its 2014 tally of 25 seats. [BJP — 25, Cong — 0] 29. UTTARAKHAND [5 Seats] For the second time in a row, the BJP won all 5 seats of Uttarakhand, increasing its vote share from 55% to 61%. What is more important is that the vote difference ranged from 2 lakh 32 thousand to 3 lakh 40 thousand. There is no contest in Devbhumi. [BJP — 5, Cong — 0] 30. TRIPURA [2 Seats] Since 2018, when the BJP first shocked the political pandits by dethroning the CPI(M) ending their dominance over decades, BJP’s tactical alliance under leaders Hemanta Biswa and Biplab Deb has totally saffronized the state. BJP not only retained its government in the state but also won both the LS seats on its own. This time they are in alliance with another vibrant party from the State, the Tipra Motha Party (TMP). Although the Congress Party is also in alliance with the Left, the NDA allies should easily win their respective seats. [BJP 1, TMP -1,] 31. TELANGANA [17 Seats] With the dominant Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) facing total collapse, and frantic crossovers across party lines, Telangana is set for a very closely contested State this election. Congress Party won an impressive 39% vote share in the last Assembly election clinching a majority in the state, while the BRS declined from a 47% to 32% vote share. But the swing against the BRS appears to have gone both in favour of the BJP (in the Adivasi-dominated areas) and the Congress (in the Muslim-dominated regions). With recent high-profile defections from the BRS to Congress and the BJP, BRS is up for a complete rout. While Mr. Srihari and K. Keshava Rao, who are widely viewed to be KCR’s trusted lieutenant, joined the Congress. Moreover, in less than six months of CM Revanth Reddy’s rule, there’s already restlessness in the public’s perception of the Congress government. While most welfare measures promised by Congress, are yet to be implemented, some also due to the Model Code of Conduct, the public appears to be in a hurry. Important to note that BJP is doubling its vote share election after election. This points to a three-pronged race emerging in Telangana. Assaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, is still a key player, though without any formal alliance. It remains to be seen how its supporters vote in the seats that it is not contesting. While BJP should retain the Adilabad, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, and Secunderabad constituencies. Congress should also be able to retain Nalgonda and Bhongir while adding Zahirabad and Chevella to its kitty. Despite an interesting fight posed by BJP’s enthusiastic candidate Madhavi Lata, AIMIM will retain its traditional Hyderabad constituency! That leaves a triangular contest on 8 seats: Mehboobnagar: Congress’s Ch Vamshichand Reddy is facing a very stiff challenge from the BJP’s DK Aruna, who is state vice-president and the woman face of the saffron party, spent long years in the Congress and knows the inner dynamics of the party very well. Besides, many of the present-day Congress MLAs and cadres from the southern Telangana region have been her proteges and that makes the Congress wary. The sitting BRS MP M Srinivas Reddy has not even been actively campaigning. Medak: BJP candidate M Raghunandan Rao is articulate and has a good following in the region. But the saffron party has not secured many votes in the recent elections and reversing that trend will be a major challenge for him. P Venkataram Reddy of BRS is not considered a very strong candidate. Congress has picked a fresh face — Neelam Madhu — who is reportedly not well-known among the constituents. The fact that it has also not performed well in the last elections doesn’t augur well for the grand old party. This seat is difficult to predict. Malkajgiri: Former Finance and Health Minister in the BRS, Eatala Rajender, is the BJP candidate from this seat, which is part of Greater Hyderabad, and the largest constituency in India with over 31 lakh voters. Both Rajender and the Congress candidate Sunitha Mahender Reddy are non-locals, the former has a greater profile and is known to most people in the constituency. Sunitha Reddy is the wife of former BRS minister Patnam Mahender Reddy. PM Modi’s roadshow in Malkajgiri last month created momentum in Rajender’s favour. Though CM Revanth Reddy was elected as MP from Malkajgiri in 2019, has been burning the midnight oil over his erstwhile constituency, because all the 7 assembly seats under Malkajgiri Lok Sabha constituency were won by the BRS. BJP also secured a good vote share in the last elections here. A loss would be a loss of face and give ammunition to his detractors. Khammam: Sitting BRS MP Nama Nageswara Rao is well-known in this segment. He also secured a good vote share in the last elections. The Congress, which performed well in the recent Assembly elections, winning six out of seven seats under this LS segment, is yet finalise its candidate. BJP’s T Vinod Rao has entered the electoral fray for the first time. The remaining four seats of Pedapalli (SC, Nagarkurnool (SC), Warangal (SC), and Mehboobabad (ST), are reserved seats, with a lot of backward castes and adivasis, which gives BJP a lot of hope. Warangal: Initially considered a Cong vs BRS contest, it has become a three-way fight with the BJP picking former MLA Aroori Ramesh, who was with the BRS. BRS initially announced Kadiyam Kavya as its candidate. But once she moved to Congress and been named their candidate, BRS is yet to announce its candidate. Nagarkunool: The BJP has fielded sitting MP P Ramulu’s son Bharath. But the saffron party against Congress’s Mallu Ravi, a former MP. He is well-known and the party too enjoys good support in this segment. The BRS has allotted the ticket to former IPS officer RS Praveen Kumar, who does not enjoy much support from key BRS leaders. Peddapalli: BRS candidate and former minister Koppula Eshwar is well-known in this segment after having served as an MLA six times. The party has done well here in the last few elections. Congress candidate G Vamshi is contesting for the first time. BJP’s Gomasa Srinivas, on the other hand, harbours hope of defeating his rivals with the support of the SC population. Mahabubabad: It will be a battle between sitting BRS MP Maloth Kavitha and former MPs P Balaram Naik of the Congress. The BJP is not that strong in this segment, but hopes to woo Adivasi voters. [BJP — 8, Cong — 7, BRS — 1, AIMIM — 1] 32. SIKKIM [1 Seat] Although BJP and Congress, both have fielded their candidates, the lone seat of Sikkim will be a contest between Sikkim Karantikari Morcha (SKM) and Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). The SKM which is also part of the NDA, should easily retain this seat. [SKM — 1] With 334 seats already covered, and NDA almost reaching the halfway mark, the writing is on the wall. In the last segment, we’ll discuss the fate of four large and most intriguing states — Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal — covering 209 seats. Keep tracking the space.

Apr 15, 2024
Shwetank Bhushan

General Elections 2024: A Repeat of Modi-Tsunami and Foreseeable Gains in New Constituencies [Part 2]

Political Pundits have failed to understand that with Narendra Modi’s politics of positivity and delivery, and a clear shift in focus from providing doles to fulfilling public aspirations, the Indian electorates have moved on. For both print and electronic media political pundits, the Modi-wave, which was over post-Covid, is returning as a thunderous tsunami. “By the end of 2nd term, even the most popular governments start losing support. Discontent toward governments has also increased in the last few years in the world. India stands out as an exception, where popular support for our government is increasing.” — PM Modi in Newsweek. The consecration of Ram Mandir created a buzz in PM Modi’s political rallies, but his politics is not limited to symbolism only. It is important to note that several of PM Modi’s social welfare programmes, from Aawas to Ujjwala to Shauchalay, are all about women empowerment. The PM has specifically focused on pushing more women to be entrepreneurs. His Lakhpati Didi is an ambitious programme. Besides, the government never tires of recounting that 50% of all beneficiaries, across programs, are women. Legislating on women’s reservation bill or praising women scientists for the success of Chandrayaan3, have all been part of PM Modi’s political pitch. And then, on the other side, there is a gift — Rahul Gandhi — that does not stop giving. The battle for women's vote has found a new leash of life after Rahul Gandhi spoke of fighting “Shakti in Hindu dharma”. Despite Congress’s several attempts to explain what Rahul Gandhi meant, the BJP charge, led by none other than Prime Minister Modi has been unrelenting. On the contrary, the perception of the opposition was best summed up by none other than the chief Modi-baiter Rajdeep Sardesai, who he says: “While anti-Modiism binds the opposition at the top, on the ground contradictions have scarcely melted away. AAP vs Congress in Punjab, Trinamool Congress vs Left, Congress combined in Bengal, and even the Left and Congress in Kerala, are at loggerheads. Thirdly, the opposition doesn’t come under into the democracy in danger or ‘loktantr khatre mein hai’ debate with clean hands. Charges of autocratic behaviour, of targeting journalists, of targeting cartoonists, of targeting dissenting voices have been made against several opposition chief ministers in the last decade. Whether be it in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, or Maharashtra. When Maharashtra was under the MVA rule, they have all faced punitive actions. ‘Sab Neta Chor Hain.’ All politicians are thieves became a rallying cry, for those who are increasingly cynical about our ruling elite. Then Mr. Kejriwal was the anti-establishment outsider, railing against the same forces, he is now aligned with. In a sense, the wheel has come full circle. From being the face of an anti-corruption andolan, Kejriwal now seeks to erase the Delhi Liquor Scam taint in the company of those very forces, he was once vociferously accusing of corruption. You might have seen on the stage, at the Ram Leela, many of the people Kejriwal would say — “inko to arrest karna chahiye,” now those very people were standing up for him. Please tell me, how is such a political arrangement, that is primarily aimed at self-preservation, is going to be truly credible or even sustainable? This is the question the opposition must ask itself.” Honestly speaking, nothing is working for the Congress-led IN.D.I. alliance. And it seems that the opposition is playing into the hands of the BJP, once again. It would be interesting to see how the fight for women’s vote shapes up in the days ahead. For now, the BJP and the PM have grabbed the opportunity with both hands. On one side where the INDI Block is withering with acute infighting state after state, PM Modi is covering 2–3 states every day with his mega rallies and roadshows. Given the context, we proceed to analyse the prospects of another 132 seats covering 9 States and Union Territories. 12. Gujarat [ 26 Seats] Honestly, there’s no point wasting time in trying to find reasons. Gujarat belongs to PM Modi. Once again, with around two-thirds vote share, it is going to give all 26 seats to its beloved leader. [ BJP — 26, INC — 0] 13. Haryana [10 Seats] Haryana is an agrarian state. But over the years it has become more dependent on the industry and services sectors. Witnessing BJP has the upper hand in the state, even before the 2019 General Elections, many prominent leaders of Congress connected to the ground have switched sides to join the BJP. With leaders like Randeep Singh Surjewala and Shelja Kumari as the face of the party, Congress is already on the back foot. Fearing total decimation, it allied with the AAP this time, which is now facing an existential crisis after its supremo was jailed in the Delhi liquor gate scam. If Congress had any chance in the state, it was the Rohtak seat from where Deepender Singh Hooda is contesting. He held this seat both in 2019 and 2014 and lost to the incumbent Arvind Sharma by a meagre 7,500 votes in 2019. But Congress’s tie-up with AAP and the brazenness with which Arvind Kejriwal is clinging to his CM Chair, makes all Congress’s claims fall flat. Dushyant Chautala’s JJP and Abhay Singh Chautala’s INLD are also in the fray. The infighting within the Chautala family has already resulted in fragmented Jat votes. After Bharat Ratna to Late Choudhary Charan Singh, and Jayant Choudhary allying with the BJP in UP, the Jat votes will further consolidate behind the BJP both in Western UP and Haryana. In 2019 BJP secured a mammoth 58% vote share bagging all the 10 seats of the state. This time too, it will fetch no less vote share sweeping Haryana. [BJP — 10, Congress — 0] 14. Himachal Pradesh [4 Seats] The polling in the hilly Himachal Pradesh will be held in the last phase on June 1. Eyeing once again a victory in all four parliamentary constituencies in the state, the confident BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and focusing its campaign entirely on publicising the achievements of the Modi-led central government. Congress is hoping to reverse its abysmal non-performance of 2014 and 2019, but there are no signs of it. BJP secured 70% votes in 2019, winning all the four constituencies by more than 3 lakh votes. Mandi: This constituency went to by poll in 2021 after the unfortunate demise of its two-time sitting MP Ram Swaroop Sharma. Congress’s Pratibha Singh won the by-poll election. That made BJP field fiercely vocal actor Kangana Ranaut from this seat, which has created a buzz since then. Without any delay, the national spokesperson of the Congress party, Supriya Shrinate made an uncouth, sexist remark on the actor. The Congress party has not even distanced itself from the remark but hideously tried to defend Shrinate. The top leadership of Congress, including Sonia Gandhi have also decided to maintain radio silence. Mandi was anyway BJP’s secured seat, but the impact of these remarks is not going to hurt Congress only in Mandi. Congress has fielded Pratibha Singh’s son Vikramaditya Singh against Kangana, which appears to be a punishment. Vikramaditya sports a saffron scarf, his social media posts frequently begin or end with ‘Jai Sri Ram,’ and was also the only Congress leader to have defied party dictate not to attend the consecration of the Ram Mandir held at Ayodhya. BJP is sweeping the state once again with more than two thirds vote share. [BJP — 4, Congress — 0] 15. Jharkhand [14 Seats] The reality of AbkiBaar400Paar is set to get a boost with the unabated saffron surge in the coming elections in the mineral-rich state of Jharkhand. Led by Congress, the INDI Alliance has declared seat sharing. Congress to contest 7 seats, Jharkhand Mukti Morch 4, and one seat each to Lalu’s RJD and CPI (M-L). The alliance is in complete disarray since the arrest of sitting Chief Minister Hemant Soren, accused of grievous corruption charges. Both the ST reserved constituencies of Santhal Pargana Division — Rajmahal and Dumka, were Shibu Soren family’s pocket borough. The first shock came in 2019 when Shibu Soren lost Dumka. This time the daughter-in-law of JMM patriarch, Sita Soren is challenging his party from Dumka on BJP Ticket. With senior Soren defunct, and junior Soren under arrest, BJP should be able to breach Rajmahal also this time. Like last time, BJP’s all-season ally — AJSU has fielded its only candidate from Giridih. It will easily win the seat, which it won with a thumping margin of over 2.5 lakh votes in 2019. The return of Babulal Marandi to BJP has been a big plus. The BJP is making another smart move by drawing their opponents from other political parties into the race. Geeta Koda, wife of world-famous Madhu Koda won the only seat for Congress in 2019 — the Singhbhum ST seat. Madhu Koda first won this seat in 2009 as an independent. To everyone’s surprise, Geeta Koda left the grand old party and joined the BJP and is all set to contest the same seat on the BJP ticket. All these developments tell you about the determination to achieve — Abki Baar 400 Paar. Beyond these political equations, the tribal movement toward BJP is visible on the ground. Under the “अंधेरे से उजाले की ओर” (from Dark to Light) programme, many villages in Jharkhand that were affected by Naxalism are today getting electricity and water from the tap. Students can study, and women can cook. These are the main driving forces for voters to rely on PM Modi’s guarantee. No wonder, the BJP could up its vote share from 40% in 2014 to 56% in 2019, which is further rising. This is a reflection of the people’s desire for change in the state. Now the most unsung fact about this state with its huge tribal population. Since 1990, the damage which the Congress suffered in Jharkhand has been permanent. The Ram Janmabhoomi push for the BJP was far more significant in regions that went to Jharkhand than the parts that stayed in Bihar. Given this background, the BJP would not only be harping but also gain a lot of support for the construction and consecration of Ram Lalla’s Temple in Ayodhya. Let pollsters say what they wish to, I am sticking my neck out and predicting a complete rout of the INDI alliance from Jharkhand. [BJP — 13, AJSU -1] 16. Karnataka [28 Seats] Karnataka votes differently in Assembly and General elections. Though it switches sides in Assembly elections, it has always backed BJP in the General elections and the support is only growing every 5 years. In 2019, BJP won 25 seats out of 27 seats it contested with 51.5% vote share. One seat of Mandya was won by the Independent, supported by the BJP. Of the remaining two seats, one seat of Bangalore Rural was won by the Congress Party, while the Hassan seat went to JDS. Despite being in an alliance, Congress and JDS could fetch only 32% and 10% votes respectively. There are 20 seats in Karnataka that BJP wins election after election and only increasing its vote margin. In 2019, except Koppal and Bellary, it won all the seats with an average of 15% vote margin. These can easily be considered strong BJP bastions, and the result is not going to be any different. We’ll focus on the remaining seats including Koppal and Bellary. This time JDS is part of the NDA alliance, which, strategically appears to be much stronger than even BJP, JDU and LJP in Bihar. First, JDS is contesting the 3 seats — Hassan, Mandya, and Kolar. Hassan: Typically, HD Deve Gowda’s seat, was won by JDS 2019 with 52% votes. BJP is the second with 42% votes. In 2014 also it won in a triangular fight against BJP and Congress. In this election, being in the NDA alliance, JDS should win this seat with more than a 20% margin. Mandya: This again is a JDS stronghold which it won in 2009, 2013 by-election, 2014, 2018 by-election. BJP stopped JDS’s juggernaut by choosing not to contest this seat and supported independent candidate actor turned politician Sumalatha Ambareesh. She defeated Nikhil Kumaraswamy by more than 1.25 Lakh votes. HD Kumaraswamy, contesting in alliance with BJP, JDS should win this seat too with more than 15–20% margin. Kolar: A traditional Congress seat, which it won in 2009 and 2014 in a triangular contest. Important that both in 2009 and 2014 the BJP & JDS vote combined were 15–20% more than Congress. But the voter’s loyalty does shift. What is even more important is that in 2019, BJP won this seat by a 16% vote margin, despite Congress and JDS being in alliance. JDS should win this seat with ease. Now let’s see if there’s any contest on other seats where the BJP is contesting directly against Congress in JDS’s alliance. BJP wins Koppal, even if the margin is not as big as other seats. And with Shriramulu coming back to the BJP winning Bellary should be a cakewalk. Gulbarga: Present Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge won this seat in 2009 and 2014 in a close contest against BJP, where JDS does not have much support. However, in 2019, Mr. Kharge was defeated by the BJP by more than 8% vote share. If Khadge Ji was any confident, he would not have opted not to contest the election at all. Tumkur: Typically, a Congress seat. However, despite being in alliance with Congress, BJP defeated former PM and JDS stalwart HD Deve Gowda in a close contest in 2019. This time, JDS also being in alliance, BJP should easily win this seat. Chikballapur: It has been Congress veteran Veerappa Moily’s seat. He won this seat in 2009 and 2014 in triangular, but close contests between Congress, BJP, and JDS. The Vote share of Congress, BJP and JDS in 2009 and 2014 were 39%, 34%, 19%; and 34%, 33% and 27% respectively. Then came the Modi wave in 2019, and the BJP defeated Mr. Moily (in JDS’s support) by a 14% margin. In this election with Mr. Moily not being in the fray, the BJP-JDS alliance in direct contest with Congress should win this seat by a 20% margin. Banglore Rural: This seat is Congress’s strongest seat. Since HD Kumaraswamy resigned in 2013, after winning the seat in 2009, Congress’s D.K. Suresh has won this seat in 2013 by-poll, 2014, and 2019, every time with a thick margin. Congress should be able to win this seat again. The only factor that might come in their way, is the BJP, JDS alliance and a stronger pro-incumbency in BJP’s favour. I won’t be surprised if Congress draws a zero! [BJP — 24, JDS — 3, Congress — 1] 17. Kerala [20 Seats] All seats in Kerala, that has traditionally followed a revolving-door politics between the UDF and LDF will vote in the second phase on April 26. The BJP is seeking to make a forceful entry looking to break its Kerala jinx, where it has never won a parliamentary seat. It is contesting 16 seats, and its ally Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) will contest four seats. BJP’s three-fold strategy is to woo the Christian community, tap young voters and hard sell Modi’s brand of development. It is important to notice that despite the scorching heat, thousands of voters came out on the streets to witness Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s massive roadshow. Dressed up in traditional Mundu, PM Modi, didn’t disappoint them. During his two-day visit to Kerala, he held a massive roadshow and also offered prayers in two prominent temples in Thrissur. During this visit, PM Modi also launched infrastructure projects- the state’s first Vande Bharat Express, a Digital Park and the country’s first water metro project. He knows that infrastructure is one visible development that shows progress. It also punctured the Left’s propaganda of biased treatment by the central government. Kerala has a high minority population of 45% (27% Muslims and 18% Christians) where religion/community-based parties such as IUML (Muslims) and Kerala Congress (Christian) play a crucial role in state politics. Both being in alliance with UDF, Muslims and Christians generally vote more for them. In 2021, the LDF received 50% Muslim and 44% Christian community support against 45% and 43% support respectively for the Congress. It was primarily because of the weakening of the Congress nationally, and the good work done by the Left Government during the peak of COVID-19. If the Muslim community’s shift towards LDF in 2021 is permanent, it could change the political landscape in the state forever. In that case, IUML may also ditch Congress and join the CPM-led front. This is where the BJP will have a real opportunity to draw the Hindu votes from CPM. To protect that, the UDF leaders seem to have a backroom negotiation with the SDPI, the political wing of the banned terror outfit PFI. Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) has extended its support to Congress in Kerala. Christians and other non-Muslim communities have also started looking for other alternatives. Sensing that insecurity in the community has increased manifold, the BJP has been attempting to make inroads into Christian votes. The party hopes that the PM’s meetings with top bishops and the entry of young leaders like Anil Antony from Congress and Victor T. Thomas from Kerala Kangress (Christian) could help it woo the Christian community. The Left has had a significant proportion of its votes coming from the Ezhavas (20%) among Hindu voters. Over the years, the BJP has managed to make marginal inroads into the Nairs and Ezhavas (OBC) through an alliance with BDJS. The Congress-led United Democratic Front is looking to repeat its 2019 Lok Sabha performance, where it won 19 of the 20 seats in the state. In Kerala, the INDI Alliance partners Congress, and the Left Parties are at loggerheads. CPI(M) leaders have admitted that they are contesting the polls to retain the party’s national status and election symbol. The ED has initiated a probe against Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter Veena for money laundering. Congress has accused the BJP of trying to pressure the CPI(M), which is why Vijayan is attacking Rahul and Congress for speaking BJP’s tone. There are also local issues like the waste management scam, which is gaining traction against the scam-tainted CPI(M). In a way, 2019 was a lottery for Congress in Kerala. Kerala thought that Modi was a one-time wonder, and they had a chance of electing a potential PM in Rahul Gandhi. There was also anger against the CPI-M on the Sabarimala issue, and many traditional Hindu voters of the Left also voted for the Congress, which resulted in UDF winning 19/20 LS seats. Otherwise, how in less than two years people would change their attitude and in the subsequent assembly election, the Congress won only 21 out of 146 assembly seats? Since then, Congress is on the decline. The UDF is likely to see a loss of 5–6% of votes over the past five years, the LDF may witness a marginal increase. The NDA will also witness a substantial increase of votes to reach the 20% plus range. Knowing that it does still not yet have the organizational heft of its rivals, BJP has chosen to focus on only a handful of seats — Palakkad, Kasargod, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, and Thiruvananthapuram — that have shown promise in the past. Thrissur is one such constituency. On his last visit, PM Modi attended the wedding of actor turned politician Suresh Gopi’s (BJP candidate from Thrissur) daughter in Guruvayur. In 2019 Suresh Gopi garnered 28.2%, and this time too his “star status” can help the party bump up its vote share. The triangular contest in Thiruvananthapuram between the incumbent Shashi Tharoor, BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar and the Left Democratic Front’s candidate Pannyan Raveendran, is going to be the most interesting and fierce. Since LDF has put all its might campaigning against Mr Tharoor, BJP has an outside chance of being the beneficiary where it was second in the last General election. In Pathaanamthitta also, the fight is going to be triangular. BJP had secured almost 3 lakh (29%) votes last election. With Anil Anthony being in the fray, the BJP has a strong chance of winning this seat. In Palakkad and Kasargod also, BJP’s vote share is rapidly rising every election. Whether it will be able to cross the line would depend on the momentum on the ground that BJP can create this election. [UDF: INC –9, IUML — 2; LDF: CPIM — 6, CPI — 1; BJP -2] 18. Lakshadweep [1 Seat] With less than 50 thousand voters, and the majority being Muslims, BJP is not in the fray. The fun part is both the INDI partners INC and NCP(SP) have put up their candidates. NDA partner NCP (Ajit Pawar) also has put up its candidate. The seat should go to the incumbent NCP (SP) who has been winning this seat since 2014 against INC. [NCP(SP) — 1] 19. Madhya Pradesh [29 Seats] In 2019, the BJP recorded its best performance in MP by winning 28 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats with a vote share of 58%. It bettered its performance from 2014 when it secured 54% votes and 27 seats. In 2018, the Congress party returned to power in the State after a break of 15 years, riding on candidate-level anti-incumbency and a lot of voters chose NOTA. In a state where 72% of voters live in villages, the massive crash in rates of agricultural commodities had angered the farmers. However, the target of their ire was not Mr. Modi. Congress coming to power in MP for a small period was a blessing in disguise. In 100 days, Congress government started facing flak for its betrayal of loan waiver, which the party had promised during the election. Then colossal cash being seized in the IT raids from the close aide of CM Kamalnath’s premises, Congress has exposed itself completely and the voters are going to be wary of it for some more time. It is interesting to note that after 1984, 11 seats in 2009 was Congress’s best performance. Even when Congress was in power in MP, the BJP did much better in the LS elections of 1996, 1998 and 1999. The Congress party’s leadership mostly includes Rajputs and Brahmins, while the BJP has a long line of backward caste leaders including — Babulal Gaur, Uma Bharati, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan — to consolidate the Hindu votes. The inclusion of Jyotiraditya Scindhia has further consolidated the party’s vote base. BJP is facing a fight on 2–3 seats including Muraina, Ratlam, and Chhindwara. Chhindwara is the only seat that Congress’s Nakul Nath won last time with a margin of 37 thousand votes. At the same time, BJP’s average win margin was above 2 lakh votes. Like 2019, 2024 also appears to be yet another “wave-election,” and Narendra Modi’s popularity in the state is the biggest factor. This time too BJP is likely to secure nearly 60% vote share comfortably, winning all 29 seats. [BJP — 29, INC — 0] Summary so far- Of 243 Seats, NDA is winning 206 — Strike Rate 85% Of 189 seats BJP contesting, expected to win 167 — Strike rate 88%. INDI Alliance expected to win 17 of 243. Strike Rate 7% Congress is to win 12 so far. Here’s the link to Part 1 of the series, where we analysed 105 seats covering 11 State and Union Territories- General Elections 2024 A Repeat of Modi-Tsunami and Foreseeable Gains in New Constituencies [Part 1] (myind.net) More to follow soon. Watch this space!

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